wdrag Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Always hope.. 06z/13 EC snow depth change is only 1" less than Kuchera. Also attached 09z/13 SREF snow depth change ending 15z/16. Use as you wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Quick note: am playing this one for the I84 corridor as LESS snowfall than that of this past Sunday. Impact may be similar due to occurrence mostly between 4P and 4A Friday but so far, can't get excited about snowfall above that of Sunday. nw NJ Sussex County: am thinking 1-2" snow will suffice for now with some sleet and probably a touch of ice. What about further east on 84 through the higher elevations on this side of the river? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, gravitylover said: What about further east on 84 through the higher elevations on this side of the river? Hi! Please see new guidance posted at 8A... a couple previous post. I just think overall this has to be less than Sunday but I could see Pocs 3-6... a little less Litchfield and Berks... follow NWS as well. Will be gone all day. 809A/13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I think the NAM and GFS GGEM should start melding through 00z/Fri on this 12z/13 run. You'll know before I... always hope. This is not completely locked as posted 6A-8A today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 25 minutes ago, wdrag said: I think the NAM and GFS GGEM should start melding through 00z/Fri on this 12z/13 run. You'll know before I... always hope. This is not completely locked as posted 6A-8A today. Euro is very close at the mid levels at least to joining the GFS GGEM camp. Note the slight bump to the east at 06z on the track of SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 52 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Euro is very close at the mid levels at least to joining the GFS GGEM camp. Note the slight bump to the east at 06z on the track of SLP. If history tells us anything its that when the models show rain its pretty much a lock. Sucks because I have a nice little snowpack in my neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 12z NAM takes a big step towards joining the GFS/GGEM camp with higher snow totals to the N&W of I287 and I80. Colder run this cycle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 The 12z runs are coming into good agreement on a paste job for interior sections particularly to the north and west of I80 and I287. I think 6-10” for elevations over 800-1000’ are possible. Places to the east of the Hudson River get less. Areas in NJ between I78 and I80 are definitely in the hunt with this one (lesser accumulations). This will be a front end thump and many of these areas can ultimately go over to rain before it wraps up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 18z Nam slightly warmer but still shows decent front end dump over interior but you need to be 50 miles N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: 18z Nam slightly warmer but still shows decent front end dump over interior but you need to be 50 miles away from coast it seems. Now go look at the 3k 18z Nam it’s night and day colder smh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: Now go look at the 3k 18z Nam it’s night and day colder smh It is colder which would have an impact on NW Jersey. I'm all for colder solutions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: 18z Nam slightly warmer but still shows decent front end dump over interior but you need to be 50 miles N and W. That’s amazing for the dacks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Hi... I've seen 12 and 18z/13 guidance and the slight eastward drift--- heavier snowfall for the I84 corridor Berks/Litchfield to the Pocs/nw Nj and Easton PA. Hopefully this holds. I'm not committing to this being correct... have too often seen that the snow turns to sleet with modeled temps to 0C between 900-750MB. NAM3K is colder than than the 12KM NAM. Hope that's right! VV will be important. Meanwhile RGEM trimming slightly. or me... Sussex County 1-5 allowing higher side based on 12z/18z general trends. I think NWS Watch is solid for the POCS. No matter, I see a slippery Thu eve commute here in nw NJ/all of ne PA. Will rearview at 6A Wed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 31 minutes ago, qg_omega said: That’s amazing for the dacks N Catskills too. Would be great to be at Hunter Mountain for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Area with at least some % of exceeding 12". We don't even rate in the 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: N Catskills too. Would be great to be at Hunter Mountain for this. I’ll be at my house in the southern greens of Vt. Could easily jackpot in the 20+ range. We do really well on an east upslope flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 18z GFS still a colder solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 0z NAM continues to be toasty at the mid levels. You need to be in the Catskills to see meaningful snow accumulations on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 0z NAM continues to be toasty at the mid levels. You need to be in the Catskills to see meaningful snow accumulations on this run. The flow at 700 and 850 is from the south so not a surprise. There might be a nasty area of icing where temps aloft get above freezing but cold air lingers at the surface. NAM might be a little too warm at mid levels but it’ll tend to be closer to the truth than other models without the warm layer aloft. