Winter 2022/23 Banter Hangout

[WaryWarren]

Hell, it's even thin guy in shorts weather too.

[Cary67]

For decent snow seasons you need consistent cold air and moisture. Our area has had neither. Those periods where they intersect seem to be trending briefer and less often with each passing year.

[KokomoWX]

I'm not even sure what to rant about at this time.  The whole idea of winter anymore seems foreign these days after several years of miserable performance.  

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

I feel like last year, at about this time, everyone was in the Acceptance stage of grief (Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance).  Then, low and behold, February comes.  

Can't just winter for a month and still call it winter. I thought winter was a 3-4 month package deal? We been getting scammed for a while now. 

[hardypalmguy]

This is ideal winter.  Could be a bit warmer though.

[Chicago Storm]

2 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

This is ideal winter.  Could be a bit warmer though.

there's been better.

[RogueWaves]

8 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

ah, i see we’ve reached that point on the forum haven’t we.

just think, 55 days until met spring arrives.


.

Surprised. No talk of Morch?

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, Frog Town said:

I feel like last year, at about this time, everyone was in the Acceptance stage of grief (Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance).  Then, low and behold, February comes.  

Last January was not bad here. Snowfall ended up slightly below avg but it was also much colder than avg. It was absolutely a winter month, unlike this year. And then yes Feb did her usual thing.

[A-L-E-K]

remember events? 

would settle for anything anomalous at this point

[hardypalmguy]

Surprised. No talk of Morch?

Hoping for a Morch redo.

[hardypalmguy]

Sun angle is starting to increase, ground isn’t frozen, and more top shelf mid winter weather on tap for the next week.

Outside of the week around Christmas, windmill and needle palms would still be alive in Wisconsin.

[A-L-E-K]

6 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Outside of the week around Christmas, windmill and needle palms would still be alive in Wisconsin.

 

makes u think

[King James]

I’ve been at my new place for 5 years now so I have a pretty clear demarcation in my mind when it comes to weather. These last 5 years I’d describe the winters as “late fall weather”. A lot of clouds, drizzle, 2 day freezes, wind, and the temp around 33 degrees…and if it does snow it melts fast and makes everything super muddy.  Just constantly feel like I’m stuck in late November. Really it’s miserable when I think about it. I’ve probably had to shovel less than 10 times since I have been in the new house. Still waiting on a memorable winter out here. 

[michsnowfreak]

14 minutes ago, King James said:

I’ve been at my new place for 5 years now so I have a pretty clear demarcation in my mind when it comes to weather. These last 5 years I’d describe the winters as “late fall weather”. A lot of clouds, drizzle, 2 day freezes, wind, and the temp around 33 degrees…and if it does snow it melts fast and makes everything super muddy.  Just constantly feel like I’m stuck in late November. Really it’s miserable when I think about it. I’ve probably had to shovel less than 10 times since I have been in the new house. Still waiting on a memorable winter out here. 

Aren't you near Chicago?  Last January and February were both colder than average, February 2021 was way colder than avg with near record snow depth in Chicago, and of course who can forget the record cold snap in 2019.  It just seems like when we go through a real shitty time like now, some memories are a little unfair to previous winters lol. 

[King James]

20 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Aren't you near Chicago?  Last January and February were both colder than average, February 2021 was way colder than avg with near record snow depth in Chicago, and of course who can forget the record cold snap in 2019.  It just seems like when we go through a real shitty time like now, some memories are a little unfair to previous winters lol. 

I am, south of Chicago. And I did mention the cold. And then the mud as well

[michsnowfreak]

31 minutes ago, King James said:

I am, south of Chicago. And I did mention the cold. And then the mud as well

Oh OK. Pretty much  Was going by ORD numbers. Which is obviously North of the city I believe. Here, the last 5 snow seasons:
2021-22: slightly above avg
2020-21: slightly above avg
2019-20: avg
2018-19: below avg
2017-18: well above avg.

