hardypalmguy Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Outside of two weeks this winter, we have had endless palm tree weather. If we didn’t have that two weeks of garbage, I would have said this has been my best winter here ever. Let’s see if we can continue this as we ease into Morch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 ^Winter won't be the problem. The problem will be when that same six day forecast verifies for the middle of April. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 30 minutes ago, Cary67 said: ^Winter won't be the problem. The problem will be when that same six day forecast verifies for the middle of April. We've done that since 2018. We are due for a warm April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 31 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: We've done that since 2018. We are due for a warm April. Hell give me an average April. Seems below has been the norm lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 it’s interesting that the guy who says we’ve had endless palm weather has his cooped up in his basement, instead of outdoors enjoying said palm weather.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 remember events? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 18 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: Domination line running across SE Wisconsin LOL. For us most of that is gonna be from tomorrow's paste job that'll melt in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/5/2023 at 9:50 PM, RogueWaves said: Under "Endangered Species"? Under "Anatomy and Physiology of Frosty the Snowman" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Look at it this way...if we didn't have winters like this, then we wouldn't enjoy the normal winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 hours ago, Frog Town said: Look at it this way...if we didn't have winters like this, then we wouldn't enjoy the normal winters. I think what's making it worse is this is the 2nd one in a row well below average for snow. It'll all even out in the seasons to come but stacking two crappers back to back definitely sucks lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 hours ago, Frog Town said: Look at it this way...if we didn't have winters like this, then we wouldn't enjoy the normal winters. Many tend to complain profusely during average Winters. Hopefully this winter resets that mindset. I know other areas of the sub havent fared as well, but only 3 of the past 10 winters have featured below average snowfall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I think what's making it worse is this is the 2nd one in a row well below average for snow. It'll all even out in the seasons to come but stacking two crappers back to back definitely sucks lol.You sure about that? Climate change says this is the new normal. There might be blips here and there but winters like this (and even warmer) are here to stay. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 18 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: You sure about that? Climate change says this is the new normal. There might be blips here and there but winters like this (and even warmer) are here to stay. It all averages out to...average. It kinda has to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Next season 60 inches or bust. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 11 hours ago, DaveNay said: It all averages out to...average. It kinda has to. Averages will start going down with each new dataset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 he's not wrong, ready for our new lake modulated stl climo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: he's not wrong, ready for our new lake modulated stl climo First freeze avg Thanksgiving and last freeze avg St. Patricks day coming soon. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said: Averages will start going down with each new dataset. Obviously nobody can predict with 100% certainty, but I don't think it's going to play out like that for the most part in our region. I think we're more likely to see something like below, with decades/periods where the snowfall averages are steady or even bump up a bit (largely courtesy of a big season or two), with any more sustained precipitous decade over decade decline potentially not occurring until after most of us are dead. Natural variability still matters... a lot. Just my 2 cents 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 This is an example from the 12z gfs. It seems with storms this winter, the cold sector precip shield almost always has rain outside the heaviest precip band, (even on the nw flanks). I don't recall seeing this in past winters on models, at least no where near as prevalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 14 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: You sure about that? Climate change says this is the new normal. There might be blips here and there but winters like this (and even warmer) are here to stay. Lmao. Trolling to the highest degree. This Winter is absolutely not a new normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: Averages will start going down with each new dataset. Considering snowfall averages are at all times highs for many areas, they very well may start to go down a little bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Considering snowfall averages are at all times highs for many areas, they very well may start to go down a little bit. They are higher now because as average temperatures warm, initially they go up because warmer temperatures allow the atmosphere to hold more moisture. Once we reach the cliff edge though where most storms change from snow to rain, they will fall fast and hard. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 hour ago, buckeye said: This is an example from the 12z gfs. It seems with storms this winter, the cold sector precip shield almost always has rain outside the heaviest precip band, (even on the nw flanks). I don't recall seeing this in past winters on models, at least no where near as prevalent. I like seeing that. I've been watching average temperatures climb since I've been a kid. And we are close to reaching that tipping point where most systems flip from snow to rain. We are right on the cusp. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: They are higher now because as average temperatures warm, initially they go up because warmer temperatures allow the atmosphere to hold more moisture. Once we reach the cliff edge though where most storms change from snow to rain, they will fall fast and hard. You play the trolling game well, I won't step on your toes for that. But be prepared to always be called out with stats. "Once we reach the cliff edge where most storms change from snow to rain", LMAO that's not even how weather works. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 20 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: I like seeing that. I've been watching average temperatures climb since I've been a kid. And we are close to reaching that tipping point where most systems flip from snow to rain. We are right on the cusp. That's a fascinating observation, especially since the 1990s winters were warmer than either the 2000s or the 2010s winters at Milwaukee 1990s- 26.4° 2000s- 25.6° 2010s- 25.8° 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I gotta say, knowing that @michsnowfreakis fairly passive when it comes to trolling, it's funny that it took @hardypalmguy of all people to get him on a roll... *doing my best impersonation of Eddie Murphy's laugh* 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 34 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: You play the trolling game well, I won't step on your toes for that. But be prepared to always be called out with stats. "Once we reach the cliff edge where most storms change from snow to rain", LMAO that's not even how weather works. Dawg, at least you could try and not clutter data with noise from the 1800s. Things become much more clear when you do 50 years of data. Rapid warming. 21.6F to 28F. Yikes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Also spring and fall snowfall has taken a nose dive (down 50%!) and is what you would expect to crash first in a warming climate -- since temperatures are much more marginal in those time periods. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Officially hit 70 today at the airport. Impressive. by the way, @michsnowfreak , the first step is acceptance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said: Dawg, at least you could try and not clutter data with noise from the 1800s. Things become much more clear when you do 50 years of data. Rapid warming. 21.6F to 28F. Yikes. Anybody starting with 1970 or so is being disingenuous. That was basically right in the midst of the coldest years on record, so you're starting with an unusually cold baseline. Either use 30 year averages or the entire period of record. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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