RedSky Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Not liking the 18z GFS in regards to next week or anything for that matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 If this month has a theme it's the Great Lakes low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, RedSky said: Not liking the 18z GFS in regards to next week or anything for that matter. ?? GFS made improvements letting the stj sw escape and not plowing the trof into the western US like prior runs. Its the op tho but still improved. Sets up better for later near Christmas imho just based verbatim on the op. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ?? GFS made improvements letting the stj sw escape and not plowing the trof into the western US like prior runs. Its the op tho but still improved. Sets up better for later near Christmas imho just based verbatim on the op. 18z GFS certainly did make a move towards the 12z CMC solution. 12z GFS and CMC were off oh about 850 miles now they are off by about 145 miles LOL. There is significant potential Dec. 23rd from what I can see. It's becoming clear to me looking over the models over the last week until today is that the storm coming Wednesday to late Friday is the pattern changer then we look to get hit good the weekend of Christmas December 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, Kevin Reilly said: 18z GFS certainly did make a move towards the 12z CMC solution. 12z GFS and CMC were off oh about 850 miles now they are off by about 145 miles LOL. There is significant potential Dec. 23rd from what I can see. It's becoming clear to me looking over the models over the last week until today is that the storm coming Wednesday to late Friday is the pattern changer then we look to get hit good the weekend of Christmas December 23rd. So close let run finish. Gefs will have some hits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 Leaves stj sw out in NM this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 As expected, GEFS made marked improvement out west with the pna axis as well as a better coastal signature. So the op can suck an avocado. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Op's are superior however and ECM&GFS are a great lakes low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 DT's first guess out and the line is north of me for white rain, relieved. Lehigh Valley 1-3" Jim Thorpe does well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Op's are superior however and ECM&GFS are a great lakes low Well, we have more than a week to track so it will change numerous times. As for the GL low, very rarely do we get a winter wx event without that feature. It is common. We dont see it with clippers of course...but when was the last time we had a legit Alberta Clipper? I seriously cannot remember. They are a thing of lore these days that we tell our kids and grandkids about. If you have the 1st KU NE winter storm book, a good majority of those had the GL low. That feature doesnt always spell gloom and doom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Well, we have more than a week to track so it will change numerous times. As for the GL low, very rarely do we get a winter wx event without that feature. It is common. We dont see it with clippers of course...but when was the last time we had a legit Alberta Clipper? I seriously cannot remember. They are a thing of lore these days that we tell our kids and grandkids about. If you have the 1st KU NE winter storm book, a good majority of those had the GL low. That feature doesnt always spell gloom and doom. When they stay the primary you flusha the toilet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 0z NAM says no snow for you. Even in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, RedSky said: DT's first guess out and the line is north of me for white rain, relieved. Lehigh Valley 1-3" Jim Thorpe does well He's not honking at all and has any snow more N than I thought. We're just innocent bystanders taking notes... 29F/clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 47 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: 0z NAM says no snow for you. Even in the Poconos. Nam says up to 5" on the clown map -- 1-2" positive snow depth on the ground. A WWA should be issued tomorrow for 2-4 in for Thursday to be on the safe side. No biggie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Trading places the CMC went for the lakes and the GFS a coastal scraper lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Another chilly day today before clouds increase and snow and or sleet begin right after rush hour tomorrow morning. The NWS has a Winter Weather Advisory up for the area...but still some differences in forecasted snow totals. Best bet is up to 1" of snow....with more the further north and west you go. We should then see a quick change over to a wind swept heavy rain by early afternoon. Stay tuned for later updates. The record high for today is 65.3 degrees from 2015. The record low is the 4 above zero from 1989. Daily rain record is 2.06" from 1897. Daily snow record is the 8.7" that fell today in 1917. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Winter Weather Advisories for most of us. We take and enjoy before the flood warnings are issued. 30F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 No changes on the 12z NAM (not that we were expecting any). Just a quick period of blink-and-you-miss-it frozen, we rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 No changes on the 12z NAM (not that we were expecting any). Just a quick period of blink-and-you-miss-it frozen, we rain.Bit colder for borderline areas. Brings about 1” of snow to LV and poconos followed by up to an 1” of sleet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Good luck to those in the NW areas but this event is a nothing burger around 95, if not for timing around the morning rush, I doubt we even see the WWA's. Looking long term...I fail to see how this 500 MB look results in a pre-christmas cutter, but if the last few years have shown us anything, it's that if there's a will there's a way... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 That GFS won’t budge . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 GFS casually spitting like what? 2-8in of Snow/slop for southern LV pushing north lmfao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Brine guys are out and about, really don't think it's necessary. But hey, may give these guys some OT...good for them. 38F/sunny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Christmas is going to be frigged no matter what but the chances of significant snowfall are slipping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 22 minutes ago, RedSky said: Christmas is going to be frigged no matter what but the chances of significant snowfall are slipping. A couple snow showers, moderate flurries or a squall to cover the ground along w/the cold is all we need. Just having a no blow torch Christmas is a victory in itself... 38F/Cloudy Accuweather: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 31 minutes ago, RedSky said: Christmas is going to be frigid no matter what and the chances of our first snowfall are increasing. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: FYP New England region is in the game still but we need to win the last four games and need all kinds of help. Our best hope looking at the ECM ensembles is some kind of backlash snow deal like December 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 40 minutes ago, RedSky said: New England region is in the game still but we need to win the last four games and need all kinds of help. Our best hope looking at the ECM ensembles is some kind of backlash snow deal like December 2002 ? The eps mean is damn near perfect for the first measurable of the season for many. Eta: we're talking about the same system dec 22-23 yes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ? The eps mean is damn near perfect for the first measurable of the season for many. Eta: we're talking about the same system dec 22-23 yes? I was thinking the same thing. That eps is as close to perfect as u can get for 8 days out... what's the saying. The big ones are sniffed.... ahhh nevermind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ? The eps mean is damn near perfect for the first measurable of the season for many. Eta: we're talking about the same system dec 22-23 yes? Its a late developing Miller B on the EPS, and nada with the GEM and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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