Preliminarily ... a medium impact partial Miller B, Friday

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

I have 4 kids that have been either screaming at each other or me today, it is just one of those days. Just need that GFS that has been steadfast for 48 hours to actually be right this time. Lol...please?!?!

There a few bridges in town you can take a dive from. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t see it that way though. Catching east zones on the way out doesn’t equate to taking WOR snows away. 

Agreed…longitude seems better in this one than most…another tic and it’s totally game on for a lot of folks inland. 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So you’re saying no chance it scores a coup?

From what? This? Its SLP placement, Strength and track was not very good.

 

[NW_of_GYX]

seems to be some good model consensus for 1.25-.5" QPF for my area enough cold in place. Even with less than 10:1 I'm thinking 8" is a lock and I like where I am. This area just at the southern end of the foothills can do really well in coastal setups.

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

hoping being out of the valley pays off for me now

It will, bigtime

[subdude]

Great I have to be at umass Amherst on Sat morning at 9:30am for a graduation. Please cancel....

[Connecticut Appleman]

Liking the general trends here.  I'm heading into my 5th winter here and I'm at 1,000 feet which has not been much of factor since moving here.  I came from Ellington to New Hartford and hopefully the elevation will pay off this time. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, NW_of_GYX said:

seems to be some good model consensus for 1.25-.5" QPF for my area enough cold in place. Even with less than 10:1 I'm thinking 8" is a lock and I like where I am. This area just at the southern end of the foothills can do really well in coastal setups.

With an east fetch you will.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

From what? This? Its SLP placement, Strength and track was not very good.

 

While every other model had it cutting into the Hudson it was the first to catch onto the eastern and colder shift. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I would think lava rock should have his pants around his ankles at 700-750’

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

While every other model had it cutting into the Hudson it was the first to catch onto the eastern and colder shift. 

I didn't see any go up the hudson, Over LI-KEV and over PWM i saw, Somebody mentioned some where on here that box had tossed it in their AFD, No?

[tunafish]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I would think lava rock should have his pants around his ankles at 700-750’

we could have total consensus and a forecast from GYX for a 20 burger and he'd still 'meh' it through the first 6 hours of the event.

[NW_of_GYX]

3 minutes ago, tunafish said:

we could have total consensus and a forecast from GYX for a 20 burger and he'd still 'meh' it through the first 6 hours of the event.

His area has had it rough for years so he’s jaded. Amazing the difference 10 miles of latitude has made in the lake region over the past 7-8 years. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I didn't see any go up the hudson, Over LI-KEV and over PWM i saw, Somebody mentioned some where on here that box had tossed it in their AFD, No?

Ya euro gfs candian were over Hudson on Sunday Monday.  Then gfs gradually started shifting others have caught on about 6 runs later. 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I didn't see any go up the hudson, Over LI-KEV and over PWM i saw, Somebody mentioned some where on here that box had tossed it in their AFD, No?

From this mornings AFD

All other guidance sources
are farther north, so we will disregard the GFS and its ensembles
for this portion of the forecast.

[dryslot]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

From this mornings AFD

All other guidance sources
are farther north, so we will disregard the GFS and its ensembles
for this portion of the forecast.

I thought is was you that mentioned but wasn't sure so i guess i still have my faculties.

[tunafish]

2 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

His area has had it rough for years so he’s jaded. Amazing the difference 10 miles of latitude has made in the lake region over the past 7-8 years. 

It's been BN for everyone up here, but by comparison I'm 10/30/20" +/- BN the past 3 years, respectively.  I'm obviously a different climo than you guys, but he'd be jaded and complain with those amount AN.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

From this mornings AFD

All other guidance sources
are farther north, so we will disregard the GFS and its ensembles
for this portion of the forecast.

Here’s more 

MA. GFS
and its ensembles continue to display their cold bias, with frontal
boundary displaced farther south, which results in frontal wave
tracking offshore, south of New England.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS still might be too far south but there’s no doubt other guidance has trended hard towards it. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX pnc and Wunderground app still has my area almost 100% rain.

I assume 4PM there will be some changes

[NW_of_GYX]

17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

With an east fetch you will.

we cash on these while places to our north miss out on the juice and south has ptype issues. Not spiking the football but looks to be an above average storm incoming 

[Modfan2]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOX pnc and Wunderground app still has my area almost 100% rain.

I assume 4PM there will be some changes

Yeah 4pm tomorrow while you’re pounding  silver dollars! lol

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOX pnc and Wunderground app still has my area almost 100% rain.

I assume 4PM there will be some changes

You would think but probably not major changes since they have the early morning AFD to paint a clearer picture.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro looking a bit SE through 36h.

[NW_of_GYX]

9 minutes ago, tunafish said:

It's been BN for everyone up here, but by comparison I'm 10/30/20" +/- BN the past 3 years, respectively.  I'm obviously a different climo than you guys, but he'd be jaded and complain with those amount AN.

If he can ride local he’ll be happy. Long range hopes and glimmers he might be before the new year. 

[SJonesWX]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOX pnc and Wunderground app still has my area almost 100% rain.

I assume 4PM there will be some changes

i have always noticed wunderground to be at least 1 model cycle behind. whatever model it uses, it is seemingly behind the 8-ball 

[Modfan2]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro looking a bit SE through 36h.

Tic Tic Tic…..Not gonna help me much but Kevin up to Union/Woodstock might be more now than rain

[TheMainer]

4 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

we cash on these while places to our north miss out on the juice and south has ptype issues. Not spiking the football but looks to be an above average storm incoming 

I like living on the border of GYX and CAR so I just click back and forth over the county line to see who is giving us more snow, usually the one that gives us less snow wins though, haha.

 

Hoping for 6 inches + of paste to set a base, then another 6 inches on top of that next week and we'd be grooming by Christmas day for the first time since 2019. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

i have always noticed wunderground to be at least 1 model cycle behind. whatever model it uses, it is seemingly behind the 8-ball 

I used to think they just used a massaged GFS, but I think they have cobbled together their own frankenmodel

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Amwx mets ftw?