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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread


Ralph Wiggum
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Yesterday was our 1st below normal temperature day since February 4th and only our 6th below normal day this year! Back to above normal temps for much of the upcoming work week before below normal temps and maybe a little snow to rain mix next weekend.
Records for today: High 67.2 (2017) / Low 2 below (1978) / Precipitation 1.20" (1898)/ Snow 12.0" (1972). Of note that 12" of snow today in 1972 would be followed on the 23rd by 1" of snow. It would not snow again across most of Chester County for 22 months until the 8" snowstorm of December 16-17, 1973.
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I blame a greenskeeper appearance for any shenanigans regarding the model runs. 

Good day to put on the ripped flannel and jeans and change the oil/filter in the car. Temps in the 50s (50F currently) and limited sun through high clouds w/a breeze. So not too hot nor cold w/the right amount of sun...

51F

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

No fear there is still Chuck's green snowy St. Patrick's day blitz period mid March. Then it's over..

 

I think we have NAO dominate the N. Hemisphere pattern March 9-19, but I wonder if that is too late after the Stratosphere downwelling time to 500mb is around the turn of the month.. If it lasts, we kind of have a signal for the Pacific to take #2. STJ remains active on the LR GFS, and after December was only the 2nd December ever with -NAO and above average precip across the country it could happen.. I still worry about the Pacific-Atlantic neg correlation (-NAO going deeper is +EPO/-PNA going deeper/mirroring).

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Tomorrow could be interesting with some strong showers/storms moving through in the afternoon. A very low freezing level of 850mb, steep low-level lapse rates, some SBCAPE, and a deep mixed-layer will give a shot for some thunder, small hail, and gusty winds.

image.thumb.png.3becf01f5c79e0645f09225877b4e137.pngimage.thumb.png.49715b8d3292cf79d013b3ea27042688.png

 

Then we turn to Thursday where there will be a very legit shot for 70s across SE PA. The NAM, which is usually biased cold, even has it. Wherever the boundary sets up though will be the difference between mid-40s to the north and low-70s to the south

sfct-imp.us_ne.png

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With the exception of Friday this week looks pretty unsettled weather wise with temps bouncing from warmer today and tomorrow; colder Wednesday with maybe some snow mixed with rain; very warm on Thursday in the 60's then colder for the weekend with snow changing to rain.
Records for today: High 71 (1930) / Low 4 below zero (1903) / Precipitation 2.11" (1924) / Snow 11.0" (1921)
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Have been progressively warming up since the weekend after a Sat. 26 low/41 high and a Sun. 31 low and 52 high. 

Today's low was 43 and I got up to a comfortable 62 for a high.  Have had an unsettled day with clouds and sun. Was expecting it to rain earlier and it was delayed but not denied, with some non-measurable at post time (walk is wet).

Currently damp and 55 with dp 40.

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well this is the nail in the coffin for us this winter. I am officially declaring this the worst winter EVER here in the LV. When the hills around the SF Bay area are expected to get 1-2 inches of snow this week, Vegas, Tuscon and sw Texas get snow on the ground for longer than a day and we have had literally nothing that has lasted more than 6 hours this winter, the winter has been officially DOA.  IN my 64 years, I have never seen a winter season warmer on the east coast than on the west coast in February. Truly ironic.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-122.43183690962128&lat=37.54033067584129

Current conditions at

Half Moon Bay Airport (KHAF)

Lat: 37.5136°NLon: 122.4996°WElev: 65ft.

Mist

50°F

10°C

Humidity 87%
Wind Speed N 0 MPH
Barometer 30.08 in (1018.63 mb)
Dewpoint 46°F (8°C)
Visibility 4.00 mi
Last update 20 Feb 06:55 PM PST
Extended Forecast for

4 Miles E Montara CA

Click here for hazard details and duration
Wind Advisory
  • Tonight
     

    Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. West northwest wind 7 to 10 mph.

