JTA66 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 65F at 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 63F High was 64F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 My Upper Darby sister texted that she is at 70 there now. I am at 64 so delayed but not denied. A NBC10 met who popped in on KYW earlier noted that there was some easterly wind component today that had been keeping some of the temps down so far (particularly at the shore), but the 70s were definitely going down in the Delmarva. Missed who it was. EDIT - after missing 2 more reports I finally caught which met was reporting into KYW this afternoon - Michelle Rotella. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Backdoor front from our very chilly ocean temps of 44 degrees working it's magic today with low 40's down in Sea Isle City while 64 degrees back at Chester County Airport. A current 10 degree spread between NE Chesco and SW Chesco at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 18z GFS and ens were as good as I've seen the entire winter. Strong signal emerging around the Ides of March as well. Guys, I'm dead serious when I say this is far from over. LFG! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z GFS and ens were as good as I've seen the entire winter. Strong signal emerging around the Ides of March as well. Guys, I'm dead serious when I say this is far from over. LFG! AS I keeping saying "winter is dead Jim." The positive growth snow on the ground of these models is a few inches so what? If we get it, it will be gone in a few days or even hours with no long sustaining cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 11 minutes ago, Albedoman said: AS I keeping saying "winter is dead Jim." The positive growth snow on the ground of these models is a few inches so what? If we get it, it will be gone in a few days or even hours with no long sustaining cold. These are ensembles. They don't show "positive growth snow". That ens mean is smoothed and is quite impressive tbh. Some monster hits among the individual members. Euro weeklies, CFS, and GFSx all have the same pattern progression and idea as we near the Ides. Couldn't care less if it melts in a day or hours. That is a realistic expectation given the calendar. I would enjoy every flake as it falls. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: These are ensembles. They don't show "positive growth snow". That ens mean is smoothed and is quite impressive tbh. Some monster hits among the individual members. Euro weeklies, CFS, and GFSx all have the same pattern progression and idea as we near the Ides. Couldn't care less if it melts in a day or hours. That is a realistic expectation given the calendar. I would enjoy every flake as it falls. Agreed. Just would be nice to see some real winter outside of a couple days at Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 NAMs came N for Saturday. 12k has coating -2" type deal extreme SE PA. 3k is mood flakes but a jucier jump N vs 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAMs came N for Saturday. 12k has coating -2" type deal extreme SE PA. 3k is mood flakes but a jucier jump N vs 18z. Rgem is dry as a bone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Canadian a slizzard next week, gfs all snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 First time all winter euro is making a south move for the big one, actually they ALL have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 From a great laker to crushed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 20 minutes ago, RedSky said: From a great laker to crushed lol I feel a little better but still not good yet in this “winter.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, mattinpa said: I feel a little better but still not good yet in this “winter.” Not feeling any better typically huge moves like this mean suppression depression but this year who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 the only positive aspect at this time is that the 0Z CMC finally shows a Ohio/TN valley Low heading to the coast instead of screaming into the Great lakes this year. Finally, a single model run that both the CMC and GFS finally agree 6 days out was somewhat a plus too. Lets hope it says this way in the next 72 hours. I feel somewhat hopeful but we have burned before baby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Under 200hrs now. 8 days out. 6z GFS looks good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 The appearance of the pattern evolution wrt the 50/50 low and -NAO dipole around March 3-5 continues to develop among the various pieces of guidance. There are now several ind ens members beginning to honk and the ops are starting to see the looks up top and reflect down into the lower 48. Again, the threat(s) as we moving thru March are real and starting to increase. In like a lion: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, Duca892 said: Under 200hrs now. 8 days out. 6z GFS looks good? You've been patient so I have a seat for you on the backloaded bandwagon. Be sure to watch your step boarding and buckle up when you find your seat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Hey at this point I’m just happy something has survived until under 200hrs. I’m sure we have had others before this winter but usually by now it’s dead. Hope it survives until Monday at least and then we can talk maybe some realistic possibilities 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3K NAM doesn't suck for tomorrow afternoon. Who knows if it's right or will go poof at 12z. But I think we'd all be more than happy with mood flakes at this point. 45F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, Duca892 said: Hey at this point I’m just happy something has survived until under 200hrs. I’m sure we have had others before this winter but usually by now it’s dead. Hope it survives until Monday at least and then we can talk maybe some realistic possibilities Next 3 runs is usually when the threats have vanished or morphed into something totally different this season (144-180 hr range). If we can get this under a week then it might be a legit threat. I still like the look up top we are getting. Just need that to have a real impact down in the states. Pretty typical late season look tbh with a boundary pushing thru establishing the cold and a followup right on it's heels with the shorter wavelengths in-between. Problem we have seen repeatedly is the followup gets pushed too far S or sheared out. Saw this with the similar pattern in Dec when the 50/50 and NAO established. Hoping this time it works and we actually get the SER to flex just the right amt and nudge thing towards our lat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 We have already seen our high temperature for today at 52.3 degrees this morning at 4:58am. We are down to 43.8 here at 8am. Tonight should be the coldest night in a couple weeks and there is an increasing chance of some light snow across much of the county tomorrow late morning and afternoon. All models show some very minor snow accumulations during the day with temps struggling to pass the freezing mark. Warmer again by Sunday with snow quickly changing to rain on Monday. Records for today: High 74 (1985) / Low 0.3 below zero (2015) / Precipitation 2.47" (2016)/ Snow 5.5' (1907) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 16 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: We have already seen our high temperature for today at 52.3 degrees this morning at 4:58am. We are down to 43.8 here at 8am. Tonight should be the coldest night in a couple weeks and there is an increasing chance of some light snow across much of the county tomorrow late morning and afternoon. All models show some very minor snow accumulations during the day with temps struggling to pass the freezing mark. Warmer again by Sunday with snow quickly changing to rain on Monday. Records for today: High 74 (1985) / Low 0.3 below zero (2015) / Precipitation 2.47" (2016)/ Snow 5.5' (1907) 71.8F here. I broke the Chester County record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 6z GFS has an interesting setup for a crush. The NBM isn't buying it yet though. My "high" of 47 (so far) for the day actually started after 8 am since the temps took a nose dive yesterday and overnight. Am currently mostly sunny and 47 with dp 28. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, chubbs said: 71.8F here. I broke the Chester County record. Charlie you really need that fan aspirated system to stop those warm readings way down there in the southern climes of Chesco!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 12z NAM 12k is still Namming us for tomorrow. Extended the duration and slightly increased amounts fwiw. 3k version wants nothing to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 46 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Charlie you really need that fan aspirated system to stop those warm readings way down there in the southern climes of Chesco!! Saw similar temperatures in the East York area-- fascinating mircoclimate there! By my work (eastern edge of amish country) Weeping willows, flowering cherries and alders are begining to leaf-out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 Actually I stand corrected on the 12k nam....scaled back the 'big event' for tomorrow. Surface maps looked improved, snowfall maps backed off. Assuming it will be a mood flakes kind of day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 Narrow deathband on the fv3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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