12/15 - 12/16 Coastal/Winter Storm & Observations

[Tatamy]

6 minutes ago, snywx said:

What did the 6z Euro show snowfall wise. I’m hearing it ticked cooler

It did tick cooler.  Expected snowfall amounts in your area increased some.

[Cerinthe Major]

What is the latest thinking on arrival time?

[lee59]

36.4 here and overcast

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, Cerinthe Major said:

What is the latest thinking on arrival time?

Depends on your location.  If you are in the NYC area you will only see rain that develops this afternoon.

[JustinRP37]

I have to say I'm loving the move from Tuckahoe to up here in Patterson, NY. Feels and looks like winter. I do wish we were right on the line for this storm. It could be mostly rain or 3-6+. Either way, we are ready. Going to the Rangers tonight so heading home could be interesting. 

[ForestHillWx]

I’ve got 32 with a noticeable east wind. I’m not expecting much, but 1-2” would be nice. For reference I am about dead center between Route 80 and 78 sitting at 750’ asl. 
 

Last storm was an initial burst, followed by mostly mix/rain; ended with a car topper. My brother in Hamburg ended up with 2.5-3”. 

[wdrag]

919AM update: Main snow-ice damage on this storm for ne PA/nwNJ is Noon-midnight. Not changing snow forecast but adding that I am now pretty sure it will be very slippery near the Kittatinny ridge in Sussex County NJ (both sides) and that's where I'd put the odds for best chance 4-5" of snow-sleet. That includes Sandyston-Montague, western and northern Wantage-High Point area for a period of very slippery travel all untreated surfaces between 2P-midnight. For southern Wantage---not sure of more than 3" and pretty sure the valley from below 600 feet elevation Newton south is less than 3".

[snywx]

Overcast 

Temp : 26/23

[Tatamy]

Mixed snow/sleet  31/25

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

I have to say I'm loving the move from Tuckahoe to up here in Patterson, NY. Feels and looks like winter. I do wish we were right on the line for this storm. It could be mostly rain or 3-6+. Either way, we are ready. Going to the Rangers tonight so heading home could be interesting. 

I didn't know you were up there now. Yeah Patterson has some areas that have significantly different weather than most of the area. Where in the town are you? 

Here in Mahopac it's 31/29/E6 and it looks and feels like it wants to snow. 

[JustinRP37]

14 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I didn't know you were up there now. Yeah Patterson has some areas that have significantly different weather than most of the area. Where in the town are you? 

Here in Mahopac it's 31/29/E6 and it looks and feels like it wants to snow. 

I'm off 311, not far from Thunder Ridge! We moved up in July. It is like living in Vermont but still having the benefits of trains to the city. It does feel like snow, and I'm shocked how well our 2.5 inch snow pack has held up. It is amazing working in the Bronx and coming home and seeing the huge differences in weather. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

28 and cloudy. It's going to be interesting to see what happens here. I'm right on the Hudson in central Dutchess county about 10 miles north of Poughkeepsie and could get anywhere from near nothing to 6 inches or more if thermals are cold enough. 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I'm off 311, not far from Thunder Ridge! We moved up in July. It is like living in Vermont but still having the benefits of trains to the city. It does feel like snow, and I'm shocked how well our 2.5 inch snow pack has held up. It is amazing working in the Bronx and coming home and seeing the huge differences in weather. 

Thunder Ridge-my boys learned to ski there-some good memories.   Definitely colder up that way...

[wishcast_hater]

I'm South East of Hyde Park but my elevation is about 740' in Beekman.  My area tends to do much better than Poughkeepsie due to my elevation.  Still holding out for something instead of rain as I still have about 4" still on the ground.

[JustinRP37]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Thunder Ridge-my boys learned to ski there-some good memories.   Definitely colder up that way...

Hoping to hit it up some evenings with my four year-old boy. He loved skiing last year. Been cool watching them blow snow all week. It is weird the older I get the more I love winter (I thought it was supposed to be the other way around). I just look forward to cold-crisp nights and mornings with the crunch of snow under your feet. 

[Pequest]

Just went from nothing all morning to a light steady snow here in Central Warren County, NJ.

[ForestHillWx]

Per wunderground 33/26 in Chester with light snow.
 

At the office, basking ridge, looks grey out the window. No precip. 

