WesternFringe Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 LWX upped ice accumulation totals about 40 minutes ago 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 WB 18Z 3K NAM stopped its bleed SE and did shift back a tad NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Few more counties added to the WSW URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 316 PM EST Tue Dec 13 2022 VAZ028-030-031-WVZ051>053-140400- /O.EXB.KLWX.WS.A.0007.221215T0500Z-221215T2300Z/ Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 316 PM EST Tue Dec 13 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Freezing rain and sleet. Significant ice accumulation around a quarter of an inch, with up to half an inch possible along the ridges. Total sleet accumulations around one inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Virginia and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...Wintry precipitation begins as early as Wednesday evening, then becomes more intense overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Warmer air should push into the valleys by Thursday afternoon, but freezing rain likely continues on the ridges through through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions will likely impact the morning and evening commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Few more counties added to the WSW URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 316 PM EST Tue Dec 13 2022 VAZ028-030-031-WVZ051>053-140400- /O.EXB.KLWX.WS.A.0007.221215T0500Z-221215T2300Z/ Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 316 PM EST Tue Dec 13 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Freezing rain and sleet. Significant ice accumulation around a quarter of an inch, with up to half an inch possible along the ridges. Total sleet accumulations around one inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Virginia and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...Wintry precipitation begins as early as Wednesday evening, then becomes more intense overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Warmer air should push into the valleys by Thursday afternoon, but freezing rain likely continues on the ridges through through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions will likely impact the morning and evening commutes. Yeah they just added the Winchester area into the mix. Looks like they are thinking sleet here. Dewpoints at onset have actually come down a little bit today with the 12Z runs. Mid teens for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah they just added the Winchester area into the mix. Looks like they are thinking sleet here. Dewpoints at onset have actually come down a little bit today with the 12Z runs. Mid teens for my area. Yep, 3k showing mid to upper teens in the watch areas. Even in non watch areas teens and 20s. I always think you should half/third the ice maps given latent heat release, etc to get an idea for actual accretion. But even doing that is a highly impactful event in the mountains and impactful for 81. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I’m going to predict the cloud increasing holds off until 7/8pm Wednesday. By then DCA temps and dewpoints I think will be 37/20 and if we can get precip that is not real light but closer to light-moderate then by midnight-2am DCA should be 30/28 and it’s going to be worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Cold rain, the Bane of my existence. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Low dewpoints are fun 41 at 4:30. 39 at 5 . 34 at 5:30. 32 at 6:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Low dewpoints are fun 41 at 4:30. 39 at 5 . 34 at 5:30 were getting a big bag of WTF and you will enjoy every cold raindrop/pellet 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 55 minutes ago, Ji said: were getting a big bag of WTF and you will enjoy every cold raindrop/pellet Yes sir Mr J* and you get the obs thread rolling!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 WB 21Z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 21Z SREF we will be in the white soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: we will be in the white soon I am not a fan of freezing rain, fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I am not a fan of freezing rain, fine by me. did 18z euro show further regression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: did 18z euro show further regression? About the same. WB 18Z EURO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 18z Euro by precip type. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 @nj2vaor @Weather Willthose euro shots of zr accumulation, you happen to have them as to what they show just a tick south of that map in SW VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 WB 0Z 3K NAM. All areas east of mountains change to rain before noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 0Z HRRR quite a bit warmer than other guidance. Maybe it will score a coup for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Pivotal’s FRAM ice output for the nam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 0Z HRRR quite a bit warmer than other guidance. Maybe it will score a coup for once. It’s always too warm in the extended..beyond 18hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 59 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z Euro by precip type. That's French for "rain" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, mappy said: Pivotal’s FRAM ice output for the nam how much ice when it is half orange and half blue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: how much ice when it is half orange and half blue? Half as much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 37 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: how much ice when it is half orange and half blue? Ah sorry, didn’t realize I cut off the legend #mappyfail 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Looks like they did up totals a little along the M/D line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 5 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Low dewpoints are fun 41 at 4:30. 39 at 5:30. 35 at 6:30 . 32 at 7:30 26 at 11:30 man I wish the moisture was here midnight now instead same time tomorrow. Temps and dews won’t be as favorable but how much higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Ji said: did 18z euro show further regression? It’s loaded with stalls and regressions last 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 WB 0Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 See what sun can do tomorrow. Winds still mostly north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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