40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: In thy knicker days, maybe this would be snow inside 495. We've also pulled many events out of our arses too. Eventually luck runs out. Yea, it would suck if my luck ran out. Wouldn't want that 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, it would suck if my luck ran out. Wouldn't want that Well my comment was meant for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well my comment was meant for him. He is due for hell to pay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He is due for hell to pay. We both are, but at least I know and understand it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We both are, but at least I know and understand it's coming. 4 straight below average seasons (or near average on the last) so the clock has already started on the regression, for a lot of us. At this point, we just hope for a biggie mixed in with the sea of meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Ukie def came SE some....still torching the low levels (what else is new for Ukie), but I like those ML tracks much better than 00z....850 going over the canal region now instead of over ORH at 00z. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 So are we seeing a trend here, with the 12z models moving SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Colonel Badger said: So are we seeing a trend here, with the 12z models moving SE? I think that is certainly clear… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie def came SE some....still torching the low levels (what else is new for Ukie), but I like those ML tracks much better than 00z....850 going over the canal region now instead of over ORH at 00z. Will why is 925 like 40 miles North at 18z Friday on 12z run when that run has a much better mid level track shown . It’s primarily that 16z to 21z period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I guess where the secondary develops and where cyclogeneis gets going will play more of a significant roll in this, but that high to the northeast is so large and strong...its just hard to see warmer air bleeding too far into the interior. Again, an earlier developing secondary and strengthening one establishing the southerly flow ahead of it probably would override but I even think BDL is going to get a crushing from this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: 4 straight below average seasons (or near average on the last) so the clock has already started on the regression, for a lot of us. At this point, we just hope for a biggie mixed in with the sea of meh The Cape has had it rougher too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 GEFS moved SE quite a bit too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Will why is 925 like 40 miles North at 18z Friday on 12z run when that run has a much better mid level track shown I have no idea....Ukie always just absolutely furnaces the low levels, so I don't really try and parse it outside of the synoptic tracks. Might have to do with how strong the lift is on the model at any given time, but usually I just completely toss the Ukie thermals and try and look at the track of systems on there if ptype issues are an issue with the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRVexpat Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Any threat of a NW based deform band in this one? If not, what are the typical ingredients to make this happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS moved SE quite a bit too. I like seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, MRVexpat said: Any threat of a NW based deform band in this one? If not, what are the typical ingredients to make this happen? Deepening and closed mid level lows at 500 or at least 700 height . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 52 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Well, here is hoping the GFS is correct....Almost all snow here, maybe 5-10"? I would assume during light precip we would flip to some drizzle or light rain....hoping for a bit more in dynamics and we could easily see more. Hopefully not a 33-35 degree rain event. That looks like a weak 2-5” clown map that would result in mostly slop unless we can crank the dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS moved SE quite a bit too. My worry with that is they're just weaker which isn't really great either. Not sure the op GFS would get it done with a weaker and more strung out system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That looks like a weak 2-5” clown map that would result in mostly slop unless we can crank the dynamics. Sloppy seconds to those with bigger totals Nw of you is usually not great but sometimes it depends how big of a weenie you...are but ya that’s why it’s a Berks /NW CT storm if everything SE is just weaker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: My worry with that is they're just weaker which isn't really great either. Not sure the op GFS would get it done with a weaker and more strung out system. I agree. The further SE solutions are weaker it seems. I guess it may be better for those in the ORH-TOL area or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/12/major-long-duration-winter-storm-likely.html Final on Thursday- 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I think the SE trends matter for this area even if weaker storm.. Not for big snow amounts, just longer duration snow on front and backside between any mix / rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: I agree. The further SE solutions are weaker it seems. I guess it may be better for those in the ORH-TOL area or so. Will be an interesting event for sure. Something a bit more dynamic with that op GFS track would be fun. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I think the SE trends matter for this area even if weaker storm.. Not for big snow amounts, just longer duration snow on front and backside between any mix / rain Yea. It matters for a more festive event with snow falling, or mixing in and out, instead of pounding 34F rains. It may not accumulate to a whole lot here but…it could be worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Will be an interesting event for sure. Something a bit more dynamic with that op GFS track would be fun. Still have 3 days to go…maybe things trend a bit more dynamic kind of like the NAM had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: Still have 3 days to go…maybe things trend a bit more dynamic kind of like the NAM had. Yeah it can't go too crazy given the upper level setup. Not like we're getting a crazy bomb that's closing off at 500mb. It's sort of a SWFE with some redevelopment off the coast. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Sloppy seconds to those with bigger totals Nw of you is usually not great but sometimes it depends how big of a weenie you...are but ya that’s why it’s a Berks /NW CT storm if everything SE is just weaker Huge weenie here but I prefer to bypass sloppy seconds…unless there are no other alternatives. Close thy eyes and enjoy it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRVexpat Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Deepening and closed mid level lows at 500 or at least 700 height . Thnx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. It matters for a more festive event with snow falling, or mixing in and out, instead of pounding 34F rains. It may not accumulate to a whole lot here but…it could be worse. These types of storms love that area of W CT. Far removed from marine taint.. enough elevation to accumulate.. My gut says you do fairly well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Yeah it can't go too crazy given the upper level setup. Not like we're getting a crazy bomb that's closing off at 500mb. It's sort of a SWFE with some redevelopment off the coast. At this point, I'm hoping that next week has a bit more potential to be snow than this mixed to rain event. Looks like there's a couple of opportunities mid next week Christmas itself. Although, hoping not Christmas Eve. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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