WinterWolf Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this has overperformer written all over it. I was pretty struck by the soundings yesterday and the shortwave has always been very vigorous on the models. This may end up being a much better event than we all were first thinking. Question Will: If this(tonight’s system)ends up more powerful, could this positively impact Friday’s potential(as a 50/50 low, pushing Friday’s system further south and east)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this has overperformer written all over it. I was pretty struck by the soundings yesterday and the shortwave has always been very vigorous on the models. NAM is really nice once again for CT, keeps bouncing the jack around but the signal is definitely there. I think I'd trust the high res more in this instance given the dynamic nature of this one but there may be some serious winners and losers if you're on the right/wrong side of a heavy band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: This may end up being a much better event than we all were first thinking. Question Will: If this(tonight’s system)ends up more powerful, could this positively impact Friday’s potential(as a 50/50 low, pushing Friday’s system further south and east)? Yeah but it mostly depends on how strong this system gets after it’s well east of us…what it does is it phases with the 50/50 low and then retrogrades almost over us which is what sets the stage for a colder 12/16 system. But the snowfall totals tonight won’t really tell us much on how all that interaction with the 50/50 low is going to develop. But I think all else equal, we’d want more rapid development when this is just south of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: This may end up being a much better event than we all were first thinking. Question Will: If this(tonight’s system)ends up more powerful, could this positively impact Friday’s potential(as a 50/50 low, pushing Friday’s system further south and east)? Probably a much better event than most will have at the end of the week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: NAM is really nice once again for CT, keeps bouncing the jack around but the signal is definitely there. I think I'd trust the high res more in this instance given the dynamic nature of this one but there may be some serious winners and losers if you're on the right/wrong side of a heavy band. Yeah someone will prob get 3” and 10 miles away could get 6-8”. What I like seeing is the mesoscale lift is kind of getting larger in scale…almost merging at times with the synoptic lift which is why we’re seeing larger areas of good QPF on guidance. There will still be winners and losers, but at least the floor is starting to look higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Congrats! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Temps are a bit suss. NEW haven already 36. Will there be wet bulbing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Trend this morning has been to creep higher precip totals this way. Let’s see if that plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah someone will prob get 3” and 10 miles away could get 6-8”. What I like seeing is the mesoscale lift is kind of getting larger in scale…almost merging at times with the synoptic lift which is why we’re seeing larger areas of good QPF on guidance. There will still be winners and losers, but at least the floor is starting to look higher. A little pivot action too as H7 swirls through. Pretty sweet look in CT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 I’d feel good about 1-2 here, but temps may be an issue. Plenty cold now at 27, but I think Cstl front tries to move west of me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah someone will prob get 3” and 10 miles away could get 6-8”. What I like seeing is the mesoscale lift is kind of getting larger in scale…almost merging at times with the synoptic lift which is why we’re seeing larger areas of good QPF on guidance. There will still be winners and losers, but at least the floor is starting to look higher. The 3k illustrates that hit/miss pretty well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 I ask for your support today as I try to work through the inevitable radar hallucinations. Thank you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’d feel good about 1-2 here, but temps may be an issue. Plenty cold now at 27, but I think Cstl front tries to move west of me. 34 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 32.4/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 3K snoozefest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 This is gonna be a fluffbomb with great snow growth. A few towns - areas are going to get double digits from this. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 HRRR trend of north/east and juicy has ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Yeah 3K has been pretty mundane overall. Regardless like many have said, a narrow area is gonna overperform. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sled Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah 3K has been pretty mundane overall. Regardless like many have said, a narrow area is gonna overperform. My house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Flurries flying around out there 27.7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Hoping the expanded QPF showing on models is realized...getting a coating would be a win here. Low of 19 this morning, now 22/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Box says break out the leaf blower type snow! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 About an inch with continuous moderate snow at Stratton in SvT. Meanwhile at my house 15 miles east it’s just cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Flurries just started here in westfield. 28° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 I’ll gladly take 3-4 inches here…I think that’s definitely doable. We appreciate. We enjoy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’ll gladly take 3-4 inches here…I think that’s definitely doable. We appreciate. We enjoy. My 1-2" stripe is locked and loaded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Everything sorta coated up around here from yesterday’s OES. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: I’ll gladly take 3-4 inches here…I think that’s definitely doable. We appreciate. We enjoy. Yea 3-4” there is safe. You may over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea 3-4” there is safe. You may over perform. Maybe we all do this time for us WOR peeps. It’s a good kickoff to the season either way for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea 3-4” there is safe. You may over perform. 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Maybe we all do this time for us WOR peeps. It’s a good kickoff to the season either way for us. I've been writing my final call but my map is a compromise between high res and globals. 3-6 inland with locally higher possible, 1-3 at shore and part of SE CT. Most are between 3-5" inland but we watch for an overperformer in a narrow zone in the state. Where? Most likely northern CT but could be north or south. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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