Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 Far from over yet. Maybe we can reach seasonal totals with 1 or 2 backloaders. Very consistent signal for this period: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 Give me this and I call it a winter: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 That’s like the first time the GFS has shown on 2 consistent runs some type of the same storm in months Lmfao . Welp… stay there 5 days from now please and thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 11 minutes ago, Duca892 said: That’s like the first time the GFS has shown on 2 consistent runs some type of the same storm in months Lmfao . Welp… stay there 5 days from now please and thank you Like 5 out of 7 runs now....this the most woof worthy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Give me this and I call it a winter: Give me a Birds win and I'll call it a winter. (Take down Xmas lights also) We just don't have cold air around. I'll looking forward to our standard below average Spring into May... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 46 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Give me a Birds win and I'll call it a winter. (Take down Xmas lights also) We just don't have cold air around. I'll looking forward to our standard below average Spring into May... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 ECM day 10 looks nothing like the GFS..on to March 60's in Indiana to PA when the GFS has 30's lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 30 minutes ago, RedSky said: ECM day 10 looks nothing like the GFS..on to March 60's in Indiana to PA when the GFS has 30's lol Too far out to say one way or the other, but in this winter, I can see a show me attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 hour ago, RedSky said: ECM day 10 looks nothing like the GFS..on to March 60's in Indiana to PA when the GFS has 30's lol Cmon Red...you know the Euro day 10 has been verifying completely opposite what it has shown all season long. Shows cold and we've been warm, shows warm and we've been BN. We got that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 We have now exceeded 120" of accumulated GFS Snow model snow this year for Chester County....only problem is no winter event this season has even hit the 1 mark..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Radar reminds me of that mid-day dryslot on January 23rd, 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Ralph's GFS snow predictably inched north. Worst year ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 We picked up a needed .07" of rain yesterday. Beautiful late winter day across the County today. Temps today in the 50's and we might hit 60 degrees on Wednesday. Looks like rain again by Thursday. The record high for today is 65 degrees from 1951. Record low was the 5 below zero from 1979. The daily precipitation and snow record are both from today's date in 1899. In the midst of the greatest snowstorm in Chester County history with 35.3" of snow falling on the 13th alone and an incredible storm total of 53.0" by the time the storm wrapped up on Valentines Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Now that football season is over, we can turn our full attention to tracking snow. How we looking? 52F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 5 hours ago, JTA66 said: Now that football season is over, we can turn our full attention to tracking snow. How we looking? 52F 10 day storm still showing up but far from a certainty to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 After a 39 low this morning I made it up to 57 for a high. Ended up getting 0.17" of rain yesterday which was the first measurable recorded for the month so far (other times there was enough to wet the walks but not tip the bucket). Currently 48 with a dryish dp of 21 (I saw SPSs up for the N/W burbs for fire potential weather issues). And 18z GFS - end of month frozen from what looks like a fropa. Lock and load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 for the first time in over five weeks, both the 0Z GFS and 0Z CMC runs saying something will fall out of the sky by the end of month into March that is frozen-- from 5-16 inches of frozen whatever on the clown maps now. over E PA. The fact that there is even a chance of frozen precip and that both models are consistent with this idea is the first promising hint of some significant type of winter storm event this year. I guess better late than never. However , I am not holding my breath. Could be model mayhem right now with a new weather pattern change. Just maybe the SER will relax enough to allow the GOM to open up for business. It sure the hell has been dry enough around here. Today we had a wildfire risk statement issued and unless we some receive serious GOM moisture in our area, I see a lot of red flags warnings being hoisted in March as we start to warm up even more as the forest floors are pretty dry already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2023 Author Share Posted February 14, 2023 All 3 major globals have a frozen event in the region between 200-240 hours. 