Preliminarily ... a medium impact partial Miller B, Friday

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I know my elevation isn’t great but I am 12 miles from the Vermont border and this is my forecast from BOX. 

I don’t know why folks get so hung up on those in situations like this…they’re a joke.  They’ll need to update that later on, and if they don’t it’s gonna be very wrong. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Your Boston WCVB map

[dryslot]

43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not even a bump…just wiped with it, flushed it, and started from scratch.

I was a bit surprise they went balls in right now, I mean the trend has been on guidance to bump up qpf but they may already hit the ceiling early on I think.

[Damage In Tolland]

This area could see 2” or 10”. It’s either 32.7 paste or 33.2 rain with back end snow . Just wish there was clarity 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Your Boston WCVB map

Eric Fisher’s on WBZ was similar.  

[ineedsnow]

[ORH_wxman]

It’s hard to imagine towns like Gardner/Winchendon/Ashburnham getting less than 6” without a good bump NW on model guidance. Basically all those towns N of rt 2 there. 
 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Your Boston WCVB map

That’s in line with BOX.  Who knows, maybe there’s a full mid-level torch coming and this disappoints most outside of NNE. 
Winter rain is a dish best served cold.

[powderfreak]

18z Canadian HRRR at 48 hours… that’s just a wild boundary between 20” and nothing in the Berkshires.  Then also Hudson Valley to Catskills.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s hard to imagine towns like Gardner/Winchendon/Ashburnham getting less than 6” without a good bump NW on model guidance. Basically all those towns N of rt 2 there. 
 

 

Yeah, downtown Gardener is close to 1000’ I think. Fitchburg and Leominster only around 500’?  
I guess we could see some huge gradients with this depending on how it plays out.  

[Snowcrazed71]

It's definitely a done deal here. I thought maybe we'd see some accumulating snow at least on the back end. But it's elevation dependent for sure. Even at my elevation of 550 is not going to work where I'm at.

[ineedsnow]

Precipitation...

Complex forecast for Friday into Saturday, with some lingering
uncertainty in the details. Temperatures in the lowest levels of
the atmosphere will marginally support snow, especially during
the daytime hours. Thus, accumulation snowfall across southern
New England will be very elevation-dependent. Expecting a sharp
gradient between where the snowfall accumulates significantly,
versus those that are mainly rain. A small change in temperature
could lead to a large change in snowfall. Will need to monitor
temperatures closely through this event.

At present, confined significant snowfall accumulations at
elevations at or above 1,000 ft. The consistency of the snowfall
for most should be heavy and wet, trending to a drier snowfall
at the highest elevations of southern New England. This may
change with later forecasts, so stay tuned

[TalcottWx]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

OK, put me in the padded room. So close. Yet so far. I would be disappointed. Can't lie. Especially with the track. Would usually probably do better on this most times around. Could be a big big disappointment here compared to the relative excitement I had getting the WSW notification on my phone. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

18z Canadian HRRR at 48 hours… that’s just a wild boundary between 20” and nothing in the Berkshires.  Then also Hudson Valley to Catskills.

Yeah, that’s wild. You not only need elevation but plenty of W longitude to get anything significant.  
Mitch ftw, absolute porkage in Albany. I’m surprised there’s not a little gray dot of screwage over Bennington.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, that’s wild. You not only need elevation but plenty of W longitude to get anything significant.  
Mitch ftw, absolute porkage in Albany. I’m surprised there’s not a little gray dot of screwage over Bennington.

It’s pretty close with 4” at DDH right near the NY/VT border, with the full hole a few miles west of there. There’s actually sleet in that model for DDH on the downslope.

[PowderBeard]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

18z Canadian HRRR at 48 hours… that’s just a wild boundary between 20” and nothing in the Berkshires.  Then also Hudson Valley to Catskills.

The radar image in the last few frames is nuts. Gunstock would get over a foot in 3 hours.

[TalcottWx]

I'm just going to be rooting for a positive bust. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

I'm just going to be rooting for a positive bust. 

I fear for your well being

[RDRY]

27 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I know my elevation isn’t great but I am 12 miles from the Vermont border and this is my forecast from BOX. 

This really seems like an elevation-dependent system.

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I fear for your well being

Edibles and IPas, edibles and IPas 

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, RDRY said:

This really seems like an elevation-dependent system.

A civilization avoider.

[backedgeapproaching]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s pretty close with 4” at DDH right near the NY/VT border, with the full hole a few miles west of there. There’s actually sleet in that model for DDH on the downslope.

Little dot of nothing over Hoosick Falls NY,one of the sneakiest worst snow holes in the NE.

DDH is at least at 800ft even with the downsloping, so still maybe still get some before the winds turn back N/NW more favorably.

[Roger Smith]

I'm reading this as a slow transition event that eventually changes over to snow just about everywhere, without the huge gradients and snow in the 4-8 inch range for most, after some rain and sleet for some. It looks like a coastal snowfall event near the end of the precip but that could be melting on contact snow south of BOS. But I only have success with the likes of Nemo and Blizzard of 1888. 

[J Paul Gordon]

Was surprised that anyone south of Rt 2 and East of the Berkshires ever seriously thought this would pan out to more than an inch (if we are lucky to get that much). Be nice to get a surprise, but I'm not holding my breath. It was nice to have a couple of days of fairly solid cover here. Is there more hope just before Christmas?

Anyhow, happy for folks to the north and west. Not going to whine about getting left out. It's even less productive to complain about the weather than it is to mope about politics.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, RDRY said:

This really seems like an elevation-dependent system.

BOX has my area at 1000’ asl in northern Worcester county as only getting 1-2”.  
Elevation is important but further west and north helps as well

[TalcottWx]

I'm 25-50 mile move from heavy wet man snow and no power for a week. Come on, pretty please? Will? Scott? Bueller? Obi won kenobi, you're my only hope. Or something like that. Yolo? I think some weenie wife's will be han Salo after some jumpers attempt to spread their wings off the tobin. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

I'm just going to be rooting for a positive bust. 

That’s the spirit! 
If you get confused listen to the music play.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That’s the spirit! 
If you get confused listen to the music play.

Just gotta poke around sometimes man

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOX has my area at 1000’ asl in northern Worcester county as only getting 1-2”.  
Elevation is important but further west and north helps as well

For here

 

Thursday Night

Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 1am. Low around 33. East wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday

Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 11am. Patchy fog. High near 37. East wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Friday Night

Rain, possibly mixed with snow and freezing rain before 3am, then a chance of snow and freezing rain between 3am and 4am, then snow after 4am. Patchy fog. Low around 30. Northeast wind 9 to 14 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Saturday

Snow likely, mainly before 9am. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. West wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

[CT Rain]

27 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

OK, put me in the padded room. So close. Yet so far. I would be disappointed. Can't lie. Especially with the track. Would usually probably do better on this most times around. Could be a big big disappointment here compared to the relative excitement I had getting the WSW notification on my phone. 

I wouldn't expect much where you are. Not a great location for an event like this. A 5 minute drive to North Canton will get you in the goods though!