NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Does the RDPS normally run colder than most models? The Freezing Rain totals are prolific, even if you cut them in half here..Anecdotally, the Canadian hi-res stuff tends to run cold and overdo precip. That said, I’m considering a pivot off from my plans to go to Deep Creek for snow (looking less likely) to head to Staunton if it looks like a serious ice storm. Supposed to head that way Friday night anyway but might arrive a day or two earlier to scout out a real ice storm, if it comes to pass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Does the RDPS normally run colder than most models? The Freezing Rain totals are prolific, even if you cut them in half here.. 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah that's a weenie model. It bullseyes my county, so no it’s not. Lol In actuality, I think there is zero chance of 2” of freezing rain verifying here, but would love to see it (minus the requisite power outages and accidents, of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 I learned last year that in these marginal setups, these positive snow depth change maps almost never verify for MBY. But hey, we'll get on the board in some way maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 I learned last year that in these marginal setups, these positive snow depth change maps almost never verify for MBY. But hey, we'll get on the board in some way maybe? It doesn’t take much looking at the soundings to know that map is unfortunately off base, but it’s a fairly impactful (icy) run for everyone outside of the cities/SE. It’s not horrifically far off at the mids and pretty close at the surface tho - wouldn’t take too much trending to get the ice impacts further East, as others have already said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Watch this be an event where we clear out after dusk Wednesday for a few hours and then wet bulb like 2 or 3 degrees colder and jackpot. We're good for one of those a year. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Precise timing and orientation varies, but this s/w could produce some flurries or snow showers Saturday I’d think. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Precise timing and orientation varies, but this s/w could produce some flurries or snow showers Saturday I’d think. Backend flurries from something that was a tad warm or north is something we oddly do well here for some reason, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Well we certainly don't need any thing close to the Nov 2018 ice storm over here in the central valley....that was a crazy night booms & cracks and bright lights flashing in the sky.... Although that was more of a prolonged period of lighter rain/heavy drizzle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 55 minutes ago, Paleocene said: I learned last year that in these marginal setups, these positive snow depth change maps almost never verify for MBY. But hey, we'll get on the board in some way maybe? One word sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 41 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Precise timing and orientation varies, but this s/w could produce some flurries or snow showers Saturday I’d think. Yeah, looks potent enough for light accs up and down the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Dewpoints in the low 20's heading into the event for the Shen Valley drops surface temps to the mid to high 20's for a few hours after onset. Could be quite a mess for a while until Thursday afternoon actually. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah, increasingly becoming likely Cumberland west to deep creek see ice warning criteria met. Dews are in the teens out there at onset with temps during the storm in the mid to upper 20s. Only positive is precious looks to be moderate to heavy at times which should limit the accretion. But still a potentially high impact event out there followed by upslope snow showers Friday night/Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: One word sleet. That's not correct. The snowfall includes sleet, so those 10:1 maps are useless in any type of mixed event. The map being shown, though, is the change in snow depth which correctly applies a very low ratio with sleet. I'm not saying that this GFS map will verify - just saying that it's not the same issue as with 10:1 snowfall maps. 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yeah, increasingly becoming likely Cumberland west to deep creek see ice warning criteria met. Dews are in the teens out there at onset with temps during the storm in the mid to upper 20s. Only positive is precious looks to be moderate to heavy at times which should limit the accretion. But still a potentially high impact event out there followed by upslope snow showers Friday night/Saturday. Please correct if wrong, but from a purely climo POV high impact all ZR events at DCL are more rare than locations where CAD is climatologically favored. Meaning, 9/10 times I see ZR in the zones for Garrett, it turns out to be PL/SN or nothing at all. Noting these things seem to occur as a seasonal trend, and pointing out there was 24 hours of ZR / freezing fog at DCL just this past weekend (forecast verified), and it was anything but a high impact event there (WWA maybe didn't entirely verify). That said, it did get me wondering about all those depictions of mid level warm air being more than just a modeling anamoly vs. maybe a hint of a sesonal trend (hoping not). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Verbatim, 18z EURO is nasty for the mountains and favored spots but doesn't get much into the metro. Unlike past runs, though, it transitions NMD to snow for a time -- basically jumped the trace line ~50m to the south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 We are also in LWX "first guess" range. Maybe a bit snowier than expected... considering expectations are for near-nil. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 hour ago, RIC_WX said: Please correct if wrong, but from a purely climo POV high impact all ZR events at DCL are more rare than locations where CAD is climatologically favored. Meaning, 9/10 times I see ZR in the zones for Garrett, it turns out to be PL/SN or nothing at all. Noting these things seem to occur as a seasonal trend, and pointing out there was 24 hours of ZR / freezing fog at DCL just this past weekend (forecast verified), and it was anything but a high impact event there (WWA maybe didn't entirely verify). That said, it did get me wondering about all those depictions of mid level warm air being more than just a modeling anamoly vs. maybe a hint of a sesonal trend (hoping not). Yes, CAD doesn't hold on as long on the ridges/mountains vs valley areas - places like Cumberland west to Frostburg are better spots for icing. Similarly, I've seen plenty of setups where Garrett holds onto all snow longer than higher elevations in WV (Canaan) that flip earlier to sleet once the mid levels warm. In our 6 years of having our house out there, I've been there for a few 0.25"+ ice accretions but wasn't high impact in terms of power disruptions, etc. The one that does come to mind was maybe 2 (or 3) years ago where Deep Creek got over 0.5" of ice accretion and had power outages and we lost two trees on our property. I'm terrible at remembering dates/exacts of events and we weren't there for it, but that was one of the more memorable ones that I can recall. ^^That's a good first call for ice out there IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 39 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Verbatim, 18z EURO is nasty for the mountains and favored spots but doesn't get much into the metro. Unlike past runs, though, it transitions NMD to snow for a time -- basically jumped the trace line ~50m to the south. Was just looking through the 18z Euro and agree that its better for the far western zones in that it flips back to sleet/snow from freezing rain during the event. The 6” line is close to the M/D border in western MD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Marginal event so every bit matters -- 18z EPS keeps nearly everyone 1-2F colder at the surface during the event timeframe. 850s are 1-2C colder -- which is a pretty big jump. Can't see 925s unfortunately. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 lol DC 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Marginal event so every bit matters -- 18z EPS keeps nearly everyone 1-2F colder at the surface during the event timeframe. 850s are 1-2C colder -- which is a pretty big jump. Can't see 925s unfortunately. Sounding at/near IAD during the onset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, Terpeast said: Sounding at/near IAD during the onset. Pretty close. One or two more nudges and maybe we could start talking about a quick thump? Maybe we can get our first NAMming of the year in a few minutes. Also - thanks for the reminder on EURO soundings on TTT. Crazy that data is free now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 LWX mentioned in todays disco that the warm layer is shallower than previously modeled adding to the uncertainty in the forecast and potential for more frozen. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 18z gfs would be ugly for places that stay frozen. Gross. I am a fan of LWX’s first call map. It’s reasonable given the setup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: LWX mentioned in todays disco that the warm layer is shallower than previously modeled adding to the uncertainty in the forecast and potential for more frozen. Yup, gfs and euro soundings show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 WB 21Z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Nam sweetened the pot again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 00z NAM not really coming in colder but the cold looks to stay entrenched a bit longer, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: 00z NAM not really coming in colder but the cold looks to stay entrenched a bit longer, fwiw. Looks to have cut back pretty good bit on overall qpf. Nam known to do that since last upgrade however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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