6z GFS was a weenie run with 2 or 3 frozen events thru the run. Not quite over yet. Think the SSWE currently unfolding will have an effect also as we enter the middle portion of March. Some mixed signals that March could be a severely anomalous BN temp month. Buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2023 Author Share Posted February 14, 2023 5 hours ago, Albedoman said: for the first time in over five weeks, both the 0Z GFS and 0Z CMC runs saying something will fall out of the sky by the end of month into March that is frozen-- GFS and the GEPS have been all over this for at least 5 days. Nice to see the Euro trending the right way for a change too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2023 Author Share Posted February 14, 2023 This is major! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 But DT just did his three week and has next week as a repeat furnace. 180 degree flip in next week in 12hrs would be skeptical and see if it holds for at least 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 In a season of beggars can’t be choosers… I’m just happy something is somewhat consistently showing up right now. It will shake itself out good or bad, but it’s at the very least something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 GFS Ensembles like the euro don't see 1' snow day 9 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2023 Author Share Posted February 14, 2023 40 minutes ago, RedSky said: But DT just did his three week and has next week as a repeat furnace. 180 degree flip in next week in 12hrs would be skeptical and see if it holds for at least 24hrs. But it isn't a flip in 12 hrs. Only the Euro family had a furnace and even those have slowly been stepping down to a colder look. Seeing signs of decent ridging up top with a SPV being displaced underneath. This time of the year those are the ingredients needed for an anomalous cold pattern. But as you know, without the HL ridging we likely torch so it could still go either way. But to see the SWE and the subsequent signals for HL ridging on the ens leaves some hope in an otherwise crap winter. Not backing down off my backloaded winter thoughts. Still see no reason to change this thinking....fairly typical for a Nina. Just hope the SWE doesn't muck things up. If the backloaded Nina couples with a favorable SWE could potentially have an epic last 4 weeks to winter to be perfectly honest. Like playing roulette...could have a pretty big payout........or could just be giving out chips to the house. I'll take my chances with at least a shot at something tho. Can't hit the jackpot without putting in your chips. LFG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 I look at March as the first four weeks of spring and the idea of cold and snow AGAIN after a dumpsterfire winter is terrible. Unfortunately the odds are leaning in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2023 Author Share Posted February 14, 2023 All 3 ens means (gefs, geps, eps) have Scandinavian ridging feeding into the NAO region by the waning days of Feb. If we needed a hail Mary for a late miracle these are the ingredients. Hopefully the big throw can at least travel 40 yards unlike Jalen Hurts' late try at a Hail Mary. Too soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2023 Author Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 minute ago, RedSky said: I look at March as the first four weeks of spring and the idea of cold and snow AGAIN after a dumpsterfire winter is terrible. Unfortunately the odds are leaning in that direction. March is the new December. Need to change your mindset. 15 years ago I agree with you....I'm usually getting ready for yard work, fishing, etc. But past decade I've been putting those on hold until after April 7. It isn't just cloud talk, it is a real seasonal change. Not sure the scientific reasoning. Might be a question for a red tagger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Another well above normal day today with temps in the low 50's. Our normal high today is just shy of 40 degrees. Of note today is the last day in the winter with average high temperatures of less than 40 degrees. The next time average high temperatures are in the 30's will be December 19th. Tomorrow we will approach near 60 but with increasing clouds. Rain looks to arrive on Thursday into early Friday. Will will turn briefly chillier again on Friday PM into Saturday before warming up again by Sunday. Our records for today: High 63 degrees (1949) / Low 4 below zero (1979) / Precipitation 1.25" (2007) / Snow 10.0" (1899) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: All 3 major globals have a frozen event in the region between 200-240 hours. 6z GFS was a weenie run with 2 or 3 frozen events thru the run. Not quite over yet. Think the SSWE currently unfolding will have an effect also as we enter the middle portion of March. Some mixed signals that March could be a severely anomalous BN temp month. Buckle up. "Buckle Up" has been your favorite phrase this winter. ...or "Two more weeks" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: March is the new December. Need to change your mindset. 15 years ago I agree with you....I'm usually getting ready for yard work, fishing, etc. But past decade I've been putting those on hold until after April 7. It isn't just cloud talk, it is a real seasonal change. Not sure the scientific reasoning. Might be a question for a red tagger. I will look at March individually across only Chester County but for the March - April - May spring months overall as usual any actual temperature changes appear cyclical. With overall Phoenixville warmer - West Chester flat and Coatesville trending cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now