12/15 - 12/16 Coastal/Winter Storm & Observations

[IrishRob17]

1” of new snow so far, 33/30, falling moderately here near Campbell Hall, elevation 385’

[sn0w]

1 hour ago, snywx said:

Mod snow here

temp 31

1.5” otg

Good luck out there just to my west...this one is gonna be painful over here...will probably see zero accumulation here and at the same latitude not too far west will be seeing 6"+

[lee59]

Some lightning reported near Virginia Beach, where the coastal must be taking place. If it can stay offshore and be fairly intense, that snow line may head back southeast at some point. 

[wishcast_hater]

Rain snow mix. .   Elevation 740'

[Tatamy]

Rain 35•

[Winterweatherlover]

28 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Just drove up from Harlem to Dutchess County.  Raining and 40 degrees down there and rain all the way to Putnam County then it stopped, temp dropped to 36 with light snow.  Got home and figured it would be a degree or two colder here but its 36 with nothing going on at the moment. Temps are pretty uniform from Westchester to up here.  I figured I might have a shot at snow as forecast highs for the entire week were incorrect and I stayed below freezing all week and of course today you can feel the difference. 

Unfortunately this was always going to be a difficult storm in terms of wintry precip east of the Hudson River. With that said there is some hint as the precip intensifies this evening that the rain/snow line may at least temporarily drag southeast.  

[gravitylover]

22 minutes ago, sn0w said:

Good luck out there just to my west...this one is gonna be painful over here...will probably see zero accumulation here and at the same latitude not too far west will be seeing 6"+

Heh, the snow that's falling is actually melting the snow that was on the ground. Gotta love Mahopac. Not 

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 1.8" as of 520PM. 

Attached the 12z HREF amounts by 12z Friday.  Very little snow after 2AM.  Already modeling may be too snowy in southern Sussex County?  Anyway,  will let this play out. 32.2 and riding here in Wantage and all of the state above freezing except northern Sussex County NJ. 

[ForestHillWx]

Finished with an 1.5” at home. Flipped to light rain. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

33 and light rain now. 

[MANDA]

Was in Central and Southern part of Morris County all day.  Just a trace to a tenth or two Morristown and Chatham area.  Returned home to a 2.7" plastering.  Was expecting 1-2" so overachieved.  Main roads in town wet to slushy.  Side roads snow covered and packed.  Temperature 32 currently with S-/IP- currently falling.  Accumulation is done.

[lee59]

Heavy rain on the radar just south of the city and Long Island.

[jm1220]

23 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Heavy rain on the radar just south of the city and Long Island.

Keep in mind some of what looks heavy S of NYC is bright banding which are what would've been our snowflakes melting in our delightful 41 degree maritime gunk. The liquid forming around the snowflakes artificially makes the radar think it's heavy precip. The radar is orange over my house and I'd say it's barely moderate rain. A few thousand feet up though at 850-900mb it's still cold enough for snow.

[sussexcountyobs]

Mod snow falling. Just measured 2.25"

[lee59]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Keep in mind some of what looks heavy S of NYC is bright banding which are what would've been our snowflakes melting in our delightful 41 degree maritime gunk. The liquid forming around the snowflakes artificially makes the radar think it's heavy precip. The radar is orange over my house and I'd say it's barely moderate rain. A few thousand feet up though at 850-900mb it's still cold enough for snow.

Ok did not realize that

[snywx]

Lgt snow

temp 32

2.5” otg

[Juliancolton]

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

Rain snow mix. .   Elevation 740'

I haven't seen any flakes here (600'). Pretty nasty weather on the whole. 

[gpsnavigator]

36 and light rain.  Snow accumulation ~1.7 inches has turned to slop.

[sussexcountyobs]

The last five or so minutes it lightened up and became sleety. Now precip has got moderate again and all snow. Whitenening everything thing we just shoveled 

[eduggs]

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This is very much like an early spring kind of storm

 

In some aspects, yes. But in elevation-dependent spring snowstorms, the spots over 1000ft in Putnam and Eastern Dutchess counties often cash in. The CMC and EC model depictions leading into this event didn't show that characteristic pattern. Instead they showed an elevation effect superimposed on a low level easterly flow shadowing effect.

[eduggs]

25 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I haven't seen any flakes here (600'). Pretty nasty weather on the whole. 

We'll see how the next heavier batch of precipitation plays out. But so far the Canadian seems to have verified better than the NAM and GFS with forecasted snowfall distribution. In fairness, the 3rd party algorithms that calculate snow based on the raw output may be to blame more than the model itself.

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We'll see how the next heavier batch of precipitation plays out. But so far the Canadian seems to have verified better than the NAM and GFS with forecasted snowfall distribution. In fairness, the 3rd party algorithms that calculate snow based on the raw output may be to blame more than the model itself.

Pretty much a complete fail for this winter storm in central PA-precip is breaking up/ending sooner than expected, less snow when there was heavy precipitation etc. But it could be totally different for places in this sub forum. As I said in an earlier post Central PA is one of the worst most frustrating places for winter weather now where it’s almost a given that winter storms will fail in some way.

Soundings are always best to look at vs clown maps. The models with the heavier snow had more dynamic cooling that held back any mid level warming. Southerly 700-850mb winds are never ideal. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

34 and doing absolutely nothing. 

[wdrag]

I try to comment to assist perspective on 10 to 1, positive snow depth and Kuchera. I'll continue.  My guess is that this will end up best as a Kuchera-positive snow depth blend (Ferrier replace positive snow depth change on the 3KNAM).  It's not over so I donate want to presuppose the HPC HREF is slightly overdone but I certainly don't see anything more than what isa on that 12z/15 24 hr prediction for 12z Friday. 

 

What we may need to watch for near sunrise Friday is little residual southward down the Hudson River marginal freezing air invading far NNJ??? This as presssure falls slip to our east. Cross isobaric CAD drainage. Still 1.8" here at 7 and just a mix of sleet/light snow near this time of post.  Possibly my last of the night. Walt 759P

[wdrag]

Also: NO cold air to the northeast to be drawn southwest into the system.  ORH 36 is not what I look for in a pretty good snowstorm here in SC. 

[sussexcountyobs]

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Also: NO cold air to the northeast to be drawn southwest into the system.  ORH 36 is not what I look for in a pretty good snowstorm here in SC. 

Heavy snow falling right now @ Canistear  Reservoir. Will measure in a few minutes.

[hudsonvalley21]

37/35 here in eastern Orange County 0.08” in the rain gauge. All liquid for the event so far. 

[snywx]

Snow starting to pick up again. Plowed roads have a fresh coating
 

temp 32

[snywx]

6 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Heavy snow falling right now @ Canistear  Reservoir. Will measure in a few minutes.

Keep those observations coming. It’s good to know what those echoes are producing to my south

[NepaJames8602]

Moderate snow falling, and it’s becoming very windy. Event total so far is 5.0” here in my part of the Poconos. Temp is 30 degrees.