The last 3 winters as a whole ended up right around climo snowwise in Southeast Michigan. The caveat for the previous 2 winters especially was a lot of snow from late January through February, which can be looked at 2 different ways. On the one hand, since such a high percentage of the snow fell during a 5 week period or so, that means there were several periods of suck throughout the season. On the other hand, had everything been climo appropriately dispersed from November through April, there would not have been a period of such fun.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, King James said:

I’ve been at my new place for 5 years now so I have a pretty clear demarcation in my mind when it comes to weather. These last 5 years I’d describe the winters as “late fall weather”. A lot of clouds, drizzle, 2 day freezes, wind, and the temp around 33 degrees…and if it does snow it melts fast and makes everything super muddy.  Just constantly feel like I’m stuck in late November. Really it’s miserable when I think about it. I’ve probably had to shovel less than 10 times since I have been in the new house. Still waiting on a memorable winter out here. 

Part of the "problem" with biasing so much snow to February in recent years is that the tendency will be for faster melting compared to if that snow happened earlier in the season.  Good luck holding onto snowcover for a month or two at our latitude if you're starting it in February.  Usually not going to happen.

[Snowstorms]

I don't think snow is a big issue. It can still snow with marginal temperatures and 2019-20 was a perfect example of that. I think the bigger concern is the warm winters we keep seeing year after year. For example, both Toronto and NYC have warmed 3-5F in the last 100 years. I'm not sure about Chicago or Detroit but I'm sure they've both warmed up too.  

A 2 or 3 week cold snap doesn't or shouldn't undermine the insanely above average temperatures outside of those 2-3 weeks. A month of winter with 2 months of extended Fall like conditions is not normal by any means. Winter is, for most of us, 3-4 months long. I think it's time to accept seeing one cold winter in a slew of warm winters may become the new norm. Unless this is just a cycle and it'll break off at some point. 

[michsnowfreak]

46 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I don't think snow is a big issue. It can still snow with marginal temperatures and 2019-20 was a perfect example of that. I think the bigger concern is the warm winters we keep seeing year after year. For example, both Toronto and NYC have warmed 3-5F in the last 100 years. I'm not sure about Chicago or Detroit but I'm sure they've both warmed up too.  

A 2 or 3 week cold snap doesn't or shouldn't undermine the insanely above average temperatures outside of those 2-3 weeks. A month of winter with 2 months of extended Fall like conditions is not normal by any means. Winter is, for most of us, 3-4 months long. I think it's time to accept seeing one cold winter in a slew of warm winters may become the new norm. Unless this is just a cycle and it'll break off at some point. 

That's a very valid point about snow. But also, if you're cold and not getting a lot of snow, people often still refer to it is mild. The last 2 years were not mild winters in the Midwest.

 Regarding warming over the last 100 years, it depends on location but clearly the East Coast is warming more than the lower Midwest. In fact, the lower Great Lakes show minimal warming although I suspect Chicago's cooling trend is due to location change.

Detroit warmed 0.9°
Cleveland warmed 0.6°
Toledo stayed exactly the same
Columbus warmed 0.1°
Indianapolis cooled 0.1°
Chicago cooled 1.3°
Milwaukee warmed 2.0°
Minneapolis warmed 2.6°
New york city warmed 3.2°
Boston warmed 2.6°
Buffalo warmed 1.5°
Wash DC warmed 2.8°
Burlington VT warmed 4.4°
 

[Hoosier]

39 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I don't think snow is a big issue. It can still snow with marginal temperatures and 2019-20 was a perfect example of that. I think the bigger concern is the warm winters we keep seeing year after year. For example, both Toronto and NYC have warmed 3-5F in the last 100 years. I'm not sure about Chicago or Detroit but I'm sure they've both warmed up too.  

A 2 or 3 week cold snap doesn't or shouldn't undermine the insanely above average temperatures outside of those 2-3 weeks. A month of winter with 2 months of extended Fall like conditions is not normal by any means. Winter is, for most of us, 3-4 months long. I think it's time to accept seeing one cold winter in a slew of warm winters may become the new norm. Unless this is just a cycle and it'll break off at some point. 

I disagree with this a little bit.  Whether you meant to or not, your post is implying that we ought to expect consistent winter conditions over 3-4 months.  It's just not the case where most of us live, and it really has never been.  There's almost always thaws in winter, and sometimes they have been pretty prolonged in distant years past.  

