Frog Town Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: The historical odds of a white Christmas in Toledo are 45%. Since 1874 when records began, Winter has actually COOLED in Toledo by 0.6°. The Dec 25-Jan 5 period has warmed 1° since 1874. The frigid 1970s are a dream come true for the crowd that loves to pump climate change into every article. Starting a dataset in 1970 gives an automatic regression line that's going to be more dramatic because the 1970s winters were so abnormally cold. I've seen it time again and it's laughable. It's not a 30 year average. It's not a 100 year average. It's not a period of record average. A more accurate wording would be "since the coldest time in our climate record, we have warm…" Great perspective, and insight, thank you! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Great perspective, and insight, thank you! You're welcome! Xmacis is a climate stat dream. You can find data for any period you'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I see warmth and rain in the days leading up to NYE. Stay firm, hardypalmguy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Might be the wrong place for this banter, but lmao at BAM weather so deadset on an easterly track of the storm. I guess we'll know soon enough, just find it funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chicago916 said: Might be the wrong place for this banter, but lmao at BAM weather so deadset on an easterly track of the storm. I guess we'll know soon enough, just find it funny. they have always been pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 31 minutes ago, WaryWarren said: I see warmth and rain in the days leading up to NYE. Stay firm, hardypalmguy. Makes sense, with a developing +EPO/+PNA pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, Chicago Storm said: they have always been pretty bad. When they were riding the GFS the past few days despite 0 continuity was comical too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 My loop of the past 6 days. I made this because so much happened: the northern blizzard, tornadoes, and the northeast winter storm http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Dec_12_18_2022_GFS_surface_loop1.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Let's compare this in a week... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: Let's compare this in a week... This just sums up how bad semi is at big dogs/blizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: This just sums up how bad semi is at big dogs/blizzards. That does stick out like a sore...well, you know. I wonder what was the storm 3,644 days ago that resulted in blizzard warnings from Arkansas through Ohio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 12 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: That does stick out like a sore...well, you know. I wonder what was the storm 3,644 days ago that resulted in blizzard warnings from Arkansas through Ohio? Our last bliz warning in detroit was ghd1 I think and I forget what yr that was, but I'd assume blizzard warning criteria is diff in ark and Ohio. There needs to be a 78 type storm for dtx to pull the trigger on any type of blizzard warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: That does stick out like a sore...well, you know. I wonder what was the storm 3,644 days ago that resulted in blizzard warnings from Arkansas through Ohio? December 26, 2012 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Our last bliz warning in detroit was ghd1 I think and I forget what yr that was, but I'd assume blizzard warning criteria is diff in ark and Ohio. There needs to be a 78 type storm for dtx to pull the trigger on any type of blizzard warning. Days since the last blizzard warning (issued by gunshy DTX no less) and a big dog are not one in the same. Since that blizzard warning, we have had multiple double digit snowstorms (including a 17" storm) and the snowiest winter on record. It is entirely plausible to have a blizzard warning with a 2" snowfall. I wonder if they would actually properly issue a blizzard warning if it was not a large snowfall (the publics perfection and actual definition of a blizzard are quite different). They did feb 11 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 54 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: Let's compare this in a week... Puerto Rico and Guam will still be no data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Days since the last blizzard warning (issued by gunshy DTX no less) and a big dog are not one in the same. Since that blizzard warning, we have had multiple double digit snowstorms (including a 17" storm) and the snowiest winter on record. It is entirely plausible to have a blizzard warning with a 2" snowfall. I wonder if they would actually properly issue a blizzard warning if it was not a large snowfall (the publics perfection and actual definition of a blizzard are quite different). They did feb 11 2003 Yes it's plausible but dtx would not. We suck, I dont blame them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 22 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Days since the last blizzard warning (issued by gunshy DTX no less) and a big dog are not one in the same. Since that blizzard warning, we have had multiple double digit snowstorms (including a 17" storm) and the snowiest winter on record. It is entirely plausible to have a blizzard warning with a 2" snowfall. I wonder if they would actually properly issue a blizzard warning if it was not a large snowfall (the publics perfection and actual definition of a blizzard are quite different). They did feb 11 2003 With the recent advent of the Snow Squall Warning, there's even less incentive to issue a Blizzard Warning for those short fuse events such as 2/11/03. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 20 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Yes it's plausible but dtx would not. We suck, I dont blame them. Hyperbole aside, a nws has a job to do. Dtx and Grr love advisories. They will issue an advisory when it should be a warning and an advisory when a special statement would suffice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Tonight's GFS/ICON looks strangely familiar to the fantasy xmas eve storm I painted in last year's holiday forecast thread. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Tonight's GFS/ICON looks strangely familiar to the fantasy xmas eve storm I painted in last year's holiday forecast thread. So everyone in Chicago, Milwaukee and MI/OH/IN now know who to blame for their rainer... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 20 hours ago, WaryWarren said: I see warmth and rain in the days leading up to NYE. Stay firm, hardypalmguy. This "pattern change" has turned into another nothingburger. Palm tree weather coming back fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 38 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: This "pattern change" has turned into another nothingburger. Palm tree weather coming back fast. ^^^This will age like milk by the weekend... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I see Hawaii is under a svr tstorm watch right now don't remember seeing that too often 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I see Hawaii is under a svr tstorm watch right now don't remember seeing that too oftenHow does that even work? SPC site shows nothing but then again HI and AK aren't even on their map... literally.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: How does that even work? SPC site shows nothing but then again HI and AK aren't even on their map... literally. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Hawaii issues their own watches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Hoosier, wherever you may be, looks like the atmosphere is going to agree with you and make December better. Look a 25+ page storm in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 23 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Tonight's GFS/ICON looks strangely familiar to the fantasy xmas eve storm I painted in last year's holiday forecast thread. jinx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Hawaii issues their own watches. That woulda been a good job for Broyles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Depending on how the 12z model runs trend for the late week system, this thread might get quite the workout soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 If traffic is going to be at a standstill anyway with the winds for even just a couple inches of snow, might as well make it worth it & get all the snow that was being modeled two days ago, too. But alas, the snow totals are fading hard with every 6hr increment. It sucks to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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