TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 12:14 AM, Damage In Tolland said: It’ll be right . The one time it’s right will be this Expand Beer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 12:49 AM, Stash said: Frequently shadowed off the Greens. Many apply it to Alb too, but they rarely shadow much unless it's a screaming east wind. The 'Dacks through the Greens should really clean up with this one. Expand Woodford VT should clean up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 11:40 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: That’s the same where I am. I can literally drive five minutes and be at 1000’ in Colrain. It’s maddening sometimes but I like my house and its proximity to downtown Greenfield so we happy. Expand They should rename Methuen to Coldrain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Back to looking at 3 bedroom new constructions over 1kft on Zillow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 12:53 AM, Johnno said: Woodford VT should clean up Expand Tiny town, but you're right, they do in most setups. I think they're over 2000' too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 10:16 PM, CT Rain said: In CT? The Rt 10 corridor is pretty low elevation. That area rarely does well. Expand I'm really just speaking of Granby/Simsbury. Storms like this over the years I've seem more mimic closer to the Hartland climate than the valley... but its a fine line craps shoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 12:40 AM, CoastalWx said: I know and I’m trying to see why. But it’s stubborn so it’s keying on something. The only thing I can see (this is for 925) is that George’s bank buoy is 66F. 925 briefly comes from that direction. Maybe the source region is sort of overriding what we typically expect for climo temps? Although that doesn’t totally explain surface temps with winds that are more ENE. That would keep lower level temps cooler. Anyways just something I noticed. I guess we’ll see how 00z looks. Expand It’s just weird to see heavy precip falling with like -3 (or even colder early on) 850 temps and -1C 925 temps and virtually none of that translating down via latent cooling. It’s bizarre. I know euro eventually warms it at 925 quite a bit but early on it’s hanging just below 0C. But then it just rips to like +2 while 850 temps are still -2 or -3. Lol. Like i was thinking back to the last negative bust in a marginal storm for ORH hills and that was March 2, 2018…but the difference in that one was we were relying solely on dynamically cooling the atmosphere in the mid-levels and then translating it downward. We had temps in the 50s like 12 hours before it started, lol. It just never quite dynamically cooled enough until very late in the event. In this event, we already have cold in place prior to the storm…we’re not “waiting” for it. We’re trying to fight the low level WAA with dynamics and ageo flow but it doesn’t work at all in the euro runs. It’s that type of negative bust I can rarely ever recall. I’m honestly trying to think of one. Feb 22, 2009 maybe/sort of? But even that one dumped 6”+ in N ORH county…ORH itself was sloppier like 3” of glop…but that one had a sfc low going over our Fanny almost. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 12:43 AM, TalcottWx said: God. That hurts to read. But you are correct. Expand Most likely, probably...but it is worth watching. I've seen many times over many years in the area where we do better than expected. However if the cutoff really ends up as sharp as the HRRR then we'll both be joy riding just west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 12:53 AM, Johnno said: Woodford VT should clean up Expand When doesn’t it? It’s the snowiest place in CNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 I don't get the low level temps modeled. As Will said something is off. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 1:04 AM, UnitedWx said: Most likely, probably...but it is worth watching. I've seen many times over many years in the area where we do better than expected. However if the cutoff really ends up as sharp as the HRRR then we'll both be joy riding just west Expand Idk if we should take the vintage beetle, maybe one with awd for this trip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 12:48 AM, TalcottWx said: I'm holding out hope, Like a coke addict licking lint balls off the floor when his dealer is Mia. Expand Oddly specific. lol On 12/15/2022 at 12:48 AM, TalcottWx said: I will sports bet and lose money trading stock options to fill the void. Expand Loss porn ftw! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 1:07 AM, TalcottWx said: Idk if we should take the vintage beetle, maybe one with awd for this trip Expand They're awesome in the snow, lots of fun! I have snows on my Vanagon so that could be a blast lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 12:49 AM, TalcottWx said: Luke, I am your father. Expand Shrooms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 1:09 AM, UnitedWx said: They're awesome in the snow, lots of fun! I have snows on my Vanagon so that could be a blast lol Expand The most fun vehicle I have driven in the snow is a big old Buick LeSabre. It was like driving a tank through the snow while sitting on a leather couch. FWD is all you need since it's so damn heavy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 1:03 AM, ORH_wxman said: It’s just weird to see heavy precip falling with like -3 (or even colder early on) 850 temps and -1C 925 temps and virtually none of that translating down via latent cooling. It’s bizarre. I know euro eventually warms it at 925 quite a bit but early on it’s hanging just below 0C. But then it just rips to like +2 while 850 temps are still -2 or -3. Lol. Like i was thinking back to the last negative bust in a marginal storm for ORH hills and that was March 2, 2018…but the difference in that one was we were relying solely on dynamically cooling the atmosphere in the mid-levels and then translating it downward. We had temps in the 50s like 12 hours before it started, lol. It just never quite dynamically cooled enough until very late in the event. In this event, we already have cold in place prior to the