We can argue whether the thaws have become more intense/longer lasting over time.

[michsnowfreak]

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I disagree with this a little bit.  Whether you meant to or not, your post is implying that we ought to expect consistent winter conditions over 3-4 months.  It's just not the case where most of us live, and it really has never been.  There's almost always thaws in winter, and sometimes they have been pretty prolonged in distant years past.  

We can argue whether the thaws have become more intense/longer lasting over time.

Thaws have always been a part of Winter. I mean you cannot like them, what winter lover does, but to act like Winter used to be some nonstop land of cold snow and ice and it's now only a brief spit of snow here and there it's completely untrue.  Not saying anyone literally says that here but sometimes you get that vibe from certain people and it's laughable because it's so untrue.

[Cary67]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Aren't you near Chicago?  Last January and February were both colder than average, February 2021 was way colder than avg with near record snow depth in Chicago, and of course who can forget the record cold snap in 2019.  It just seems like when we go through a real shitty time like now, some memories are a little unfair to previous winters lol. 

Just NW of ORD toward RFD and MKE and a lot of southern WI did poorly snowfall wise last year. Chicago and just SE over towards DTW did well in a relatively short period of time. Some of it LES bail out for Chicago

[Hoosier]

16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thaws have always been a part of Winter. I mean you cannot like them, what winter lover does, but to act like Winter used to be some nonstop land of cold snow and ice and it's now only a brief spit of snow here and there it's completely untrue.  Not saying anyone literally says that here but sometimes you get that vibe from certain people and it's laughable because it's so untrue.

Obviously there are a lot of ways to look at mild weather/thaws, but it would be interesting to run a trend analysis on the number of days with 40+ degree highs and 50+ degree highs in DJF.  I kind of suspect there would be more of an increase in December and not so much in January/February, but I'm just guessing.

[cyclone77]

2 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Just NW of ORD toward RFD and MKE and a lot of southern WI did poorly snowfall wise last year. Chicago and just SE over towards DTW did well in a relatively short period of time. Some of it LES bail out for Chicago

Yeah our areas were just outside of the GHD3 storm, which was quite heartbreaking at the time lol.  

[mississaugasnow]

19 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

That's a very valid point about snow. But also, if you're cold and not getting a lot of snow, people often still refer to it is mild. The last 2 years were not mild winters in the Midwest.

 Regarding warming over the last 100 years, it depends on location but clearly the East Coast is warming more than the lower Midwest. In fact, the lower Great Lakes show minimal warming although I suspect Chicago's cooling trend is due to location change.

Detroit warmed 0.9°
Cleveland warmed 0.6°
Toledo stayed exactly the same
Columbus warmed 0.1°
Indianapolis cooled 0.1°
Chicago cooled 1.3°
Milwaukee warmed 2.0°
Minneapolis warmed 2.6°
New york city warmed 3.2°
Boston warmed 2.6°
Buffalo warmed 1.5°
Wash DC warmed 2.8°
Burlington VT warmed 4.4°
 

Thats interesting. I wonder why from pretty much Southern Ontario eastward has warmed, skips Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and resumes again in Wisconsin and Minnesota. 

[mississaugasnow]

On 1/5/2023 at 4:19 PM, hardypalmguy said:

This is ideal winter.  Could be a bit warmer though.

when do you put your palms back out? My banana and windmill palm are inside but I was able to keep them out until mid November. 

[Chicago916]

We're definitely going to get a perfect low track next week for a snowstorm without any cold air (for Chicago)

[cyclone77]

2 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

We're definitely going to get a perfect low track next week for a snowstorm without any cold air (for Chicago)

Looks like a road salt washer.

[roardog]

The new England and mid Atlantic forums are getting some epic meltdowns now. lol

[Hoosier]

22 minutes ago, roardog said:

The new England and mid Atlantic forums are getting some epic meltdowns now. lol

Most of the big cities out there have had 0 snow so far at the official observation sites.  The one exception is Boston, but they've only had 1.2".  Even a place like Worcester is way in the hole.