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Enhanced Event for TX/LA/AR/MS December 13th/14th -- 10% contour for tornadoes


CryHavoc
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Lights flickering nearDFW Airport

Tornado Warning
TXC113-121-439-131515-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0079.221213T1448Z-221213T1515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
848 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Denton County in north central Texas...
  Northeastern Tarrant County in north central Texas...
  Northwestern Dallas County in north central Texas...

* Until 915 AM CST.

* At 847 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Grapevine, moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Lewisville around 905 AM CST.
  Carrollton and Hebron around 910 AM CST.
  The Colony around 915 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Grapevine Lake and Lewisville Lake.

This includes Interstate 35E between mile markers 443 and 452.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3303 9684 3299 9684 3298 9683 3290 9711
      3299 9715 3313 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 1447Z 226DEG 30KT 3296 9707

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Stalley
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15 minutes ago, weatherextreme said:

If this system is producing during the early morning hours wondering what is going to happen come mid day/evening as it moves east.  Towards the enhanced 

Residual nocturnal low level jet contributed this morning with impressive boundary layer wind fields.

Typically you’d expect these threats to wane for a bit during the late morning, but we still have a 40-50 knot low level jet across eastern North Texas as of 15z, along with favorable 0-3km CAPE, enhanced vorticity and strong deep layer shear.

The tornado threat may never really ramp down, but I’d expect intensity and coverage of storms to spike by mid to late afternoon across East Texas. Open warm sector storms could become tornadic supercells and if some guidance is correct, we may see a potent scenario with the squall line breaking into a line of semi discrete supercells from East Texas into northwestern Louisiana 

Even after dark the threat may only worsen, eastward across Louisiana. With relatively slow progression of the cold front, parts of Louisiana and Mississippi may see an “enhanced” threat of tornadoes tomorrow as well. 

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4 minutes ago, Powerball said:

In hindsight, this event was somewhat underhyped for DFW given the poor timing.

 

I also downplayed the early setup. A good example that you don’t need a lot of instability with an anomalous system like this. Timing is virtually irrelevant, if the parameters are in place. 

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north Texas

Quote

Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1051 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northern Lamar County in north central Texas...

* Until 1130 AM CST.

* At 1050 AM CST, a confirmed tornado was located near Sumner, or 12
  miles west of Paris, moving northeast at 65 mph.

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Emergency Management confirmed tornado. A tornado was 
           reported in western Lamar County near Tigertown.

 

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Quote
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 583
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   215 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southern Arkansas
     Western and Northern Louisiana
     East Texas

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until
     1000 PM CST.

   * Primary threats include...
     Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over east Texas are expected to intensify
   through the afternoon and evening as they track into parts of
   Louisiana and southern Arkansas.  Tornadoes, including a risk of
   strong tornadoes, are expected with the most organized storms. 
   Damaging winds and hail are also possible.

 

80/60 probs

 

WW0583 Radar

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