Weather Mike Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 3:51 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Meanwhile Alta up to 186" on the season. Expand Thats insane. Wonder which ski resort wins for the highest totals for this storm? I may chase this and ski Mount Snow or Sugarloaf. Just have not made my mind up yet until maybe tonights run or tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 From BOX wrt this event: Thursday night/Friday/Fri night... Potent upper low over the western Great Lakes ejects short wave energy toward SNE this period. Modest jet dynamics and moisture plume accompany this feature. However, given high latitude block, some duration to the precip, from Thu night into possibly early Sat morning. Ensembles (ECENS & GEFS) both supporting QPF ranging from 0.75 to 1.5 inches, with low probs of 2+ inches in spots. As for ptype, temp anomalies from the ensembles indicate airmass on the front end is only seasonably cold. Therefore, it will be difficult to maintain cold air, unless low level circulation from secondary frontal wave tracks offshore. There remains a large spread in the guidance regarding the track of this secondary wave, however, more members are farther west, tracking along the coast or across SNE. The GFS and its ensembles are on the east side of the envelope, hence a colder/snowier solution. Given the antecedent airmass is not anomalously cold combined with upper low over the western Great Lakes, the low level circulation likely won`t track offshore, and cold air should erode quickly. The exception will be across the high terrain of western MA, where cold air will linger longer, supporting the risk for several inches of snow. The ECENS has high probs for 3+ of snow here, GEFS is lower. Accumulating snow also possible for northern Worcester county, albeit lower probs than the Berkshires. Elsewhere, odds favor a chilly, windswept rain, especially for coastal plain, where a low level easterly jet of 40-50 kt quickly erodes the cold air. This strong low level jet may also translate to wind gusts up to 35-45 mph, so wind advisories may be need for the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 3:53 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: How much blood of Christ this morning? Expand Is there something wrong with him? Concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 GFS coming in a bit colder than 06z as well...I'd like to see it a bit more dynamic like the NAM though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Pretty weak sauce, That's allowing the slp to slip south, Right now, Its on the southern envelope of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 GFS is so far SE lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 That track would bury SNE 96/100 times. Oh well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 GFS says what storm up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Gfs says sorry NNE No snows for you Berks , ORH county and NE Merrimack valley do better on that run . CNE drier and lower totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 4:06 PM, CoastalWx said: That track would bury SNE 96/100 times. Oh well. Expand This sucks We would all be buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Haven't had much time to really look thoroughly in-depth, but I am a bit excited for this potential. Obviously coastal pees the excitement isn't there, but I don't think we're done seeing the coldest solution yet. This thing is going to be extremely dynamic as we have the supply of cold air...just have to lock that in. Going to be a big time gradient setting up though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 GFS has more potent energy on SE side of that secondary sorta dragging it out to sea East . Not much of any northern component after it gets to Long Island longitude 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 4:08 PM, weatherwiz said: Haven't had much time to really look thoroughly in-depth, but I am a bit excited for this potential. Obviously coastal pees the excitement isn't there, but I don't think we're done seeing the coldest solution yet. This thing is going to be extremely dynamic as we have the supply of cold air...just have to lock that in. Going to be a big time gradient setting up though Expand Plenty of cold air ...ehhh maybe just enough cold air outside Norfolk and Berkshire county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 2:59 PM, CoastalWx said: Might help being on the western side? I feel like any longitude helps. Hopefully you guys can grab some. Expand I could see this as one of those storms where BDL has little, but a few miles west is hammered (or something more generous). That line that sets up in these systems just west of West Springfield down west of West Hartford etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Its on an island in the caribbean sipping Mai Tai's with the pope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 4:10 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Plenty of cold air ...ehhh maybe just enough cold air outside Norfolk and Berkshire county Expand I think it's still a bit too far out to really discount anything. There are so many factors here that will be a determinant. One of them is how the baroclinic zone evolves there in the southeast which will be tied into how progressive the cold front is moving across the south. Move that a bit faster and the baroclinic zone gets shunted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 GGEM tickling SE as well....still solidly NW of GFS though. But getting closer to a crusher for interior hills. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 3:21 PM, DavisStraight said: Why didn't you go with an interlock kit? Expand We've installed a TON of the Interlockits for our customers with portables. Allows nice flexibility 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Well, here is hoping the GFS is correct....Almost all snow here, maybe 5-10"? I would assume during light precip we would flip to some drizzle or light rain....hoping for a bit more in dynamics and we could easily see more. Hopefully not a 33-35 degree rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 For the sanity of many a whiff could be the best medicine. Blasphemy! Just accept if you don't have a combo of LAT and elevation this isn't the storm. NEXT 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 4:06 PM, CoastalWx said: That track would bury SNE 96/100 times. Oh well. Expand I feel like we’ve had a lot of rainers that have been decent tracks in the last 5 or so years. I can’t remember the year, but we had a benchmark Rainer here not too long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 4:14 PM, ORH_wxman said: GGEM tickling SE as well....still solidly NW of GFS though. But getting closer to a crusher for interior hills. Expand hoping for mostly snow here but thinking 50/50 for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 4:17 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I feel like we’ve had a lot of rainers that have been decent tracks in the last 5 or so years. I can’t remember the year, but we had a benchmark Rainer here not too long ago. Expand In thy knicker days, maybe this would be snow inside 495. We've also pulled many events out of our arses too. Eventually luck runs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 4:18 PM, ineedsnow said: hoping for mostly snow here but thinking 50/50 for now Expand You're in a good spot with elevation. I'll take the over on Templeton being more than 50/50 snow assuming we don't see a trend back NW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 4:15 PM, Spanks45 said: Well, here is hoping the GFS is correct....Almost all snow here, maybe 5-10"? I would assume during light precip we would flip to some drizzle or light rain....hoping for a bit more in dynamics and we could easily see more. Hopefully not a 33-35 degree rain event. Expand NAM and now GFS…we trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 4:14 PM, ORH_wxman said: GGEM tickling SE as well....still solidly NW of GFS though. But getting closer to a crusher for interior hills. Expand NAM doing NAM things.. GFS doing GFS things.. GGEM windshield wipers sloshing and Euro doing Euro things. A simple forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Canadian barely moved to my eyes .also 12z got rid of the few inches 0z had on the tolland / union mastiff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 4:07 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Gfs says sorry NNE No snows for you Berks , ORH county and NE Merrimack valley do better on that run . CNE drier and lower totals Expand Remembering Dec 17 2020 when the early models had the heavy snow band in southern Conn. and R.I. and it wound up 200 miles north. ofc a different setup, since that had SN all the way to the coast with more cold air. But a similar track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 4:19 PM, ORH_wxman said: You're in a good spot with elevation. I'll take the over on Templeton being more than 50/50 snow assuming we don't see a trend back NW. Expand im just not use to being in a good spot.. still got valley brain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 4:25 PM, ineedsnow said: im just not use to being in a good spot.. still got valley brain Expand I laughed a bit when you said that. Enjoy a paster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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