HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 7:56 PM, ORH_wxman said: I am shocked they don’t have a watch for N ORH county. You only need 50% confidence in 6” for one. Expand Yeah. They have not really been moving this along Maybe 4PM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:02 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah. They have not really been moving this along Maybe 4PM? Expand They already issued their watches this afternoon....unless maybe they add N ORH late? I'm extremely surprised they didn't have them in the first time around though. I mean, it's not a lock in N ORH county, but I'd have to say its def 50%+ for 6" for a lot of that part of the county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:03 PM, ORH_wxman said: They already issued their watches this afternoon....unless maybe they add N ORH late? I'm extremely surprised they didn't have them in the first time around though. I mean, it's not a lock in N ORH county, but I'd have to say its def 50%+ for 6" for a lot of that part of the county. Expand This is their snow map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTBFFH1905 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 7:51 PM, Connecticut Appleman said: Bring it on - I could use a little pick me up! I do need to get diesel for the tractor - really long driveway about a 0.25 mille lone. Cabbed tractor with a 5 foot snowblower for the win! Expand Cabbed tractor ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:05 PM, CT Rain said: This is their snow map. Expand Lol....how did they get a watch in HFD county out of that map? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 BOX and GYX clearly do not agree either....that gradient in N ORH county looks ridiuclous....never seen Rindge get 12"+ while those other towns just south get almost skunked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:02 PM, CT Rain said: First cut pending the 18z NAM Expand Ryan.. I'm west of Hartford about 12 miles. Will we see this small accumulation at the end when it flips to snow.. or the beginning ( or a little of both ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 What a bump up, Ha Ha. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 LOL....BOX and GYX better coordinate again overnight tonight. The discontinuity in the maps is really obvious....even for a non-Met/non-weenie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:02 PM, CT Rain said: First cut pending the 18z NAM Expand No love for the Stafford/Union/Woodstock hills, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:12 PM, ORH_wxman said: LOL....BOX and GYX better coordinate again overnight tonight. The discontinuity in the maps is really obvious....even for a non-Met/non-weenie. Expand Legro and Ekster hitting the eggnog at the WFO? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:09 PM, dryslot said: What a bump up, Ha Ha Expand Legro firing up his blower while I scramble to measure between rain/snow/rain changeovers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:09 PM, dryslot said: What a bump up, Ha Ha. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 I just don’t understand these maps based on colder guidance across board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:07 PM, ORH_wxman said: Lol....how did they get a watch in HFD county out of that map? Expand Clearly they are worried about the town of Hartland and all 5 people that live there possibly reaching 6 inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 18z NAM looks even colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:17 PM, snowman21 said: Clearly they are worried about the town of Hartland and all 5 people that live there possibly reaching 6 inches. Expand Right....by that token, they weren't worried about that area of 8"+ intruding into Ashburnham on their map? Just weird.... Anyways, 18z NAM coming in colder again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 For a more easterly track from here I think you want to see that SE appendage on the SLP or 925 low map from 9-12z Friday am into mid afternoon so this can move more ENE off NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:18 PM, ORH_wxman said: Right....by that token, they weren't worried about that area of 8"+ intruding into Ashburnham on their map? Just weird.... Anyways, 18z NAM coming in colder again Expand Yeah the map has warning criteria snow for one town. They never normally issue warnings for the whole county when that happens so idk what that's all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:18 PM, ORH_wxman said: Right....by that token, they weren't worried about that area of 8"+ intruding into Ashburnham on their map? Just weird.... Anyways, 18z NAM coming in colder again Expand At what levels are you looking colder 925 is milder at 15z for Central eastern mass by a shade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:13 PM, Modfan2 said: No love for the Stafford/Union/Woodstock hills, Expand I'm struggling there. I wasn't even being a jerk to Kevin... just seems like longitude may hurt by 1 or 2F compared to Litchfield Co. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:05 PM, CT Rain said: This is their snow map. Expand Can always adjust lower... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 NAM starts off colder then warms by hour 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:19 PM, CT Rain said: Yeah the map has warning criteria snow for one town. They never normally issue warnings for the whole county when that happens so idk what that's all about. Expand It's just a watch, so my guess is they see part of the county already in range and any slight shift of that eastward would qualify the entire county when it comes time to pull the trigger on a warning. If it doesn't then they just convert to an advisory. Seems like giving themselves wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:20 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: At what levels are you looking colder 925 is milder at 15z for Central eastern mass by a shade Expand It was colder early on....but its starting to be warmer in the more recent frames because the dynamics are definitely weaker this run.....but we'll how it looks in another few frames...it may go to town here overnight friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 4:22 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: For S NH I imagine the hills in Holsett to Goffstown even at 500’ down to Mont Vernon are lookin very pasty if this look keeps up . That added latitude N of Ash will help as well as the extra few hundred feet Expand How about my 425’ versus your 200’? On 12/14/2022 at 8:09 PM, dryslot said: What a bump up, Ha Ha. Expand I got the 0-1” i asked for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:23 PM, ORH_wxman said: It was colder early on....but its starting to be warmer in the more recent frames because the dynamics are definitely weaker this run.....but we'll how it looks in another few frames...it may go to town here overnight friday night. Expand I know it’s unlikely, but what are the odds that the dynamics become strong enough to flip eastern areas to heavy snow early enough that we see eastern extension with the 6+ line to a BOS-PVD line? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:23 PM, ORH_wxman said: It was colder early on....but its starting to be warmer in the more recent frames because the dynamics are definitely weaker this run.....but we'll how it looks in another few frames...it may go to town here overnight friday night. Expand still mostly snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTBFFH1905 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:22 PM, snowman21 said: It's just a watch, so my guess is they see part of the county already in range and any slight shift of that eastward would qualify the entire county when it comes time to pull the trigger on a warning. If it doesn't then they just convert to an advisory. Seems like giving themselves wiggle room. Expand Must be an agreement the news stations have with the supermarkets and package stores to induce panic buying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 On 12/14/2022 at 8:26 PM, George001 said: I know it’s unlikely, but what are the odds that the dynamics become strong enough to flip eastern areas to heavy snow early enough that we see eastern extension with the 6+ line to a BOS-PVD line? Expand Prob about 1 in 10....it would happen somewhere from late evening to overnight friday night if it happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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