Go Kart Mozart Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2" to 4" incoming? 2 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 I’ll take a couple inches. Gotta start somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Congrats Ridgefield Alps! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 After all is said and done...there will be nothing left to say or do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 18z NAM with a bit more confluence, but the shortwave looks a bit more compact and vigorous so it's prob going to produce a nice band regardless 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 These are some crazy soundings....there's a reasonable shot at TSSN if these soundings verify....look at how steep the lapse rate is between 850-500 This is near Ginxy's hood for sunday evening 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: These are some crazy soundings....there's a reasonable shot at TSSN if these soundings verify....look at how steep the lapse rate is between 850-500 This is near Ginxy's hood for sunday evening Looks like about 30 miles NW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Norlun? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Yeah that 3km run has an intense norlun-esque trough starting in SE NY/N NJ and then moving south to the Jersey shore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Ray will be so excited Hopefully someone 5 miles away scores 5” from that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Ray will be so excited Hopefully someone 5 miles away scores 5” from that Yeah hes in a bad spot for this one....but for much of the rest of SNE, I think this one could be a fun little first event of the met winter season. As long as the shortwave doesn't get totally crunched, there could be a few surprises. It's a pretty strong/vigorous shortwave tracking in a nice spot for many, so wouldn't be surprised a few heavier bursts of snow. Esp for the southwest half of SNE. But can't rule out a bit further east either. The 3km actually teamed up the synoptic stuff with the OES in SE MA and gave some extra enhancement there....which might be something to watch. Lot of mesoscale variables to keep on eye on in an otherwise smallish event. But the first one of the season is always a little more interesting than if this occurred in late January or something like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: These are some crazy soundings....there's a reasonable shot at TSSN if these soundings verify....look at how steep the lapse rate is between 850-500 This is near Ginxy's hood for sunday evening What we wouldn't give for that mid level on July 4th at Scooter's lake house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: What we wouldn't give for that mid level on July 4th at Scooter's lake house. Scooter will take 5.5 C/Km pulsers and like it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: These are some crazy soundings....there's a reasonable shot at TSSN if these soundings verify....look at how steep the lapse rate is between 850-500 This is near Ginxy's hood for sunday evening Yowser 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah hes in a bad spot for this one....but for much of the rest of SNE, I think this one could be a fun little first event of the met winter season. As long as the shortwave doesn't get totally crunched, there could be a few surprises. It's a pretty strong/vigorous shortwave tracking in a nice spot for many, so wouldn't be surprised a few heavier bursts of snow. Esp for the southwest half of SNE. But can't rule out a bit further east either. The 3km actually teamed up the synoptic stuff with the OES in SE MA and gave some extra enhancement there....which might be something to watch. Lot of mesoscale variables to keep on eye on in an otherwise smallish event. But the first one of the season is always a little more interesting than if this occurred in late January or something like that. Yep, first good measurable is always fun. My one advisory and one warning level bar might be cleared by this time next week lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 18z GFS coming back in a bit more amped. If you recall, the 12z run was the least amplified of the 12z guidance so this is bringing it back toward the model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 18z gfs beefing up and bringing that Norlun sig even closer. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: 18z gfs beefing up and bringing that Norlun sig even closer. Norluns love to creep Northeast in guidance as you get closer in. Creeping , tiptoeing NE 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: 18z gfs beefing up and bringing that Norlun sig even closer. Let’s go! Come to papa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Norluns love to creep Northeast in guidance as you get closer in. Creeping , tiptoeing NE Yes, the one we had in ‘11 was modeled down toward NJ if I recall. It did eventually shift towards CT, but you’re spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Norluns love to creep Northeast in guidance as you get closer in. Creeping , tiptoeing NE Let’s get it from Seymour to Tolland. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Let’s get it from Seymour to North Haven. I agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 11 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yes, the one we had in ‘11 was modeled down toward NJ if I recall. It did eventually shift towards CT, but you’re spot on. It happens quite often in Maine. They start out modeled into or near SE Mass and end up Portland or north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Let’s get it from Seymour to Tolland. As long as East Hartford gets in on it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Norluns love to creep Northeast in guidance as you get closer in. Creeping , tiptoeing NE Hope it tiptoes to northeastern Ct and I might get in on the action. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Ray must love this thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Ray must love this thread 18z GFS QPF map was kind of funny…Ray and TBlizz can have their own pity party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 That run really beefed up the qpf, which is good to see. Makes sense given the sounding Will posted earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Look at that half inch qpf of the south coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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