December 15-16 Mixed Bag of Precip

[H2O]

Torching 41/25. All this road spraying gonna get washed away

[Interstate]

Just now, H2O said:

Torching 41/25. All this road spraying gonna get washed away

I am surprised with that temp it didn't evaporate yet.

[H2O]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

I am surprised with that temp it didn't evaporate yet.

It turned to dust quickly and there was a nice white cloud on the main roads

[yoda]

Afternoon AFD from LWX on the event... surprised at the bolded I highlighted 

 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Cloudy and calm conditions through the rest of this afternoon,

with temps generally in the low 40s along the metro, and upper

30s in most other locations. Light returns are noted on our LWX

radar, but very little to none of that is reaching the ground as

there is still so much low-level dry air. The bulk of the rain,

as noted in the RLX radar, is still in WV from Parkersburg to

Charleston westward.

 

The forecast remains on track for a significant ice storm tonight

through Thursday afternoon along and west of the Blue Ridge.

Significant travel delays are expected along many major area

roadways (including I-81, I-68, I-66, I-64, I-70, I-270, I-83),

with closures possible in some areas, especially along/west of

the Blue Ridge. Regardless, travel is going to be hazardous west

of I-95, and could be dangerous along and west of the Blue

Ridge for the Thursday morning and Thursday evening commutes.

 

Ice accumulations of two to four tenths of an inch, with

localized higher amounts nearing one half of an inch along the

ridges are expected in areas under the Ice Storm Warning. Along

the Allegheny Front, ice accumulations nearing three quarters of

an inch are possible. For those under Winter Weather Advisories,

total ice accumulations of one to two tenths of an inch are

expected, with those higher amounts west of I-95. The forecast

is most uncertainty right along and just east of I-95 where

warm air advecting in will play a big role in how long, if at

all, freezing rain impacts the immediate DC/Baltimore metro

areas.

 

Precip will transition to a cold rain from southeast to

northwest, first along/east of I-95 by 10AM Thursday, then for

most areas east of the Blue Ridge by early afternoon. For those

west of the Blue Ridge, freezing rain hangs on through the early

afternoon, transitioning to a cold rain by late afternoon.

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

41 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

 

I went out on a limb with my 11th grader and say a 60-70% chance of at least a delay. 30-40% closing. Her teachers today were calling a 80% chance of closing. 

I was going with a 40-60 percent chance of delay when I told my teachers and classmates and almost 0 percent chance of closing.

[Imgoinhungry]

Afternoon AFD from LWX on the event... surprised at the bolded I highlighted 
 
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cloudy and calm conditions through the rest of this afternoon,
with temps generally in the low 40s along the metro, and upper
30s in most other locations. Light returns are noted on our LWX
radar, but very little to none of that is reaching the ground as
there is still so much low-level dry air. The bulk of the rain,
as noted in the RLX radar, is still in WV from Parkersburg to
Charleston westward.
 
The forecast remains on track for a significant ice storm tonight
through Thursday afternoon along and west of the Blue Ridge.
Significant travel delays are expected along many major area
roadways (including I-81, I-68, I-66, I-64, I-70, I-270, I-83),
with closures possible in some areas, especially along/west of
the Blue Ridge. Regardless, travel is going to be hazardous west
of I-95, and could be dangerous along and west of the Blue
Ridge for the Thursday morning and Thursday evening commutes.
 
Ice accumulations of two to four tenths of an inch, with
localized higher amounts nearing one half of an inch along the
ridges are expected in areas under the Ice Storm Warning. Along
the Allegheny Front, ice accumulations nearing three quarters of
an inch are possible. For those under Winter Weather Advisories,
total ice accumulations of one to two tenths of an inch are
expected, with those higher amounts west of I-95. The forecast
is most uncertainty right along and just east of I-95 where
warm air advecting in will play a big role in how long, if at
all, freezing rain impacts the immediate DC/Baltimore metro
areas.
 