storm…we’re not “waiting” for it. We’re trying to fight the low level WAA with dynamics and ageo flow but it doesn’t work at all in the euro runs. It’s that type of negative bust I can rarely ever recall. I’m honestly trying to think of one. Feb 22, 2009 maybe/sort of? But even that one dumped 6”+ in N ORH county…ORH itself was sloppier like 3” of glop…but that one had a sfc low going over our Fanny almost. Expand I also noticed the 6hr qpf progs never quite touch half inch QPF near ORH. I feel like I want to see more than that fall in 6 hrs to help suggest dynamics will come into play. Just trying to talk it through and see what’s going on because yeah…..it’s a head scratcher with thermals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 1:16 AM, CoastalWx said: I also noticed the 6hr qpf progs never quite touch half inch QPF near ORH. I feel like I want to see more than that fall in 6 hrs to help suggest dynamics will come into play. Just trying to talk it through and see what’s going on because yeah…..it’s a head scratcher with thermals. Expand Are any mesoscale models in range that suggest euro is off yet what were the 925’s /850’s in tHat march 2018 nor’easter when the airmass sucked day before and I drove out to hunter to get pasted as only the Berks In Sne got hit as 34 catpaws hit ORH, just as modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 1:04 AM, UnitedWx said: Most likely, probably...but it is worth watching. I've seen many times over many years in the area where we do better than expected. However if the cutoff really ends up as sharp as the HRRR then we'll both be joy riding just west Expand Will, Scooter would both probably admit there is still bust potential here. I just don't think the trend has been encouraging. But overnight runs will be the best of the best to follow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 1:20 AM, TalcottWx said: Will, Scooter would both probably admit there is still bust potential here. I just don't think the trend has been encouraging. But overnight runs will be the best of the best to follow. Expand If only you lobbied for a place with respectable elevation last year , using all your tools of persuasion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 1:12 AM, PowderBeard said: The most fun vehicle I have driven in the snow is a big old Buick LeSabre. It was like driving a tank through the snow while sitting on a leather couch. FWD is all you need since it's so damn heavy. Expand I drove a 1997 red mercury villager to high school in 2010. Broke down in middle of rush hour in Seaport pushed to troop Barrick never started again. Later enshrined as best car in ha yearbook. The bang bus. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Jay are you able to safely take a weenie drive in your vehicle Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 1:25 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Jay are you able to safely take a weenie drive in your vehicle Friday Expand I have to check with my wife first 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 1:27 AM, TalcottWx said: I have to check with my wife first Expand Dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 1:18 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Are any mesoscale models in range that suggest euro is off yet what were the 925’s /850’s in tHat march 2018 nor’easter when the airmass sucked day before and I drove out to hunter to get pasted as only the Berks In Sne got hit as 34 catpaws hit ORH, just as modeled Expand Oh that was the monster first nor’easter. God that was intense. Airmass May have been close. SSTs were cooler as they usually are in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 1:22 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: If only you lobbied for a place with respectable elevation last year , using all your tools of persuasion Expand About 5 years ago I had friends, who are snow lovers, that had affordable options on two different houses. One up in Heath at 1200’ and one in Shelburne at 800’. They were into Winter sports and they knew that I was really into weather so we talked a bit about ideal locations. They ended up buying the house in Shelburne figuring a few hundred feet could not make that big of a difference. Probably a poor decision. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 12:49 AM, TalcottWx said: Luke, I am your mother. Expand Seriously? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 1:27 AM, TalcottWx said: I have to check with my wife first Expand Do you need to get her to ok getting your nutsack for an hour or two? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
met_fan Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 1:31 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: About 5 years ago I had friends, who are snow lovers, that had affordable options on two different houses. One up in Heath at 1200’ and one in Shelburne at 800’. They were into Winter sports and they knew that I was really into weather so we talked a bit about ideal locations. They ended up buying the house in Shelburne figuring a few hundred feet could not make that big of a difference. Probably a poor decision. Heath is approaching the outskirts of civilization (at least for Massachusetts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 1:31 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: About 5 years ago I had friends, who are snow lovers, that had affordable options on two different houses. One up in Heath at 1200’ and one in Shelburne at 800’. They were into Winter sports and they knew that I was really into weather so we talked a bit about ideal locations. They ended up buying the house in Shelburne figuring a few hundred feet could not make that big of a difference. Probably a poor decision. Expand That stretch from Heath west out to Florida is a special area. And it's strange because Berkshire East doesn't seem to get it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 12:56 AM, Stash said: Tiny town, but you're right, they do in most setups. I think they're over 2000' too. Expand They are. Big snowmobile destination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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