Weather Will Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 WB 0Z 12K NAM. Treacherous Th. Am commute for N & W suburbs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 ^ gross. That would be up there with the early February 2014 event (before the bigger snow mid month). Picked up .3” zr from that one and lost power for a day plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 RGEM has a further west TPV and weaker ridging over Ohio Valley/Eastern 1/3 of US(based on looking at vorticity and isobars). This is likely why we saw a colder solution this run, with colder temps at SFC and 925mb. We did however have warmer 850mb temps. We will know more tomorrow as mesoscale models get into their better ranges and more things get sorted out. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said: RGEM has a further west TPV and weaker ridging over Ohio Valley/Eastern 1/3 of US(based on looking at vorticity and isobars). This is likely why we saw a colder solution this run, with colder temps at SFC and 925mb. We did however have warmer 850mb temps. We will know more tomorrow as mesoscale models get into their better ranges and more things get sorted out. Thank you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 GFS putting down some ice storm totals! I know it is way overdone on Pivotal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 FWIW, GFS has a better run with lower heights over eastern 1/3 of US, less seperation between departing 50/50 and the ULL, and more confluence(heights over Canada further south). This all helps bring a better CAD signature and a further south ULL. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 WB 0Z 12K NAM. Treacherous Th. Am commute for N & W suburbs.You'll be fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 6z NAM 3k packing a punch...Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 WB 6Z 3K NAM. Wind as well. I would plan for widespread power outages in NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Winter storm watch for places west of Winchester/Martinsburg/Hagerstown, mostly for the ice ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations in excess of one quarter of an inch possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 LWX dropped those 1-2 snow totals, <1 for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 342 AM EST Tue Dec 13 2022 MDZ001-501-502-WVZ050-055-501>504-131645- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0007.221215T0300Z-221216T0600Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Hampshire-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral- Eastern Mineral- 342 AM EST Tue Dec 13 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations in excess of one quarter of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice and strong winds. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions will likely impact the morning and evening commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 342 AM EST Tue Dec 13 2022 VAZ025>027-029-503-504-507-508-WVZ505-506-131645- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0007.221215T0000Z-221216T0300Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 342 AM EST Tue Dec 13 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations in excess of one quarter of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, northwest and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions will likely impact the morning and evening commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 LWX dropped those 1-2 snow totals, Which means no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 LWX 4am discussion .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Clouds will be thickening Wednesday morning in advance of storm system developing over the TN River Valley and southern mid- Atlantic. Overrunning precip is expected to move into the central Shenandoah Valley and central VA Wed afternoon. With very high 850- 700 mb thicknesses, main p-type through Thu is expected to be frza west of the Blue Ridge Mountains, fzra to rain east of Blue Ridge and I-95, and mainly rain along and east of I-95. This is going to be a very heavy precip event with even the "driest" top three ensemble members from the EPS showing an inch or more of liquid and median values of 1.5 to 2.0 inches. The source of cold air is likely too far north (northern Quebec or Newfoundland) to keep the cold air in place for a long period of time, however, in-situ damming from evaporational cooling will likely help strengthen the wedge. Given the amount of precip expected, there is the potential for signifcant icing to occur across the higher elevs and deeper valleys in eastern WV and western MD. For this reason, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for areas west of the Blue Ridge and Skyline Drive with likelihood of Ice Storm Warnings needed by Wed morning. The storm system will be crossing the area late Thu night with steady precip ending, but some wrap around rain/showers and mountain snow showers lingering into Fri. There is also the potential for strong winds across the mountains Thu that will have additional impacts on trees and powerlines with ice accretion and those in the mountain areas should be prepared for extended power outages and road closures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1-2" of rain so the grass should green up nicely for Christmas at least. I may put some seed and fertilizer down today. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 WB 6Z EURO…what is the criteria for an ice storm warning? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO…what is the criteria for an ice storm warning? quarter inch or more. I could see places under the winter storm watch going ice storm warning by tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 There will be a little ice out by Mt. Airy and Sykesville and my kids will get a "rain day" Thursday. Book it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: There will be a little ice out by Mt. Airy and Sykesville and my kids will get a "rain day" Thursday. Book it. does howard county not split like baltimore county does? BaltCo has the Hereford Zone, then the southern part and my kid could have a day off while the southern half of the county goes to school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, mappy said: does howard county not split like baltimore county does? BaltCo has the Hereford Zone, then the southern part and my kid could have a day off while the southern half of the county goes to school. Nope, we're uniters not dividers in HoCo! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nope, we're uniters not dividers in HoCo! Man, I can't even begin to imagine the uproar that dividing Howard county during marginal events would cause. The biggest whiners would be the teachers. On topic, I expect enough to cause a delay and re-evaluation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nope, we're uniters not dividers in HoCo! Ha, fair enough. Happy delay to your kids! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 A lot is going to depend on cloud cover early in the eve/night. We are not coming out of a cold period where surfaces are already below freezing and temps seem to be in that 30-32 range during any icing. Unless things tick colder by 2-3 degrees I just don't see this being much of an issue outside of the far western valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Man, I can't even begin to imagine the uproar that dividing Howard county during marginal events would cause. The biggest whiners would be the teachers. On topic, I expect enough to cause a delay and re-evaluation. Given the redistricting experiences I've watched, I'd imagine some very angry people with strange alliances of convenience. "Easiest" way would be to have the Glenelg HS and its feeder schools separated for these sort of events, but I've seen no major effort to try and do something like the Hereford zone for HoCo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 The best conditions for optimal ice accretion are greater wind speeds(takes away hear from surfaces and advects cooler air), small droplets falling through a shallow melting layer, lower wetbulb temperatures, and lighter precipitation rates(heavier precipitation rates lead to more runoff and less efficient accretion). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Given the redistricting experiences I've watched, I'd imagine some very angry people with strange alliances of convenience. "Easiest" way would be to have the Glenelg HS and its feeder schools separated for these sort of events, but I've seen no major effort to try and do something like the Hereford zone for HoCo. Loudoun is the same way there's no way kids in Ji's hood in eastern Loudoun should get off school because it snowed or iced in western Loudoun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said: The best conditions for optimal ice accretion are greater wind speeds(takes away hear from surfaces and advects cooler air), small droplets falling through a shallow melting layer, lower wetbulb temperatures, and lighter precipitation rates(heavier precipitation rates lead to more runoff and less efficient accretion). Agreed but I have found that light wind is best. Too much wind and or heavier precip both help to encourage mixing of what is typically a very shallow subfreezing surface layer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: The best conditions for optimal ice accretion are greater wind speeds(takes away hear from surfaces and advects cooler air), small droplets falling through a shallow melting layer, lower wetbulb temperatures, and lighter precipitation rates(heavier precipitation rates lead to more runoff and less efficient accretion). Yep - and all of those factors contribute to why significant ice storms are exceedingly rare in most of our area (except in favored areas, perhaps). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now