CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I have a bad , depressing feeling about this . I lost all the positive vibes I was feeling yesterday. Are you thinking that falls on the backside tomorrow night? You may get a couple tomorrow and then maybe some late tomorrow night. But it’s marginal there so wait until 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Euro so bad compared to what it used to be…getting schooled by almost everything now. It is normal for a model to tick 15 miles ...they always do . We have everything under a microscope . Plus models trended toward euro ML tracks yesterday pm as nam and gfs went NW with those My hope is that 3z to 12z Saturday tickles East a tad as we get closer to 36 hours out for that time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You may get a couple tomorrow and then maybe some late tomorrow night. But it’s marginal there so wait until 12z. Probably will just start drinking now 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It is normal for a model to tick 15 miles ...they always do . We have everything under a microscope . Plus models trended toward euro ML tracks yesterday pm. Ya pickles…I’m not buying that. I’m not talking about tics. The model is mediocre now…at best. It’s lost ground over the years. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Probably will just start drinking now You worry way too much about stuff that’s completely out of your control lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya pickles…I’m not buying that. I’m not talking about tics. The model is mediocre now…at best. It’s lost ground over the years. you posted it in relation to this storm and overnite model runs , no ? It earned the nickname dr no a long time ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Probably will just start drinking now That's the spirit! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I have no skin in this game so it’s easy for me to say. I will take the over from ORH north and especially where Dave and Ineedsnow (what’s your real dam name lol) are. 1-3”?? instill think Kevin could see 2-3 possible. It really is, ineedsnow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It really is, ineedsnow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Latest BOX map Still looks lame Box has legitimate concerns about the impact of "warm" air from the ocean impacting snowfall totals. At this point they are being conservative which seems to be the way to go as things stand right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That's the spirit! Beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya pickles…I’m not buying that. I’m not talking about tics. The model is mediocre now…at best. It’s lost ground over the years. You should write a letter to the folks at ECMWF and tell them how you really feel 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You worry way too much about stuff that’s completely out of your control lol. Weather is always a worry to me. I literally can’t help it. It’s just inherently built into my programming . When it snows, I worry about when it might melt, when it’s supposed to snow I worry about Ray getting more, when it’s supposed to be windy I worry about what if if there’s no damage 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 That LR look ( now medium range ) is impressive , Has trended well as it’s gotten closer . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: you posted it in relation to this storm and overnite model runs , no ? It earned the nickname dr no a long time ago Euro did get schooled overall on the track in this event. It’s basically gone 70% toward the GFS in the past 48 hours while the GFS only went a little toward the Euro. It remains to be seen if those warm thermals verify though it should be noted that the euro’s thermals are definitely a solid tick cooler than they were yesterday at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Box has legitimate concerns about the impact of "warm" air from the ocean impacting snowfall totals. At this point they are being conservative which seems to be the way to go as things stand right now. Yeah. I read their AFD. I understand that they are being conservative. I think they will be wrong WRT my backyard...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro did get schooled overall on the track in this event. It’s basically gone 70% toward the GFS in the past 48 hours while the GFS only went a little toward the Euro. It remains to be seen if those warm thermals verify though it should be noted that the euro’s thermals are definitely a solid tick cooler than they were yesterday at this point. Did Reggie cool or still torched at 925? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro did get schooled overall on the track in this event. It’s basically gone 70% toward the GFS in the past 48 hours while the GFS only went a little toward the Euro. It remains to be seen if those warm thermals verify though it should be noted that the euro’s thermals are definitely a solid tick cooler than they were yesterday at this point. It was trying to get 925 0C to KLCI lol. I’m not sure of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro did get schooled overall on the track in this event. It’s basically gone 70% toward the GFS in the past 48 hours while the GFS only went a little toward the Euro. It remains to be seen if those warm thermals verify though it should be noted that the euro’s thermals are definitely a solid tick cooler than they were yesterday at this point. I mean gfs took this to bench mark for a couple runs ..then it went NW 100 miles over 18 hours For its sat am position . I just wouldn’t say gfs schooled it . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Weather is always a worry to me. I literally can’t help it. It’s just inherently built into my programming . When it snows, I worry about when it might melt, when it’s supposed to snow I worry about Ray getting more, when it’s supposed to be windy I worry about what if if there’s no damage ...and you do not have control over any of that so there is no sense in worrying about something that you have no control over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Weather is always a worry to me. I literally can’t help it. It’s just inherently built into my programming . When it snows, I worry about when it might melt, when it’s supposed to snow I worry about Ray getting more, when it’s supposed to be windy I worry about what if if there’s no damage There it is. I can’t believe you worry about Ray lol. Anyways just jumped to 40 after a dusting of snow last night. Will be all a dream shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 9 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said: I remember talking about that in some thread last year, curious what the outcome was. I remember that too. Unfortunately, I couldn't remember where the newspaper articles were from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Weather is always a worry to me. I literally can’t help it. It’s just inherently built into my programming . When it snows, I worry about when it might melt, when it’s supposed to snow I worry about Ray getting more, when it’s supposed to be windy I worry about what if if there’s no damage What a melt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Kev is going through what I did on Sunday and Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Who cares about who gets more. You should worry about the track of a low, not who gets the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 BTV's latest map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What a melt. Actually a bit sad, casts a shadow over the room. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Probably will just start drinking now Well it’s practically lunch time for you now anyhow 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Its hard for me to say , but tracking the storm and watching So many models roll out for the 3 days leading up to a storm seems almost as enjoyable as the storm itself 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Beer wake and bake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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