Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 Btw, this ^^^ is also the reason that expectations should always stay in-check. Just because an ens means may show a gorgeous west based nao block, alot still needs to come together properly for a snow event, especially along the i95 corridor. That said, I would still rather have the HL looks we are seeing so far this season and take my chances with that rather than all blues and lp up North. Throw us enough chances and we will cash in. Patience rules in a Nina, period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Dry and seasonably chilly start to the work week through Wednesday. It looks like a major storm will impact the area with our first nor'easter of the season starting on Thursday. As always the exact track of the storm will determine how much if any snow or ice we get before any change to rain. The record high for today is 69 degrees from 2015. Our record low is 2 degrees above zero set in 1988. The rain record is 1.98" from 1993. Our daily snow record is the 3" from 1916. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Was skiing at JF all day yesterday. Beautiful conditions with snow falling all day, 3" approx, but a bit wet and sticky with heavy pancakes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Am I reading this right that something is brewing for next Tues/Wed 12/21-22 as well? Looks like the cold may not get here in time though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Great trends in the last 12 hours for late week. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, ChescoWx said: Hey now. I would gladly take 2-4in of slop here in Bethlehem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 ECM day 10 is a beaut Clarke, if only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 JMA has the storm a couple days early on the 20th. Heavy snows inland but warm i95 fwiw which aint much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 So...are we still looking for a Thursday Night/Friday deal or is that a cold rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Getting NAM’D this go round . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 34 minutes ago, dssbss said: So...are we still looking for a Thursday Night/Friday deal or is that a cold rain now. Being in Reading, I would think you get at least a little something frozen... 37F/Cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Can't wait to be on the line receiving white rain again, nailed this being a gnashing of teeth period alright. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Being in Reading, I would think you get at least a little something frozen... 37F/Cloudy Yeah might even be some down where we are even if sleet. Hoping to at least get something measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 18z GFS is depicting some wrap-around snow as the low departs Friday/Saturday. As some quick obs, I made it up to 41 today after a low of 33. Had a little drive-by rain shower early this morning for 0.01" and with 0,11" yesterday, ended up with a 0.12" 2-day total. Skies were unsettled in general today with the sun fighting to appear and then giving up. Currently 37 with dp 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Can't wait to be on the line receiving white rain again, nailed this being a gnashing of teeth period alright. But this is the new normal around here gnashing of teeth. You can thank the Nina and warm Atlantic. When the Atlantic is warm it is a dam if you do dam if you don't teeter totter that we ride between storm intensity, track, and lower and upper-level wind flow off ever warming ocean to our east and southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 18z GFS is depicting some wrap-around snow as the low departs Friday/Saturday. As some quick obs, I made it up to 41 today after a low of 33. Had a little drive-by rain shower early this morning for 0.01" and with 0,11" yesterday, ended up with a 0.12" 2-day total. Skies were unsettled in general today with the sun fighting to appear and then giving up. Currently 37 with dp 31 Hmm that's quite a jump to the east of the low along the coast and then gets shoved off the coast. If that storm is intensifying at all I would think it could drag down some cold air from the north and switch rain to snow along and just north and west of the Delaware River Wilmington towards Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said: But this is the new normal around here gnashing of teeth. You can thank the Nina and warm Atlantic. When the Atlantic is warm it is a dam if you do dam if you don't teeter totter that we ride between storm intensity, track, and lower and upper-level wind flow off ever warming ocean to our east and southeast. It's not just La Nina and a "warm" ocean. It's still December and unless there are some really anomalous cold outbreaks early in fall, the ocean isn't really going to hit it's coldest temps until well into February, which is the typical lag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, Hurricane Agnes said: It's not just La Nina and a "warm" ocean. It's still December and unless there are some really anomalous cold outbreaks early in fall, the ocean isn't really going to hit it's coldest temps until well into February, which is the typical lag. Yes, true true then there is December 23rd, 2009, when we got 23" of snow in Media with a water temperature at ACY at 53 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 18z GFS with a solid thump for the LHV Thursday, some areas stay all snow or frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Hmm that's quite a jump to the east of the low along the coast and then gets shoved off the coast. If that storm is intensifying at all I would think it could drag down some cold air from the north and switch rain to snow along and just north and west of the Delaware River Wilmington towards Trenton. Could be a mid-range blip. Will have to see what the 0z says... 1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said: Yes, true true then there is December 23rd, 2009, when we got 23" of snow in Media with a water temperature at ACY at 53 degrees. 2009 - 2010 was an El Nino winter but anytime you have some kind of tucked coastal, it's gonna wrap in too much warm air just inland. If you get a juiced up clipper with enough intensity and antecedent cold air, you could get walloped as the ocean moisture wraps in around the low and loses the battle with the cold air as the low approaches the coast. This thing almost looks like an overrunning precip event pulling moisture out of the GOM first before it spins something off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 18z GEFS showing an obvious north focus for the greatest amounts of frozen by the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 To compare - the 18z NBM - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 18z hi-res EC (only up to 90 hours) shows the low really tucked in but then still wraps cold air in over I95 (but I expect it means some kind of mix). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 That 994mb primary low really killed this next threat for i95 and the lowlands. Brief mix at the onset in extreme SE PA then a cold rain. Lehigh Valley should hang on to mostly frozen as this is mainly an interior and elevation event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Dry the next 2 days with slightly below normal temps in the upper 30's for highs across the County. Clouds will increase with snow arriving Thursday AM...we should see a quick turn over to rain from southeast to northwest during the mid-morning hours. Up to an inch of snow is the current early NWS forecast. Some models have up to 3" for NW sections of Chester County but we don't shovel models. The record high for today is 69.7 set in 2015. The record low is 2 above zero from 1988. Record rainfall is the 4.21" that fell back in 1909. Daily snow record is 6.8" from 1915. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Def gonna be a nasty cutoff with this one. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 ^^I find these kuchera maps not quite as accurate and often deceptive. Ive been using the positive snow depth change maps and they are generally pretty spot-op in comparison. Especially when mixing is involved like the Thursday event. Keeps expectations more realistic as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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