Preliminarily ... a medium impact partial Miller B, Friday

[mreaves]

  On 12/14/2022 at 4:56 PM, dryslot said:

Looks like all the models are on board now for some getting blitzed with paste.

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You making a map for HCS?

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/14/2022 at 5:00 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Uncle Ukie’s 6” weenie line aiming straight across Merrimack valley into Rays Fanny 

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Yea, daddy....no lube, swingin' for the fences. Hit it for me one time

[masonwoods]

It would be funny if the only thing Tip got wrong was calling it a "Medium Impact" event.

[CoastalWx]

Ukie is interesting. Just saw. 

GEFS don't have that elongated sling back look. You want to see this consolidate and intensify near and off ACK.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/14/2022 at 4:58 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Even here?

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Yeah it hammered most of E MA with big CCB overnight. Remains to be seen if that will materialize, but we follow. Ukie verbatim was pretty warm, but it's always warm in the low levels and it's been cooling as we get closer. The track is more important to me on that model and the track looks lot more like the GFS.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/14/2022 at 4:57 PM, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS ticked SE again too....getting kind of close to use ensemble clusters, but with some uncertainty still remaining, I find it interesting. Every model is moving toward the GFS right now

 

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After BOX completely tossed it this morning 

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/14/2022 at 5:00 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, daddy....no lube, swingin' for the fences. Hit it for me one time

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Hopefully you get some snow and Christmas tree, gifts, house, and marriage are all saved. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

If you bake in UK’s warm bias in the ML’s, the solution is even better.

[ROOSTA]

Appears there is still hope for the Coastal Plain. 
Trends look promising.
I only have a frontal passage with what their calling a temperature "plunge" 80 to 65F.
A slight chance of severe mid-day tomorrow.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/14/2022 at 5:01 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If you bake in UK’s warm bias in the ML’s, the solution is even better.

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Ukie would be large hit for most of interior and elevated CT

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/14/2022 at 5:01 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If you bake in UK’s warm bias in the ML’s, the solution is even better.

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The track is almost perfect....850 stays below freezing for everyone N of MA/RI border now on the Ukie, but it's still trying to furnace 925 (but it cooled a decent amount there too versus prior runs)

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 12/14/2022 at 5:01 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it hammered most of E MA with big CCB overnight. Remains to be seen if that will materialize, but we follow. Ukie verbatim was pretty warm, but it's always warm in the low levels and it's been cooling as we get closer. The track is more important to me on that model and the track looks lot more like the GFS.

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You mean Friday late nite Into Saturday noonish right 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 12/14/2022 at 5:01 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it hammered most of E MA with big CCB overnight. Remains to be seen if that will materialize, but we follow. Ukie verbatim was pretty warm, but it's always warm in the low levels and it's been cooling as we get closer. The track is more important to me on that model and the track looks lot more like the GFS.

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God, it would be nice to get some nice wraparound after the rain. I honestly can’t count many times that’s worked out here though.

[ineedsnow]

  On 12/14/2022 at 5:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The track is almost perfect....850 stays below freezing for everyone N of MA/RI border now on the Ukie, but it's still trying to furnace 925 (but it cooled a decent amount there too versus prior runs)

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depending on how the Euro looks maybe they issue watches this afternoon

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/14/2022 at 5:04 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Did you mean Saturday morning to early pm?

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06z to 12z looked the most intense. It does linger into Sat PM though on that run....

[Spaizzo]

Is CT out of the snow game? Talking upper New Haven County. Trying to see if we need to rearrange a Christmas party


.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/14/2022 at 5:04 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

God, it would be nice to get some nice wraparound after the rain. I honestly can’t count many times that’s worked out here though.

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There are rules for "Wrap around" working out....the biggest rule is keeping the ML centers to your south....very hard to do good wrap around when you are ripping 850mb out of the NW or even NNW which tends to dry out the atmosphere. You want it still coming out the NE to give good moisture advection. The runs that give good CCB wrap around are doing that....GFS/Ukie....even RGEM though RGEM was a little more precarious. PRob better up by Ray's hood on RGEM wraparound.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/14/2022 at 5:06 PM, Spaizzo said:

Is CT out of the snow game? Talking upper New Haven County. Trying to see if we need to rearrange a Christmas party


.

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You’re still in the game there. Super close, enough to watch closely.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/14/2022 at 5:08 PM, ORH_wxman said:

There are rules for "Wrap around" working out....the biggest rule is keeping the ML centers to your south....very hard to do good wrap around when you are ripping 850mb out of the NW or even NNW which tends to dry out the atmosphere. You want it still coming out the NE to give good moisture advection. The runs that give good CCB wrap around are doing that....GFS/Ukie....even RGEM though RGEM was a little more precarious. PRob better up by Ray's hood on RGEM wraparound.

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Here's an example on GFS....this is 06z Saturday (late Fri night)....look where the 850 low is here at this point...its still down by Islands so you are getting great easterly inflow

 

[dryslot]

  On 12/14/2022 at 5:00 PM, mreaves said:

You making a map for HCS?

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Are they asking? lol, I'll do one this afternoon to feed the hardcore sledders.............

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 12/14/2022 at 5:06 PM, Spaizzo said:

Is CT out of the snow game? Talking upper New Haven County. Trying to see if we need to rearrange a Christmas party


.

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Elevation will be a necessity in Derby to grab a few inches.  Theres some 300-400' elevation there on the "hilltop", however down along the river valley has no shot in my opinion. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

As is, pretty good for wct verbatim clown. More favorable ticks until go time and more get involved. Caveat being the gfs winning the trophy of course. 

 

 

[dryslot]

  On 12/14/2022 at 5:14 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

As is, pretty good for wct verbatim clown. More favorable ticks until go time and more get involved. Caveat being the gfs winning the trophy of course. 

 

 

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I see things still didn't improve with the GFS and coastal systems over the past few days.

[Hazey]

This will be a big coup for the GFS. Not very often a model stands alone and beats out the other big ones. Interesting.

[Spanks45]

  On 12/14/2022 at 4:46 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Wow...Ukie went insane for eastern areas overnight Saturday....joining the GFS.

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That sounds about right....Rains here, then bombs out and snows EOR, now I am starting to sound like Ray. Biggest snow I have seen here since 2015 was 17 inches

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Good timing from our daycare lol:

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/14/2022 at 5:20 PM, Spanks45 said:

That sounds about right....Rains here, then bombs out and snows EOR, now I am starting to sound like Ray. Biggest snow I have seen here since 2015 was 17 inches

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I don’t see it that way though. Catching east zones on the way out doesn’t equate to taking WOR snows away. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/14/2022 at 5:18 PM, dryslot said:

I see things still didn't improve with the GFS and coastal systems over the past few days.

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So you’re saying no chance it scores a coup?

[Spanks45]

  On 12/14/2022 at 5:23 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t see it that way though. Catching east zones on the way out doesn’t equate to taking WOR snows away. 

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I have 4 kids that have been either screaming at each other or me today, it is just one of those days. Just need that GFS that has been steadfast for 48 hours to actually be right this time. Lol...please?!?!

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/14/2022 at 5:24 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So you’re saying no chance it scores a coup?

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Ya I couldn’t understand Jeff’s point there?