Precip will transition to a cold rain from southeast to
northwest, first along/east of I-95 by 10AM Thursday, then for
most areas east of the Blue Ridge by early afternoon. For those
west of the Blue Ridge, freezing rain hangs on through the early
afternoon, transitioning to a cold rain by late afternoon.
 
 

Mets seem to be all over the place. Listened to Kammerer kind of lowball the problems. Doesn’t think school closures will be needed.


.

[midatlanticweather]

37/21 in Purcellville

 

[CAPE]

36/21

Might see one mangled flake and a few sleet pellets before the steady rain gets going with rising temps. We do this so well.

[WEATHER53]

39 at 4:15 down 2F from the  high of 41 at 3:15

Dews  not coming up and baro not relenting and thin cloud cover not preventing temp drop off.  Lower and thicker clouds look 1-2 hours away

i think us Obs Warriors will have something to work on!

[TSSN+]

33/23 at home. Smells of ice 

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Just to get it on the record - what do you actually think happens? Always curious what you’re thinking

I think we get5-6 hours of sleet and snow that tapers to drizzle and is not 0.35”+ of freezing rain.  Then by late Thursday afternoon all rain for everyone even 25+ miles north and west of DC 

[Baltimorewx]

7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I think we get5-6 hours of sleet and snow that tapers to drizzle and is not 0.35”+ of freezing rain.  Then by late Thursday afternoon all rain for everyone even 25+ miles north and west of DC 

Theres absolutely nothing that points to 5-6 hours of snow/sleet for anyone so good luck with that...

[WEATHER53]

1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

Theres absolutely nothing that points to 5-6 hours of snow/sleet for anyone so good luck with that...

Well instead of telling me what I don’t have-What do you have to say?

[Baltimorewx]

4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Well instead of telling me what I don’t have-What do you have to say?

The issue initially isnt the dewpoint. You seem to be focused on that. Dewpoint doesnt effect preciptation types. Warm noses do.

[WEATHER53]

5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

The issue initially isnt the dewpoint. You seem to be focused on that. Dewpoint doesnt effect preciptation types. Warm noses do.

Then please  be a useful participant with the Obs thread as  things unfold  

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

The issue initially isnt the dewpoint. You seem to be focused on that. Dewpoint doesnt effect preciptation types. Warm noses do.

Smells of snow 

[katabatic]

Interestingly in MLP, temp has remained steady at 33.9, but DP rose from 15.5 to 21.4 in the last few hours. 

[Yeoman]

It's already raining aloft

[clskinsfan]

Stayed cloudy all day. Reached a high of 35. Temps and DP's falling now. HRRR has gotten colder and wetter the past couple of runs. Could get ugly I guess. 

33/20

[WesternFringe]

35/30 and intermittent sprinkles here NW of Staunton

[Kmlwx]

36/23 in Colesville 

[dailylurker]

30 minutes ago, CAPE said:

36/21

Might see one mangled flake and a few sleet pellets before the steady rain gets going with rising temps. We do this so well.

Ahhh.. life in the lowlands. I don't miss it. It's been hovering at 33 here on the Carroll County highlands lol. I'm expecting my location to do well with this one. We'll hang on to ice longer then 2 miles down the hill will. 

[Solution Man]

We fail good in this region

[TSSN+]

Let’s get er going 

[IUsedToHateCold]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

We fail good in this region

It’s been modeled like this for days. We shouldn’t have expected anything. I was hoping to see a flake but even that looks to be out of the question. The warm air aloft is real. Oh well. 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

It’s been modeled like this for days. We shouldn’t have expected anything. I was hoping to see a flake but even that looks to be out of the question. The warm air aloft is real. Oh well. 

We can only hope, I hope for snow all the time but reality is a son of a gun.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Frederick VA closed tomorrow.  Leading the way! Lol.

[WVclimo]

Berkeley County WV where I live just closed schools for tomorrow.  
35/18 here at dusk

[Imgoinhungry]

We fail good in this region

What failure? Think forecast for ice has been consistent for the past 3 days?


.

[nj2va]

29.7/19 at McHenry. LWX’s update tells me it’s unlikely I’m driving to Deep Creek Friday morning  

62 and sunny here in San Diego.