Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 yummy we may hit some of the moisture from these storms (model timeframe adjustments) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 12 hours ago, codfishsnowman said: Boy is this out there...my half and half will be out of code before this happens My milk expires Dec 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 I feel this thread is still relevant… And altho the morphology has changed. 13.14.15 is still in play and that is the system for later next week. Part of that morphology is that it wound up in the plains first but it’s extension east to eventually impact New England -possibly- is all part of the same super structure /risk assessing. I wrote the following this morning in the other thread but I think it’s relevant here : …after spending a few moments observing the EPS and GEFS behavior across the eastern and northeastern pacific …downstream throughout North America, specifically pertaining to the 12th through 20th, a fairly coherent difference leaps out for me. It’s the handling over the EPO domain region. That difference is having a fairly significant instructional impact on how the pattern’s synoptic construct orients (crucially) itself downstream. The EPO is less significantly in the negative EPO phase state. Downstream over the continent it becomes a “seesaw” difference in forcing. The GEFs being stronger in the negative EPO phase, bottoms out the heights more in the southwest lat/lons; which is actually not a bad fit within its own reasoning. That would concomitantly lift the westerlies in latitude over eastern North America. The Pacific handling is still an issue here ladies and gentlemen… At the same time, between day’s 7 through 11… the GEFs has taken to dispersing the negative NAO phase considerably - more quickly or more obviously than the EPO. It seems the GFS ‘species’ has been doing this with the NAO off and on - poor continuity - over the last week. I’m not sure I trust that part of this Both ensemble means carry a storm that winds up in the Plains between the 13th and 14th through the east and or SE Canada between the 15th and the 16th, but the upstream handling at large scales, and how it relays from the Pacific over North America , continues to be a problem, and the forcing mechanisms are critical to eventual system type/impacts. The GEF like hemisphere would promote more of a Great Lakes primary with only weak secondary … if only there because of boundary layer resistance in having cold air that is residually wedged east of Appalachia …etc. The EPO on the other hand… Having a flatter negative EPO digs less into southwest which lowers the heights over eastern North America. But while also maintaining a slightly more robust negative NAO structure out in time everything evolves further south and in fact there are a lot of EPO members, toward the 15th, like Scott was saying they end up with a pretty stem wound secondary/Miller B result. So either way there’s likely to be a significant winter storm affecting the 13th through the 17th of the month from the Plains to the north eastern US and we’re still in the process of figuring out exactly what storm type that will be and where. The two primary ensemble clusters that are typically used, their differences are crucially meaningful as to how all that lays out 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 On 12/8/2022 at 5:42 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: yummy we may hit some of the moisture from these storms (model timeframe adjustments) It actually occurred to me yesterday that the 13.14.15 event I was covering is actually the same event as this one… We were honing the same aspects; it’s just the morphology of how this has evolved has made the whole of it a 3 to 4 day ordeal. It starts in the Plains, ~ 4 days from now … and it’s a tumbler that takes thru the 17th to clear the EC. Starting to remind me a little bit of that 1996 January event; that was a tumbler that rolled along and eventually ignited the big storm on the East Coast. I’m not saying that’s an analog. I’m just saying the behavior We both have threads for either end of this pig is what it amounts to 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Updating ... It occurred to me yesterday that the effort put out by "Stormchaserchuck1" for the 15th-17th and this one are in fact the same coverage. The origin of the storm genesis - if so ... albeit appearing more likely, despite the long lead - is born of the same synoptic. The 13th and 14th sees a strong Pacific inject over the continent in the west, that quickly maxes in the high Plains.... But the instructional nature of the blocking that's both new EPO and existing well-modeled -NAO is really quite preventative for polarward migration...so the coiled up mechanics et al are being corrected S. This is quite obviously more so apparent in the recent GFS runs, but as others have noted... the EPS and GEFs have been steadily matriculating new members into a Miller B commitment toward the end of this next week, which is the 15th - 17th window. So a bit confusing, but...this was an early risk assessment originally...appearing successful. As far as how all this unfolds along the EC/New England coasts more specifically...that is still D7.8 from now, so we unfortunately can't really be too confident... However, I feel