steve23guy Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Well In beloit we just got bumped from 1-3 to 3-6 per accuweather crap . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 FXUS63 KMKX 082150 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 350 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2022 .SHORT TERM... (Issued 350 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2022) Tonight through Friday night: The main forecast changes: 1) delayed the arrival of snowfall across east-central Wisconsin where drier air will put up a fight, 2) shifted the main axis of snow about 50 to 100 miles south, 3) expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to the south and east, and 4) used 10th-90th percentile for snowfall totals online. More details below! The main focus tonight through Friday night is on the banded area of moderate to heavy snow expected to lift through southern Wisconsin late tonight through approximately mid-day Friday. While the wave is deamplifying as it approaches the area, there is still an overabundance of large scale ascent moving through the area. With WAA nosing in ahead of the shortwave, a transient area of 850-700mb frontogenesis also sharpens across the area, bringing a more focused area for localized ascent. The 12Z HREF does show the potential (20-40% chance) we could see some embedded areas within the band where snowfall rates could approach 1 inch per hour. Thus, as the this band moves through expect snowfall rates to pick up and visibilities to become sharply reduced. Opted to go with 10th-90th percentile for snowfall, as it handled the uncertainty across our northern counties and lakeshore counties well, while adding in some potential for locally higher amounts where the banded area of snowfall tracks. Where does this band track? Well, it will be highly dependent on how the drier air currently over the region and upstream of the area holds on. High-res models really limit the higher QPF and snowfall potential across Marquette/Green Lake and portions of east-central Wisconsin given the easterly winds advecting in drier air from the southern extent of high pressure up near the Hudson Bay. This drier mid-level air was sampled well by the 12z soundings from KAPX and KDTX. Thus, the latest RAP/HRRR keep the better chances for accumulating snow within the banded feature roughly along and south of I-90/I-94. Whereas the NAM/GFS do continue to show some potential for better QPF and snowfall up into central Wisconsin. Thus, did keep the original Winter Weather Advisory as is, and added counties to the south and southeast to account for the shift to the southeast with the high- res guidance. As for p-types, we could still see some freezing rain develop ahead of the banded area of snow late tonight. As the mid-level dry air erodes, soundings do show some potential for temperature aloft to remain above freezing briefly while surface temperatures hover around freezing. The NBM v4.1 probabilities support the potential for freezing rain early on, thus have continued to include mentions in the forecast. Otherwise, once the band of snow moves in, even along Lake Michigan, dynamical cooling and robust forcing along the band of frontogenesis will help keep precipitation in the form of snow. Due to the pronounced lift, did run the weather type forecast using surface wet-bulb temperatures of 35 for the cutoff for snow mentions. As easterly winds continue throughout the day and temperatures warm near Lake Michigan, this will help favor a transition over to rain/snow or rain during the afternoon hours. Then as the banded area of snow moves east, exiting over Lake Michigan and weakening, we will lose cloud ice and should see a transition over to drizzle or freezing drizzle. Surface temperatures will be critical Friday night into Saturday, as freezing drizzle may linger and lead to some impacts given the lingering 850mb WAA stream up into the area. Anderson 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 hour ago, steve23guy said: Well In beloit we just got bumped from 1-3 to 3-6 per accuweather crap . Waiting for my bump to .3 to .6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 I’m in Sioux Falls SD for work and I’ve never seen a deathband like this. The snowflakes are half dollar size or larger. Madness 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 The falls look nice. https://www.keloland.com/weather/live-cameras/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Sioux Falls got .27 last hour all snow, even at 8:1 that's still over 2" per hour. This is probably going to be a solid overperformer across iowa and wherever it passes north/near Chicago before it dies crossing Michigan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Thundersnow! Multiple flashes and long rumbles. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: Sioux Falls got .27 last hour all snow, even at 8:1 that's still over 2" per hour. This is probably going to be a solid overperformer across iowa and wherever it passes north/near Chicago before it dies crossing Michigan. KFSD 090156Z 09007KT 1/2SM SN FG VV008 00/M02 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP219 SNINCR 2/2 P0027 T00001017 RVRNO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Duration won’t be long but this is going to be a memorable snow event for me just from the intensity. Interstate 90 probably isn’t very fun right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 December snow...crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: KFSD 090156Z 09007KT 1/2SM SN FG VV008 00/M02 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP219 SNINCR 2/2 P0027 T00001017 RVRNO KFSD 090256Z COR 09009KT 1/2SM SN FG VV005 01/M01 A3010 RMK AO2 SLP213 SNINCR 4/6 P0019 60050 I3002 T00111011 58013 RVRNO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 37 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: That seems worthy of a snow squall warning to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 13 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: That seems worthy of a snow squall warning to me. Not really much wind to warrant a squall warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Rain has commenced here with a temp of 33. Hoping for a good half inch out of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Teaser storm on track. Prairie Du Chen looks like the lollipop zone. Looking for some big wet flakes to enhance my holiday spirit today as I hit the Loop this evening for some dinner and downtown light gazing. December ambiance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Latest HRRR run backing off on totals for northern burbs. Still think a slushy 1-2" on grass with a sloppy mix possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND ROCKFORD HVY RAIN 36 33 89 E10G22 Heavy Rain and still 36 at Rockford. May not be a good sign for the turnover to Heavy Wet Snow crowd, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: bust mid season form. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 29 minutes ago, Baum said: 30 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: bust mid season form they can smell it on the LOT AVN update: WITH AS LITTLE AS ONE DEGREE POTENTIALLY BEING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SNOW OCCURRING OR PRECIPITATION REMAINING AS ALL RAIN, OR BETWEEN SEEING A ROBUST, ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATING WITHIN A MOSTLY RAIN/SNOW MIX, SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES, TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVERS, AND ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY IMPACTS IS LOW. ground truth update: A mix of snow/sleet/flakeage IMBY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 A heavy wet mix over here in Poplar Grove. Trying to become all snow, but just not quite making it there. Very slippery, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Picked up 0.83" here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Flipped over and ripping. Front end wasted on rain. 1-2" looks in play. On the grassy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Flip over to wet snow mixed with rain. Big clumps starring to accumulate on driveway. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 mchenry co revenge winter 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Expecting only rain here at the lakefront in Kenosha, but licking my livingroom window anyway. Maybe it’ll help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 getting some nice mood aggregates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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