Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 That's one heck of a +EPO trough diving in western Canada.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Yesterday was our 1st below normal temperature day since February 4th and only our 6th below normal day this year! Back to above normal temps for much of the upcoming work week before below normal temps and maybe a little snow to rain mix next weekend. Records for today: High 67.2 (2017) / Low 2 below (1978) / Precipitation 1.20" (1898)/ Snow 12.0" (1972). Of note that 12" of snow today in 1972 would be followed on the 23rd by 1" of snow. It would not snow again across most of Chester County for 22 months until the 8" snowstorm of December 16-17, 1973. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 16 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS is a crusher. 1-2' verbatim. Hope you all have buckled up and been patient. It's go time. What a model Charlie Brown uuugghhhh good grief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 All buckled up and no where to go. 52F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 The GFS giveth and the GFS taketh away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 No fear there is still Chuck's green snowy St. Patrick's day blitz period mid March. Then it's over.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 I blame a greenskeeper appearance for any shenanigans regarding the model runs. Good day to put on the ripped flannel and jeans and change the oil/filter in the car. Temps in the 50s (50F currently) and limited sun through high clouds w/a breeze. So not too hot nor cold w/the right amount of sun... 51F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Another forecast cloudy day with sun mind boggeling run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, RedSky said: No fear there is still Chuck's green snowy St. Patrick's day blitz period mid March. Then it's over.. I think we have NAO dominate the N. Hemisphere pattern March 9-19, but I wonder if that is too late after the Stratosphere downwelling time to 500mb is around the turn of the month.. If it lasts, we kind of have a signal for the Pacific to take #2. STJ remains active on the LR GFS, and after December was only the 2nd December ever with -NAO and above average precip across the country it could happen.. I still worry about the Pacific-Atlantic neg correlation (-NAO going deeper is +EPO/-PNA going deeper/mirroring). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, RedSky said: What a model Charlie Brown uuugghhhh good grief CMC is snow on mix on Rain on snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 33 minutes ago, Duca892 said: The GFS giveth and the GFS taketh away Yet the CMC and both ens increase the chances. So if you want to buy the gfs op from run to run, go for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Tomorrow could be interesting with some strong showers/storms moving through in the afternoon. A very low freezing level of 850mb, steep low-level lapse rates, some SBCAPE, and a deep mixed-layer will give a shot for some thunder, small hail, and gusty winds. Then we turn to Thursday where there will be a very legit shot for 70s across SE PA. The NAM, which is usually biased cold, even has it. Wherever the boundary sets up though will be the difference between mid-40s to the north and low-70s to the south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 With the exception of Friday this week looks pretty unsettled weather wise with temps bouncing from warmer today and tomorrow; colder Wednesday with maybe some snow mixed with rain; very warm on Thursday in the 60's then colder for the weekend with snow changing to rain. Records for today: High 71 (1930) / Low 4 below zero (1903) / Precipitation 2.11" (1924) / Snow 11.0" (1921) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 And another forecast cloudy day mostly sunny so far 60F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Beautiful day. Daffodils are in full bloom out front. Buckle up for full spring ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Won't be full spring next weekend looks below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Beautiful day. Daffodils are in full bloom out front. Buckle up for full spring ahead. Yep, buckle up! 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 2 hours ago, RedSky said: Won't be full spring next weekend looks below normal Cloudy 30s this upcoming Sat. Then multiple 40F-ish days next week? Something something (Super light/mist) falling while outside. 55F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Have been progressively warming up since the weekend after a Sat. 26 low/41 high and a Sun. 31 low and 52 high. Today's low was 43 and I got up to a comfortable 62 for a high. Have had an unsettled day with clouds and sun. Was expecting it to rain earlier and it was delayed but not denied, with some non-measurable at post time (walk is wet). Currently damp and 55 with dp 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 well this is the nail in the coffin for us this winter. I am officially declaring this the worst winter EVER here in the LV. When the hills around the SF Bay area are expected to get 1-2 inches of snow this week, Vegas, Tuscon and sw Texas get snow on the ground for longer than a day and we have had literally nothing that has lasted more than 6 hours this winter, the winter has been officially DOA. IN my 64 years, I have never seen a winter season warmer on the east coast than on the west coast in February. Truly ironic. