sussexcountyobs Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Light rain and drizzle. 35° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Overcast temp 34 4” otg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1.3" was the total before the rain took hold, 34/32 with light rain. Will check the stake when it gets light out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Hi! I'll add a verification snowfall map around 9A today... for the first part of the storm and then do the two day tomorrow. Added below my thinking based on the op models. I like what is ahead and Kudos to the long rangers for pushing the Canadian block potential impacts. Nothing a done deal but it does look interesting. I may switch to the main Dec thread in couple of days if snow to the coast looks more likely. For now, biggest wintry impacts here in the interior. Big winter is here the next two weeks. I'll detail the wrapup elevation wet snow shortly. Ahead is a Rockies to the East Coast heavy duty dose of winter cold and snow events. Details to be determined. Plan on some sort of snow accumulation across basically the entire eastern half of the USA (excluding southern GA and FL) sometime between late next Thursday the 22nd and Wednesday the 28th. This will include the coldest air of the season so far arriving near Christmas. But let's not forget today. Today-tonight below: Poconos: Your winter storm warning continues. Expect an additional 2-5" of wet snow-sleet between 6AM and midnight. Power outages in your area should increase a bit today. Slippery at times, especially elevations. Sussex County NJ: Mainly near Montague, High Point, northern Wantage and possibly Vernon. Intermittent rain-wet snow-sleet-freezing on some surfaces above 1000 feet. Looks to me like an additional inch or 2 of wet snow possible, mainly elevations above 1000 feet near the Kittatinny ridge. Most roads just wet. w CT and western MA: Valleys may pick up 1-3" of manageable wet snow, mainly this afternoon-early tonight. However, northern Litchfield County CT and the Berkshires should receive anywhere from 3-9" of additional heavy wet snow between 6AM today and 2AM Saturday. Power outages may develop there. Ashford CT and Bostons northwest suburbs: Wind swept rain possibly mixed with wet snow at times but no accumulation today. However rain changes to wet snow tonight...with 1-3" likely between 10PM tonight and 8AM Saturday. Later Thursday through Friday Dec 22-23: A potentially high impact - much more extensive and stronger storm with heavier snowfall than what occurred yesterday from North Carolina northward to Canada. It could bring some snow to the big cities of Boston-NYC-Washington but just far too early to know details. There may be a short period of rain-ice? Wind may gust 50-60 MPH everywhere in the northeast USA for a few hours each day next Friday-Saturday. Ensemble probability map (click for clarity and see legend) attached for possible 3+" of snow. Dark green is favored but the coast is not excluded. Christmas (24th-27th): Blustery with the coldest temperatures so far this winter, for a couple of days. I had 3" in Wantage as of 250AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 One other note: I check GFS positive snow depth change and it did very well repeated cycles leading to this event for eastern PA/NJ and I think as well the rest of the I84 corridor. PLEase check it yourself on Tropical Tidbits. No matter: we can't be using 10-1 in this abnormally warm thickness situations where type is mixed and the models assign mixed as a 10-1 ratio. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 7 hours ago, jm1220 said: The airmass was lousy out ahead of this and if anything is even lousier than expected. Where I am was out of it as long as it was clear the strong easterly flow was happening but a better prior airmass could've saved a decent event for more and maybe even had a couple hour burst of snow here before rain. Maybe downslope and the warm easterly flow are hurting areas E of the Hudson. So basically west of the Poconos sucked for snow and east of NW NJ and the Hudson river also sucked for snow in this storm? That's a very narrow area that got good snows from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 7 hours ago, jm1220 said: This is crazy and has to be exaggerated to some extent. My snow average here is in the low 30s annually probably, there's no way Kingston/Poughkeepsie are 20" per winter. Downtown Albany only 40"/winter? Albany averages 65" of snow per season I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 hours ago, eduggs said: I think Albany is closer to 50" on that map. But they did have some lean years during that period. They missed out on some of the big ones that impacted the City and coastal region. I know the Saugerties - New Paltz area gets brutally downsloped. Still, those totals look sad. They should use the entire climate period instead of some small 30 year snapshot. I've always had that issue with these 30 year "averages" I think it's closer to a 65 inch average for Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 hours ago, lee59 said: The 1991-2020 average snowfall in Albany is 59.2 inches. Yeah I was going to say it's somewhere around 65, but 60 also looks reasonable. I don't like 30 year "averages" at any rate, the entire climate history should be used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Rain definitely got to my location overnight and maybe even further north, areas around got 5-7” before that happened from what I can see from storm reports. The most recent HRRR suggests another 4-5” here and 9” at the high elevations, I don’t believe it even at pure 10:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just had thunder here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yeah I was going to say it's somewhere around 65, but 60 also looks reasonable. I don't like 30 year "averages" at any rate, the entire climate history should be used. The averages really drop off once near the immediate shores of the Hudson. Down In Orange County I believe the averages along the Hudson are in the 35” range but increase to the 50-55” as you move west toward Middletown/Otisville with elevation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: 1.3" was the total before the rain took hold, 34/32 with light rain. Will check the stake when it gets light out. A stout 4” at the stake. