Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 Whatever happens tomorrow night is a very good indicator of what happens late week imho. All guidance that is snowy tomorrow are snowy late week and vice versa. Just something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Whatever happens tomorrow night is a very good indicator of what happens late week imho. All guidance that is snowy tomorrow are snowy late week and vice versa. Just something to watch If the gfs clowns the euro on these next 2 systems it’s time to move on to spring. What a shit topping to this shit sundae winter that would be. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 15 minutes ago, The Iceman said: If the gfs clowns the euro on these next 2 systems it’s time to move on to spring. What a shit topping to this shit sundae winter that would be. That would also show that everyone who has been ridiculing the GFS all winter for being stubborn and not snowy is seeing this model's upgrades through snow covered glasses. The GFS may very well have become the new King. We just won't know for another couple of weeks, but it sure seems that way right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 6z EPS mean upped snowfall for late week to 7.5" here....some of that may include the Monday night event. Has the >3" probability around 75% here. Encouraging for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3k NAM looking a little better for some frozen down here tomorrow than 12k. Seems a 20 mile jog north or south will make a big difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 Hr³ most aggressive with the cold and snow depth change for tomorrow night fwiw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 6z EC the 2/28 storm is one of those split the difference things vs the GFS 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 Fv3 came in colder tomorrow night. Great trends for this one so far: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 I can not explain enough how much I would love a traditional 4-6in snowfall in Bethlehem PA for the 2nd storm, and I will leave this winter content Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 WRFs are colder and snowier as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 Amazing to see how we appear to be setting up to do the backloaded thing. Frozen tomorrow, significant frozen threat Friday for a chunk of this sub, and after the 8th the pattern is even more promising with the cold boundary established to our South. March is obviously the new January. April should be rockin at this rate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: WRFs are colder and snowier as well: over-initializing current conditions (relative to really bad Pacific atm) for a long time now they are weak models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: over-initializing current conditions (relative to really bad Pacific atm) for a long time now they are weak models Agreed. The wrfs are the weakest of all our mesos....but you can gather some general ideas from them. Verbatim? Not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Yesterday was only our 8th sub freezing day of the winter with a high of only 31.2. Typically through yesterday we would have seen 22 such days already this winter. This underscores how unusually warm this winter season has been across the area! Back to well above normal temps again today with sun returning and highs into the low 50's. Chillier tomorrow with some mixed precipitation arriving late in the day. Here in Chester County it will be mainly some sleet changing to rain before much accumulation. However, you would only have to go north by around 20 miles or so toward the Lehigh Valley to see some accumulating snow and sleet tomorrow evening. Milder again Tuesday through Thursday before another potential winter event may effect us by Friday into next Saturday. Records for today: High 70 (1930) / Low 6 below (1914) / Precipitation 1.83" (1929) / Snow 8" (2010). That 2 day storm in February 2010 was the last of 3 major snowstorms that month with 13.5" falling from that storm. That followed the 18.3" that fell on the 5th/6th and the 26.8" on the 9th/10th. We ended the month with 62.8" of snow - the 2nd greatest monthly total behind only the 69.8" that fell in February 1899. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 ICON absolutely destroys us Friday. Much improved longer duration look with a battle between HP and overunning LP. If this is how we r morphing this I'm fine with that. Less amped would be better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 12z GFS cherry-picked a spot in Philly, as well as Camden, Burlington, and Gloucester Counties in Jersey to get some luvin' for 2/28. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Love how tomorrow night is trending colder. I just made my first call on my page, 1-3” for the Lehigh Valley…I might have to increase that a little bit if these trends continue! Also starting to get mildly excited about Friday even though I’m scheduled (for now) to drive to and from Princeton that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Guess we’ll be watching dew points tomorrow since it appears we start out as liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 GFS for late week is either leading the way or on an island by itself. Realistically the final answer likely lies between the GFS and Euro....which has also ticked N last 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS for late week is either leading the way or on an island by itself. Realistically the final answer likely lies between the GFS and Euro....which has also ticked N last 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 I mean that would be a huge win for new GFS. It’s been pretty much saying the same thing for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 GFS still ignoring SE for the 3/4 - 3/5 storm although it looks like it's slower from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Tomorrow PM will be interesting you can see the 850mb temps only briefly for a couple hours (warmest point below) go over 0c but there is that pesky 925mb temp that will cause the sleet potential for many in the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Canadian splits the difference between the Euro and GFS and brings some more down this way for the 2/28 storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Canadian for late week storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Newman said: Canadian for late week storm 0z vs 12z Check out the hp 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 And for 3/4 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 GFS isn't going to win this right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 No room left for the Canadian to go north this would be worse then losing the super bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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