Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Obviously we are all aware ... this has been out there for 10 days at this point. This is also a bit of a continuation over the thread now scrolled that began coverage as a risk assessment this week. It's stuck around and here we go. The question, what? There are 2 aspects that are in conflict, and I suspect that has manifested in these large scale synoptic fluctuations that have occurred, sometimes upon single run cycles, over the past week. Not just as it pertains to this storm, but the entirety of the circulation. 1 .. a well-coupled La Nina base state with the Pacific and how it influences the behavior of the PNA --> PNAP this autumn is notable. 2 .. Asynchronous to that basal flow tendency, we are seeing an obscene amount of blocking over all quadrants of the polar hemisphere. The tandem of those two disparate forcing pretty much puts us exactly where we've been with this system, uncertainty that ranges from a major to minor impacts, or what can be imagined in between. Yet, 'some' kind of any event has persisted through those modulations. In the end, this ... combined with a this ... tends to produce. That and the persistence for an event at all, lends confidence in an event - above normal. There's a huge amount of uncertain as to what form the storm will really take. My feeling is that a moderate commitment to Miller B will be forced E of a European guidance track. I am paying particular attention to that regression in the NAO you see after 4 days from now ( curved line annotated on that graph is kind of ugly...).. That's important. There is a precedence this recent two week of blocking for 'pulsing' in both the EPO and NAO domains. The behavior you see there has some trended merit, and there in is the tricky part. There is in fact Baffin Isle/regional -NAO pulsation, as this storm will be riding toward our latitudes. That does not teleconnect to storms going W of Logan. Can it happen? Yup. Is it likely? Less so... I'm thinking this is not a major event, but is the first one that offers a synoptic snow threat ... Preliminary for that would be briefly N-W of PHL... perhaps longer as it moves N, N-W up the I-95 corridor ... NW of HFD-ASH has the best shot for snow. Should this need to be adjusted E over this week, don't be surprised. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Obviously we are all aware ... this has been out there for 10 days at this point. This is also a bit of a continuation over the thread now scrolled that began coverage as a risk assessment this week. It's stuck around and here we go. The question, what? There are 2 aspects that are in conflict, and I suspect that has manifested in these large scale synoptic fluctuations that have occurred, sometimes upon single run cycles, over the past week. Not just as it pertains to this storm, but the entirety of the circulation. 1 .. a well-coupled La Nina base state with the Pacific and how it influences the behavior of the PNA --> PNAP this autumn is notable. 2 .. Asynchronous to that basal flow tendency, we are seeing an obscene amount of blocking over all quadrants of the polar hemisphere. The tandem of those two disparate forcing pretty much puts us exactly where we've been with this system, uncertainty that ranges from a major to minor impacts, or what can be imagined in between. Yet, 'some' kind of any event has persisted through those modulations. In the end, this ... combined with a this ... tends to produce. That and the persistence for an event at all, lends confidence in an event - above normal. There's a huge amount of uncertain as to what form the storm will really take. My feeling is that a moderate commitment to Miller B will be forced E of a European guidance track. I am paying particular attention to that regression in the NAO you see after 4 days from now ( curved line annotated on that graph is kind of ugly...).. That's important. There is a precedence this recent two week of blocking for 'pulsing' in both the EPO and NAO domains. The behavior you see there has some trended merit, and there in is the tricky part. There is in fact Baffin Isle/regional -NAO pulsation, as this storm will be riding toward our latitudes. That does not teleconnect to storms going W of Logan. Can it happen? Yup. Is it likely? Less so... I'm thinking this is not a major event, but is the first one that offers a synoptic snow threat ... Preliminary for that would be briefly N-W of PHL... perhaps longer as it moves N, N-W up the I-95 corridor ... NW of HFD-ASH has the best shot for snow. This is have to be adjusted E over this week, don't be surprised. One of the things interesting in GYX discussion today was the majority of ensemble members hinting at more than 1.5"qpf. So could this be a slow moving storm, but just not a windy bomb? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: One of the things interesting in GYX discussion today was the majority of ensemble members hinting at more than 1.5"qpf. So could this be a slow moving storm, but just not a windy bomb? That’s not a bad interpretation … no. I noticed the 18 z GFS backed of intensity a little - the low ends up more E. It’s probably related. It’s negatively tilted Its likely slowing as it attempts to move past. Those would tend produce by virtue of maximizing mechanics over duration … But we don’t want it to get so weak that it doesn’t matter. It all to comes down to what ejects out of the trough as it’s moving through the Midwest and starts smearing out under the block. I don’t believe the models are really going to have a very good handle on that until maybe tomorrow night. Seems like more could be delivered given the size and depth of that beast, though… which could conserve more of that momentum by winding it up in a stronger lead short wave injection for example. