Newman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I could see Berks, Lehigh, and Northampton counties starting as sleet, then as the column moistens and cools briefly thumping 1-2" of snow. Then as the mid-levels warm we'll switch to sleet and freezing rain before turning to rain. Carbon and Monroe counties will stay snow longer and those further south in Montgomery, Bucks, etc. will likely start as sleet and then go straight to rain. One thing to take note of is if the CAD can hold on longer and prevail. I don't think we're far enough out anymore for major changes. But for areas like the Lehigh Valley, an extra hour or two of sleet/freezing rain is possible than expected if it stays colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 ^^I find these kuchera maps not quite as accurate and often deceptive. Ive been using the positive snow depth change maps and they are generally pretty spot-op in comparison. Especially when mixing is involved like the Thursday event. Keeps expectations more realistic as well.Kuch is showing 6:1-8:1 for this, the 10:1 maps are much higher. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Current thoughts 2-4” LV 4-8” poconos 6-12 NEPA . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 NAM at range but looks like it's coming in warm to my untrained eyes. I'll take my 15 minutes of IP and declare victory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 NAM colder in the marginal zones. 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 6z NAM for reference . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Much colder in fact . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 NAM is much snowier for northern parts of the Lehigh Valley and Poconos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 My current idea IP to rain - Delaware and Eastern Chester 0.5" to 1.0" - Western Chester and Western Montgomery Counties 2-4” Northern Bucks and Lehigh Valley 5"-9” Poconos 7"-11" NE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Gotta love being literally right on the rain/snow line for this. Any 20 mile shift in either direction will change things a ton. Gonna be a really tough forecast for my page… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 The NAM for now has the low actually almost going right up the GS Parkway. If verification is a move 25 miles east - I would tug that thump of early accumulating snow down a bit into Chester County.....now if it is 25 miles further inland....really quick turn to rain. Either way rain should wash any accumulations away as far North as Tamaqua Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 RGEM much snowier for LV and poconos . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 RGEM much snowier for LV and poconos .But also a hell of a cut off. 1” at the southern point of Lehigh county, 9” at the northern end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: NAM at range but looks like it's coming in warm to my untrained eyes. I'll take my 15 minutes of IP and declare victory. I expect a couple pings maybe mixed in w/a flake or two then cold rain but I was never excited about this event. 12/20 and going forward seems like legitimate chances. Temps are slowly trending downward... Bright sunshine/clear skies/34F at 11:35am...that's decent cold for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 hour ago, LVblizzard said: Gotta love being literally right on the rain/snow line for this. Any 20 mile shift in either direction will change things a ton. Gonna be a really tough forecast for my page… its all on the soundings. A cooling profile wherever it sets up will bring down those accumulating fatties in a hurry. Usually south mountain is the demarcation line in these events. Good thing, the ground is cold this time so it should start accumulating real quick. I have seen over a dozen times. Padot will be brining tomorrow afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just saw the CMC oh baby 2' in the Lehigh Valley still going but it ran out of run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 HO HO HO Sorry Jersey peeps it's only fantasy * includes Thursday snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 It almost kind of looks for sure that Bethlehem will get its first inch of the year. I’m happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 CMC is going bonkers next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 That’s a very promising signal around the 23rd-24th. The question is can we get just the right amount of blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 It almost kind of looks for sure that Bethlehem will get its first inch of the year. I’m happy.1-3/2-4 here looks good. We’ll be plowing, we will also be brining the city tomorrow . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 hours ago, LVblizzard said: That’s a very promising signal around the 23rd-24th. The question is can we get just the right amount of blocking? Euro says no and brings us our annual Christmas Eve cutter. Every GD year… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 32 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Euro says no and brings us our annual Christmas Eve cutter. Every GD year… Unbelievable that run was run especially from Dr No's basement lair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 33 minutes ago, RedSky said: Unbelievable that run was run especially from Dr No's basement lair. So you believe the TPV dropping into Southern CA? Go with the ens dude you know better. Ens are better, not quite honkable but certainly trackable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I know you’re all concerned, but WSW up here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 My local white rain on the line forecast is out New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Gnashing my teeth hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Looks like the 18z NAM held steady with my 15 minutes of sleet. Hope I remember to look out a window so I don't miss it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 hours ago, RedSky said: HO HO HO Sorry Jersey peeps it's only fantasy * includes Thursday snow Heading to Hunter Mountain with my sons Thursday evening during this timeframe. Should be interesting.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now