    Partly Cloudy

    Low: 45 °F

  • Tuesday
     

    Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a temperature rising to near 51 by 11am, then falling to around 43 during the remainder of the day. Windy, with a northwest wind 21 to 26 mph increasing to 29 to 34 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

    Mostly Sunny
    and Windy

    High: 51 °F

  • Tuesday
    Night

    Tuesday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers after 4am.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph.

    Slight Chance
    Showers and
    Windy

    Low: 40 °F

  • Wednesday
     

    Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly between 10am and 4pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy, with a west northwest wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph.  New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

    Chance
    Showers and
    Breezy

    High: 45 °F

  • Wednesday
    Night

    Wednesday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 7pm, then snow showers likely. Some thunder is also possible.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. West wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

    Chance
    Rain/Snow
    then Snow
    Showers
    Likely

    Low: 37 °F

  • Thursday
     

    Thursday: Snow showers likely before 10am, then rain showers likely.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

    Rain/Snow
    Likely then
    Showers
    Likely

    High: 44 °F

  • Thursday
    Night

    Thursday Night: Rain and snow showers likely before 4am, then a chance of snow showers.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

    Rain/Snow
    Likely

    Low: 36 °F

  • Friday
     

    Friday: A chance of snow showers before 10am, then a chance of rain showers.  Partly sunny, with a high near 45.

    Chance
    Rain/Snow
    then Chance
    Showers

    High: 45 °F

  • Friday
    Night

    Friday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 10pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.

    Slight Chance
    Rain/Snow
    then Partly
    Cloudy

    Low: 36 °F

Detailed Forecast

Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. West northwest wind 7 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a temperature rising to near 51 by 11am, then falling to around 43 during the remainder of the day. Windy, with a northwest wind 21 to 26 mph increasing to 29 to 34 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.
Tuesday Night
A 10 percent chance of showers after 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph.
Wednesday
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly between 10am and 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy, with a west northwest wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 7pm, then snow showers likely. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. West wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Thursday
Snow showers likely before 10am, then rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Thursday Night
Rain and snow showers likely before 4am, then a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Friday
A chance of snow showers before 10am, then a chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 45.
Friday Night
A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 49.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.
Sunday
Partly sunny, with a high near 49.
Sunday Night
A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42.
Monday
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50.
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....Northern Mid Atlantic...
   In the wake of an initial frontal wave migrating offshore, models
   indicate that boundary-layer warming and mixing with insolation
   along and east of the Allegheny Mountains, coupled with modest
   residual low-level moisture, may contribute to weak destabilization
   ahead of an occluding surface low migrating east-northeast of the
   lower Great Lakes.  Beneath very cold mid-level air (including 500
   mb temps at or below -30 C), it appears that the environment may
   become conducive to scattered low-topped thunderstorms capable of
   producing small hail/graupel.  Some of this activity, mainly across
   parts of eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey, may also aid the
   downward transfer of momentum associated with 40-50+ kt
   west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, contributing to a
   risk for damaging surface gusts during the mid to late afternoon
   hours.

day1otlk_1200.gif

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If you don't like the weather at anytime this week...just wait a few hours. A very changeable pattern for the rest of the week. We picked up 0.15" of rain overnight and will see another round of rain this PM. While amounts will be light there could be some thunder and high wind gusts later today with the frontal passage. Colder tonight and tomorrow with more rain arriving tomorrow night then very warm on Thursday with highs well into the 60. Temperatures then fall below normal by Friday and Saturday with a slight chance of some snow on Saturday before warming back up above normal by Sunday.
Records for today: High 77.7 (2018) / Low Zero (1903) / Precipitation 2.49" (1902) Snow 12.3" (1947)
image.png.6f9d8af0491ed027f691ba14ae500d68.png
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Had 0.17" rain with round 1 this morning and have been watching as stuff has passed overhead but no precip. yet.  The lightning detector did pick up some strikes so the convection is definitely out there and I saw STS up over in Jersey.

After a 40 low, currently changeable skies (with some storm clouds looking west) and 57 with dp 42.

kdix_20230221_2030_BR_0.4.png

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