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Looking at the 18z Euro, From where it was at 18z@hr 90, It looked a couple tics east of the 12z run and a tic or two colder in the mid levels, Also, 18z EPS looks a tic or two east as well and colder too following the OP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Op and EPS were colder vs 12z. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Op and EPS were colder vs 12z. I would hope so given how awful it looked for many at 12z. Definitely want to see a discernible trend east/colder on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Windshield wipers in effect for now. Hopefully it can end on a swish to the east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Windshield wipers in effect for now. Hopefully it can end on a swish to the east Watch yo self. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 NAM is a pretty impressive paste bomb around here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, CT Rain said: NAM is a pretty impressive paste bomb around here Actually colder here in the Valley then on Mount Tolland! 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, CT Rain said: NAM is a pretty impressive paste bomb around here Tick tick… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, CT Rain said: NAM is a pretty impressive paste bomb around here It's been known too out shine the big boys every so often. Not holding my breath though ( although I believe it was the storm of 2013 where the NAM was the only What putting out big snow totals. In the end it was correct ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 NAM is a good front end thump here before pelting. Still need a lot of work for peeps E of ORH, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: It's been known too out shine the big boys every so often. Not holding my breath though ( although I believe it was the storm of 2013 where the NAM was the only What putting out big snow totals. In the end it was correct ) It did well in 2016…when all the other modeling had the mid Atlantic blizzard staying south, it was the first to show it getting snow up in here. It was right on that. It scores a coup every now and then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: It's been known too out shine the big boys every so often. Not holding my breath though ( although I believe it was the storm of 2013 where the NAM was the only What putting out big snow totals. In the end it was correct ) It also often leads the charge with mid-level warming so if it's holding back on that I'm interested. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: It also often leads the charge with mid-level warming so if it's holding back on that I'm interested. Yup…very good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Feel like the NAM gets credit for things because it is the first model available in every suite. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: It also often leads the charge with mid-level warming so if it's holding back on that I'm interested. True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Looked good for some WOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 And the nam was actually northwest of the previous run. NAM’s likely to be left if other guidance beyond 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Would love to see it on a first string model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Goes to town for snow in ENY/ALB area that just raked 6+ in this past event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 That’s quite a strong easterly fetch. Anyone within 35 miles of the east facing coastal areas in sne will likely have bl issues in the first part of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I’d be surprised if Will didn’t score a 6+”’paste bomb out of this one. I’m hoping for a decent dump at the cabin at Stratton 1,800 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 That's weak sauce on the 0z GFS, That's not going to work out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: That's weak sauce on the 0z GFS, That's not going to work out well. Colder Need a stronger coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s quite a strong easterly fetch. Anyone within 35 miles of the east facing coastal areas in sne will likely have bl issues in the first part of this storm. Lost cause for us. I checked out on this one yesterday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I’d take a chance with that run. Good event for NW CT verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lost cause for us. I checked out on this one yesterday. Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lost cause for us. I checked out on this one yesterday. It’s a shame because it’s a nice forehose that would work well later I. The season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: It’s a shame because it’s a nice forehose that would work well later I. The season. Yeah, it’s a crap roll of the dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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