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Albany snowfall records since the 1880s. I believe their average since then is about 60-65 inches https://www.weather.gov/media/aly/Climate/ALY_Seasonal_Snowfall_Totals.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Picked up 1.00" of rain yesterday. 0.47" so far today. Storm total 1.47" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 All through the Hudson Valley the differences are pretty dramatic based on elevation. My avg is somewhere near 50" for the last 30 years but many places within 25 miles are closer to 30" especially as you go lower and closer to the river. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Thanks for the updates and checking in ladies and gents as my kid was going to drive home ( we are in Rockland County ) from Buffalo today but I told him that he best stay put until tomorrow. Keep the reports coming in much appreciated 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 All rain and total of 0.42” in the bucket so far. Currently drizzle 37/35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, lee59 said: Albany snowfall records since the 1880s. I believe their average since then is about 60-65 inches https://www.weather.gov/media/aly/Climate/ALY_Seasonal_Snowfall_Totals.pdf Thanks I know I remembered 65 inches from somewhere lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, gravitylover said: All through the Hudson Valley the differences are pretty dramatic based on elevation. My avg is somewhere near 50" for the last 30 years but many places within 25 miles are closer to 30" especially as you go lower and closer to the river. Those are some fascinating gradients. I wonder if there's any kind of storm where everyone does well with snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Interesting ride down the Taconic this morning. When I got to 1200 feet there was snow for a mile or so but it was gone as I descended down the mountain. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Thanks for the updates and checking in ladies and gents as my kid was going to drive home ( we are in Rockland County ) from Buffalo today but I told him that he best stay put until tomorrow. Keep the reports coming in much appreciated Better safe than sorry. Even in the city there was a major accident on the Major Deegan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 50 minutes ago, snywx said: The averages really drop off once near the immediate shores of the Hudson. Down In Orange County I believe the averages along the Hudson are in the 35” range but increase to the 50-55” as you move west toward Middletown/Otisville with elevation I bet there is a Mt Pocono like elevaton around there where someone averages 70 inches lol. Maybe up near Monticello? That's right near the edge of our subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, gravitylover said: All through the Hudson Valley the differences are pretty dramatic based on elevation. My avg is somewhere near 50" for the last 30 years but many places within 25 miles are closer to 30" especially as you go lower and closer to the river. My 20 yr average is 53”. I’m pretty sure areas like Cornwall, highland falls, new Windsor are in the 35-40” range for the same period. Those towns are right on the western shores of the Hudson with elevation <200’ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I bet there is a Mt Pocono like elevaton around there where someone averages 70 inches lol. Maybe up near Monticello? That's right near the edge of our subforum. Yeah Monticello prob averages around 65-70”. That stretch between Rock Hill to MSV capitalize on these types of events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 31 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Thanks for the updates and checking in ladies and gents as my kid was going to drive home ( we are in Rockland County ) from Buffalo today but I told him that he best stay put until tomorrow. Keep the reports coming in much appreciated Heads up, a Lake Effect Snow Warning starts at 7pm tonight and runs until 1pm on Sunday for Buffalo. Hopefully a band sets up over Orchard Park tomorrow evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Heads up, a Lake Effect Snow Warning starts at 7pm tonight and runs until 1pm on Sunday for Buffalo. Hopefully a band sets up over Orchard Park tomorrow evening. Thanks Rob, appreciate it and I know my kid gets the local updates ( Buffalo ) That said the Dolphins were playing in warm L A against the Chargers last week and tomorrow night they are in Orchid Park = Big advantage Bills. Again thanks for the updates Rob and others 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 49 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Heads up, a Lake Effect Snow Warning starts at 7pm tonight and runs until 1pm on Sunday for Buffalo. Hopefully a band sets up over Orchard Park tomorrow evening. My kid is supposed to get on a plane at 6:30 this evening in Rochester, I'm hoping the "good stuff" holds off until after that so she doesn't have to spend the night (or more) in the airport. @Brasiluvsnowmaybe your son can pick her up on his way by if everything gets messed up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Albany snowfall records since the 1880s. I believe their average since then is about 60-65 inches https://www.weather.gov/media/aly/Climate/ALY_Seasonal_Snowfall_Totals.pdf I was in Albany for college and post grad from 2001-08; not too many ratters in the bunch. Seemed like it could snow almost daily during the winter at times. 2002/2003 winter was epic. I remember mountains of snow and an unlucky car that was left in the same parking spot all winter, encased in a glacier that blew out the back springs; that was before a front end loader ripped the back of the car off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Snow fall past 24 hours via CoCoRaHs and a sophisticated evaluation program (NOHRSC). LSR's not yet updated. May add late today? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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