dendrite Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Worst case scenario...1" QPF of glop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Most of SNE is under an inch of qpf through 84h....that isn't really going to do much outside of like the highest terrain well in the interior. We need that H5 protrusion to start curling back to the NW a bit earlier for the good dynamics like the NAM did. Here's what I was talking about....look at the NAM whil it is still south of New England: Here is the Euro at the same time...note the lack of "curl" in the H5 heights south of NE. It's not really doing it until it's almost overhead which keeps us without good dynamics. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 We just need the nam to lead the way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Euro is slow to get the secondary going.....sucks for WOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: We just need the nam to lead the way If Brock Purdy can rise to the top of the depth chart and win, why can’t the NAM? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 System trending into a weak POS. 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro is slow to get the secondary going.....sucks for WOR. Lol..now we all in the same boat if the NAM is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: If Brock Purdy can rise to the top of the depth chart and win, why can’t the NAM? because the nam isn't sitting behind some injury prone model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro is slow to get the secondary going.....sucks for WOR. I mean if 8-12 at 1-2k sucks ,I’ll take it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Certainly a shift SE from 00z and even 6z. I guess question is strength as at least the Messenger ticks have started . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 This has the makings of a pretty decent ice storm where CAD wins out...maybe not necessarily within our region but that CAD signal is quite intense and strong. Some of those valley areas aren't going to see that disturbed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Certainly a shift SE from 00z and even 6z. I guess question is strength as at least the Messenger ticks have started . That’s a huge shift in one run SE. But who the hell knows anymore? It’s still only Tuesday…Friday is an eternity away it seems in regards to this thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Certainly a shift SE from 00z and even 6z. I guess question is strength as at least the Messenger ticks have started . Those are two different models so I feel like you can't really say they shifted. Compare apples to apples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 NAM tickled NW....it is still dumping good snow though over interior elevations. The antecedent airmass just is a lot better on the NAM than some other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Southern VT ski resorts saying yes please to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3k is also colder than other guidance...only goes to 60h, but that is getting close to the onset of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM tickled NW....it is still dumping good snow though over interior elevations. The antecedent airmass just is a lot better on the NAM than some other guidance. Do you think it(the NAM) has the better idea on the airmass Will? I mean that high to the north is in a good spot, gonna be funneling in the cold Thursday night…I mean it makes sense..no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Would be nice if the Nam is getting the thermals right, But i can't trust it yet, Its still at the end of its range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Do you think it(the NAM) has the better idea on the airmass Will? I mean that high to the north is in a good spot, gonna be funneling in the cold Thursday night…I mean it makes sense..no? I've expected the antecedent airmass to show up colder on guidance as we get closer....so yeah, I think the NAM would make some sense on that aspect. But the caveat is assuming no more NW ticks....if we're tracking the 925 low over interior SNE like the Euro did, that's not gonna cut it. We need it to track over or SE of LI to the Cape roughly to keep interior SNE mostly snow. But even on a Euro track, I'd still expect it to try and tick colder on the front end as we get closer. We just would flip to rain on the Euro even in a colder antecedent airmass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 3k is also colder than other guidance...only goes to 60h, but that is getting close to the onset of precip. 3k is way colder here than regular 18z Nam . Does that make any sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Euro looks decent. Hope it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I think if your WOR and not in the Berks or Norfolk county you want to route for a robust front end thump like nam is showing . Starts it early as well just after midnite WOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: 3k is way colder here than regular 18z Nam . Does that make any sense? We'll see if it's full of crap...but theoretically the higher res models should be able to handle the BL better than the others. The warmth is from ground-up in this one....it's plenty cold at like 850-900 for a chunk of the time when heavy precip is falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: 3k is way colder here than regular 18z Nam . Does that make any sense? Where are you located , I see areas in NW CT , HFD , Berks and S NH the same temp as the precip starts hours 54-60 over W SNE as 12k nam nam gives a good thump of mashed taters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Where are you located , I see areas in NW CT , HFD , Berks and S NH the same temp as the precip starts hours 54-60 over W SNE as 12k nam nam gives a good thump of mashed taters Nw jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 43 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Where are you located , I see areas in NW CT , HFD , Berks and S NH the same temp as the precip starts hours 54-60 over W SNE as 12k nam nam gives a good thump of mashed taters 18Z GFS running. Lets see what that shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, Weather Mike said: 18Z GFS running. Lets see what that shows. Shows less precip in central -nne and better for WOR in CT and that I need to change my phone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Shows less precip in central -nne and better for WOR in CT and that I need to change my phone LOL Western CT is not seeing a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Man, either GFS is gonna score a great coup or get embarrassed. This is less than 3 days out now and it’s way SE of other guidance. It often gags on coastals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Man, either GFS is gonna score a great coup or get embarrassed. This is less than 3 days out now and it’s way SE of other guidance. It often gags on coastals. Dilemma ... It's both true. The bold, and that fact that it has 300 years of climate backed inference to suggest a cyclone should not move headlong into a -NAO blocking with being shunted E. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 NAM/ GFS/ GGEM vs Euro which has been slipping SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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