[jm1220]

Not sure if or how it’ll translate east but this looks pretty underwhelming so far in central PA. Looking at State College webcams there’s a thick coating of probably sleet from earlier today and it’s been 32 degree cold rain for the last few hours (maybe some is accreting but not much). Colder models had them getting 7-9” even using Kuchera and the official forecast was 4-6”, doubtful that happens. Back edge is also steadily pushing east and dynamics won’t work to flip it to snow very well if precip gets spotty. 

[lee59]

39.5 degrees here, only interesting thing for me from this storm may be the wind

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

39.5 degrees here, only interesting thing for me from this storm may be the wind

Good point, gusts on the shore may reach 45mph. Wind advisory out for E Suffolk but may be shifted west. There’s a strong high north of us which will provide a solid pressure gradient. 

[ForestHillWx]

Had a burst of snow at the office in Basking  Ridge, now a mix. 

[Tatamy]

38 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not sure if or how it’ll translate east but this looks pretty underwhelming so far in central PA. Looking at State College webcams there’s a thick coating of probably sleet from earlier today and it’s been 32 degree cold rain for the last few hours (maybe some is accreting but not much). Colder models had them getting 7-9” even using Kuchera and the official forecast was 4-6”, doubtful that happens. Back edge is also steadily pushing east and dynamics won’t work to flip it to snow very well if precip gets spotty. 

As of now I would agree that forecasted snow amounts are going to bust in a lot of places.

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

As of now I would agree that forecasted snow amounts are going to bust in a lot of places.

They just flipped to snow in state college

[RU848789]

5 hours ago, wdrag said:

Good Thursday morning everyone. Dec 15. 

Snow amount confidence is below average for the I84 corridor because of mixed snow-sleet-rain, and temperatures marginal for sticking. Attempted details follow, along with 3 maps inclusive of the 3AM NWS snow amount forecast. Note there is very little cold air to draw into this storm with temperatures already above freezing from Boston all along the east coast and Worcester is sitting only at about freezing. This combined with the rather warm 1000-500MB thicknesses poses a challenge for 4" amounts occurring nw NJ (FWN) to POU. Power outages seem to be a potential problem Poconos-Berkshires in 32-33F heavy wet snow of 6+" tonight and gusty winds 25-35 MPH. 

mPing: Anyone notice its posting delays for businesses now.

I still think models selecting precip types and assigning snowfall in each time period is questionable.  00z/15 EC is down.  In my opinion: temps at 1PM here in nw NJ will decide how much sticks. If it's 35, the warmer models prevail. If its 32F the colder models prevail.  

 

Well it's almost 1 pm and temps in NW Sussex/Warren and the Poconos are at or below 32F - good luck with the snow.  We started as sleet here in the Edison area around noon and got a tiny coating before the quick changeover to rain.  That's it until late next week for us...

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ at 1249PM: 30.4F.  light ice pellet showers nearby Frankford Township.  

[Tatamy]

Steady snow falling here.  32•

[BlizzLuv]

Mix of rain and flakes here and 35.4F

[NepaJames8602]

Started as a Sleet/Snow mix here in the Poconos around noon. It has now primarily gone over to just snow, moderate to heavy at that. Temp is holding steady in the upper 20’s. Its going to be an interesting event here above 2k, Binghamton NWS warning is for 6 to 14 inches for my area,  with a tenth of an inch of ice. Winds tonight gusting upwards to 40mph here on the Plateau. Glad I got out of work and I’m home early, roads are going to become a mess in a hurry. 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Tatamy said:

Depends on your location.  If you are in the NYC area you will only see rain that develops this afternoon.

Cant underestimate the impact of heavy flooding rains and strong gusty winds though, I expect some basements to be flooded and coastal flooding and some roads to be flooded out.

That has more of an impact than snow does around here (Dec 1992 being a case in point.)

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, NepaJames8602 said:

Started as a Sleet/Snow mix here in the Poconos around noon. It has now primarily gone over to just snow, moderate to heavy at that. Temp is holding steady in the upper 20’s. Its going to be an interesting event here above 2k, Binghamton NWS warning is for 6 to 14 inches for my area,  with a tenth of an inch of ice. Winds tonight gusting upwards to 40mph here on the Plateau. Glad I got out of work and I’m home early, roads are going to become a mess in a hurry. 

This is probably more elevation dependent than latitude dependent.  I just got told to expect over a foot in Penn Forest township area too.