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-122.43183690962128&lat=37.54033067584129 Current conditions at Half Moon Bay Airport (KHAF) Lat: 37.5136°NLon: 122.4996°WElev: 65ft. Mist 50°F 10°C Humidity 87% Wind Speed N 0 MPH Barometer 30.08 in (1018.63 mb) Dewpoint 46°F (8°C) Visibility 4.00 mi Last update 20 Feb 06:55 PM PST More Information: Local Forecast OfficeMore Local Wx3 Day HistoryMobile WeatherHourly Weather Forecast Extended Forecast for 4 Miles E Montara CA Click here for hazard details and duration Wind Advisory Tonight Partly Cloudy Low: 45 °F Tuesday Mostly Sunny and Windy High: 51 °F⇓ Tuesday Night Slight Chance Showers and Windy Low: 40 °F Wednesday Chance Showers and Breezy High: 45 °F Wednesday Night Chance Rain/Snow then Snow Showers Likely Low: 37 °F Thursday Rain/Snow Likely then Showers Likely High: 44 °F Thursday Night Rain/Snow Likely Low: 36 °F Friday Chance Rain/Snow then Chance Showers High: 45 °F Friday Night Slight Chance Rain/Snow then Partly Cloudy Low: 36 °F Detailed Forecast Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. West northwest wind 7 to 10 mph. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a temperature rising to near 51 by 11am, then falling to around 43 during the remainder of the day. Windy, with a northwest wind 21 to 26 mph increasing to 29 to 34 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Tuesday Night A 10 percent chance of showers after 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Wednesday A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly between 10am and 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy, with a west northwest wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Wednesday Night A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 7pm, then snow showers likely. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. West wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Thursday Snow showers likely before 10am, then rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Thursday Night Rain and snow showers likely before 4am, then a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday A chance of snow showers before 10am, then a chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Friday Night A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 49. Sunday Night A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Monday A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 ....Northern Mid Atlantic... In the wake of an initial frontal wave migrating offshore, models indicate that boundary-layer warming and mixing with insolation along and east of the Allegheny Mountains, coupled with modest residual low-level moisture, may contribute to weak destabilization ahead of an occluding surface low migrating east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes. Beneath very cold mid-level air (including 500 mb temps at or below -30 C), it appears that the environment may become conducive to scattered low-topped thunderstorms capable of producing small hail/graupel. Some of this activity, mainly across parts of eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey, may also aid the downward transfer of momentum associated with 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, contributing to a risk for damaging surface gusts during the mid to late afternoon hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 If you don't like the weather at anytime this week...just wait a few hours. A very changeable pattern for the rest of the week. We picked up 0.15" of rain overnight and will see another round of rain this PM. While amounts will be light there could be some thunder and high wind gusts later today with the frontal passage. Colder tonight and tomorrow with more rain arriving tomorrow night then very warm on Thursday with highs well into the 60. Temperatures then fall below normal by Friday and Saturday with a slight chance of some snow on Saturday before warming back up above normal by Sunday. Records for today: High 77.7 (2018) / Low Zero (1903) / Precipitation 2.49" (1902) Snow 12.3" (1947) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Just had a shower here, with some pretty strong winds. Now it's back to partly sunny and some breezes, 52F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Semi distant thunder. The February winter highlight I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 A bit of thunder here in Allentown. We’ve had more claps of thunder today than inches of snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Torrential pea sized hail lol Best hail storm ever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Everythings white lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 .5" hail and now a double "hail" bow! 45F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 That is one nasty cell crossing into NJ right now. Even has a little hook on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Had 0.17" rain with round 1 this morning and have been watching as stuff has passed overhead but no precip. yet. The lightning detector did pick up some strikes so the convection is definitely out there and I saw STS up over in Jersey. After a 40 low, currently changeable skies (with some storm clouds looking west) and 57 with dp 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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