this system is well above the "model-error-climate" and probably does perform in some fashion. As we move forward, the "correction vector" is still S...although the recent GFS operational runs may have actually gone about as far S as this can go. There is a limit to that vector, based upon the fact that the SE ridge/La Nina foot print hemisphere is still lurking. It would be more likely from this point forward, that the GFS would tend to start smearing the tumbler trough into a flatter system with possible multi-wave event....if the suppression were to continue exertion. That's supposition, however. Both the Euro and Canadian have room to correct further. The EPS did appear to collect additional members into the Miller B envelope, but the signal was no improved over the 12z prior run. Plenty of time... So long as the hemispheric mass-field are modeled and that persists, I don't really imagine a scenario where the total tropospheric manifold of forcing with this would end up N of the 45th parallel ...while west of 80W. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It actually occurred to me yesterday that the 13.14.15 event I was covering is actually the same event as this one… We were honing the same aspects; it’s just the morphology of how this has evolved has made the whole of it a 3 to 4 day ordeal. It starts in the Plains, ~ 4 days from now … and it’s a tumbler that takes thru the 17th to clear the EC. Starting to remind me a little bit of that 1996 January event; that was a tumbler that rolled along and eventually ignited the big storm on the East Coast. I’m not saying that’s an analog. I’m just saying the behavior We both have threads for either end of this pig is what it amounts to That was a Miller A that came out of the GOM.....not sure I agree.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That was a Miller A that came out of the GOM.....not sure I agree.... Hence “… I’m not saying that’s an analog… “ lol. no but I was speaking to the 500/ ML evolution … The 7am analysis on Jan 7 1996 reminds me somewhat of the 00Z GFS’ 174 hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hence “… I’m not saying that’s an analog… “ lol. no but I was speaking to the 500/ ML evolution … The 7am analysis on Jan 7 1996 reminds me somewhat of the 00Z GFS’ 174 hour. Gotcha. Figured I was missing something...so you don't mean similar in terms of evolution, but rather the similarity with respect to that particular point in the respective lifecycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gotcha. Figured I was missing something...so you don't mean similar in terms of evolution, but rather the similarity with respect to that particular point in the respective lifecycles. Yeah my bad. I coulda been more clear in that regard. It was probably confusing just bringing it up at all but I happen to find things like that interesting, how you can do cut outs and compare pieces to other event metrics …as much as you can do wholes? A fascination perhaps only understood in the mind of the disturbed nerd ha ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 It’s very possible we could see a plains blizzard and a New England blizzard from the same storm, it doesn’t happen often but when we get blocking of this magnitude storms can take unusual tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, George001 said: It’s very possible we could see a plains blizzard and a New England blizzard from the same storm, it doesn’t happen often but when we get blocking of this magnitude storms can take unusual tracks. I feel as though its a 50/50 proposition that we are all buried alive 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Not to be a word fascist but don’t drop words like blizzard in either case. I realize this is a public Internet depot… But that doesn’t mean it has to be a cartoon starring ‘Ralph Phillips’ daydreams, either. For some of us we actually care about substantive analysis and adult reasoning. Ha Seriously… At this range a ‘significant winter storm in the plains and in the east from the same system’ would’ve been plenty sufficient and doesn’t have to press every event to the ceiling of what’s imaginatively possible… 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not to be a word fascist but don’t drop words like blizzard in either case. I realize this is a public Internet depot… But that doesn’t mean it Hass to be a cartoon, either. For some of us we actually care about substantive analysis and adult reasoning. Ha Seriously… At this range a ‘significant winter storm in the plains and in the east from the same system’ would’ve been plenty sufficient and doesn’t have to press every event to the ceiling of what’s imaginatively possible… Yea, you can always drop the "B" bomb once it is clear within a day or two...going there at one week lead is inviting large error...especially in a situation that has and continues to be in such flux. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 keep in mind that the -NAO blocking is also decaying during the timeframe for the late-week storm, which is also a precursor to some of our largest events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 ...At least you have a good portion of the month covered in your thread title. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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