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 RGEM is better but becoming clear you need to be well NW, probably NW of I-84 and with some elevation to see a good event from this. The strong southerly flow at mid levels and easterly flow at the surface-not a good combo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: RGEM is better but becoming clear you need to be well NW, probably NW of I-84 and with some elevation to see a good event from this. The strong southerly flow at mid levels and easterly flow at the surface-not a good combo. It's actually worse east of the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 GFS says I'll see you and raise you 48 hours before start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Overnight models continue with the theme of the significant snows being north and west of I287 and I80 and west of the Hudson River. Snow during the day Thursday mixes with other forms of frozen/freezing precip at night. I am thinking 3-6” with higher amounts up towards the Catskills. GFS with its consistent theme of higher snow amounts between I78 and I80 is an outlier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Good morning, I'm probably an outlier and possibly wrong but am concerned about model snow conversion rates in mixed events and 543-546 1000-500MB thickness . NAM tends to be better in these situations with mid level warming so I am conservative on this. I don't like embarrassing myself so I put this out there, with low confidence on all this being reasonable and I could be too low on my expectations. Just don't like the NAM warming aloft. It. continues to look like the northeast USA will see two or three wintry impact storms between the 15th and 28th, sandwiching a briefly much colder than normal period between the 24th and 27th (Christmas weekend). Thursday-Friday Dec 15-16: Mainly I-84 corridor north to Canada. Baltimore starts it off with a little ice 4A-9A Thursday morning which should slow the morning commute, otherwise mostly rain there. Philly area may see a little ice or snow at the beginning 8A-11A Thursday but it too is of short duration and low impact, except possibly the distant western Philadelphia suburbs. Advisories are posted. I-84 corridor itself will see a few hours of snow-sleet Thursday afternoon-night eventually change to rain by Friday morning, then possibly end as snow or flurries late Friday. Timing of the changes is stated with low confidence. The longer it snows, the better chance for heavier amounts but for now the breakdown follows: Easton Pa-Warren County: Snow sleet begins 11A-Noon and changes to plain rain 6P-9P Thursday with maybe an inch or 2 of slush. It may be very slippery for a time. The rest of the storm is rain. An advisory is posted. Poconos: a Winter Storm Watch continues: Snow-sleet-freezing rain begins around Noon Thursday changing to virtually all rain by midnight Thursday night (except ice highest elevations) then back to snow midday Friday. All totaled: looks like 3-7" before the snow ends Friday night. Confidence on details is low... but it will be very slippery at times Thursday afternoon and evening. Sussex County NJ: snow sleet should begin 11A-1P Thursday changing to all rain by midnight Thursday evening, except possibly several hours of ice along the NYS border-High Point. My expectation is 1-4". Best chance of 4"=High Point area while best chance for lower amounts of 1 or 2" is Newton southeast to Byram-Hopatcong area. This storm could end as a little wet snow Friday afternoon-evening but most areas would see less than 1" additional, if that. w CT and interior MA: snow should begin 4P-8P Thursday then turn to sleet and finally over to rain by sunrise Friday or possibly continue as wet snow parts of w MA. Most of this area should see 1-3" of snow before the change to rain, but the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills might end up with 4-8" in a few spots--maybe more un there in the Berkshires?? Ashford CT and Bostons northwest suburbs I see you an inch or less with snow with possibly mostly rain this event. You might get most of your snow Friday night as the storm heads out to sea... NWS deterministic forecast at 3A today; plus NWS ensemble probs for 2" and 4+". Click for clarity and use color bars. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 @wdragthe last thing you of all posters here need to worry about is embarrassing yourself. Thanks for the update. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 20 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: @wdragthe last thing you of all posters here need to worry about is embarrassing yourself. Thanks for the update. 1000% agree 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 06Z/14 EC and latest 09z/14 SREF say I'm an inch or 2 too low on high amounts Poconos extreme nw Sussex County and w CT/W MA. Not guaranteeing anything. Willcheck again at 6P today. Have fun with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 I'm ok with this one staying W and N, I have a bunch of driving around the metro to do on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: @wdragthe last thing you of all posters here need to worry about is embarrassing yourself. Thanks for the update. 48 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: 1000% agree 26 minutes ago, wdrag said: 06Z/14 EC and latest 09z/14 SREF say I'm an inch or 2 too low on high amounts Poconos extreme nw Sussex County and w CT/W MA. Not guaranteeing anything. Willcheck again at 6P today. Have fun with this. Good morning Walt, Rob, Hudson. As Rob and Hudson have well said, you are a breath of hopefully cold enough air. Besides, if their is any embarrassment at all, it will likely be found in the December thread. Thank you for your well thought predictions. As always …. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now