E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread

[wkd]

very light snow.  36F

[ChescoWx]

I thought I would post the analysis of White Christmas chances for the Philly burbs of Chester County PA. We have about a 26% chance of at least 1" of snow on the ground come Christmas morning.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just a random thought/observation. I do like how we are 'stepping down' to a colder regime rather than relying on one massive polar blast overwhelming everything. At least thats the way it appears for now.

On another somewhat related note, LR gefs is sorta drool worthy but alas....lets move it up in time.

[RedSky]

Mangled flakes and white rain 34F

 

[Duca892]

Mike Masco keeps saying the GFS is throwing back errors 

[anthonyweather]

Mike Masco keeps saying the GFS is throwing back errors 

What about CMC and euro showing nearly identical solutions as the GFS?


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[Duca892]

7 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

What about CMC and euro showing nearly identical solutions as the GFS?


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Yerp. Agreed on that. I think he keeps hanging on to the GFS for… reasons… lol

[anthonyweather]

If you follow the NAVGEM rule, this will continue trending north


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[RedSky]

GFS has a Miller A fantasy hit 12/23

 

[The Iceman]

Just now, RedSky said:

GFS has a Miller A fantasy hit 12/23

 

That’s the one to watch, if 500 mb sets up like this(from 6z gefs), we will see snow from it even if coastal plain flips over for a time. That’s almost as textbook as it gets for big snow in these parts.

 

[JTA66]

Light rain. At 38F, no mangling is occurring.

[RedSky]

Last ten days of December as good a look as you could wish Santa for. Chances of torch Xmas quite low, the worst that could happen is dry and frigged.

 

[Birds~69]

45 minutes ago, RedSky said:

GFS has a Miller A fantasy hit 12/23

 

Push it a day forward. Xmas eve, Birds/Boys at 4:15 and snowing out....damn, that would be nice.

 

[JTA66]

I may not have the best reading comprehension, but my understanding since late Nov has been that the first half of December would be a nothing burger, we’d have to wait until the 15th or so for a better pattern to emerge, then post 20th/around the holiday season before we could hope to track.

Seems everything (so far) is moving along as expected.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

That’s the one to watch, if 500 mb sets up like this(from 6z gefs), we will see snow from it even if coastal plain flips over for a time. That’s almost as textbook as it gets for big snow in these parts.

 

All the pro mets are on this one and have been for a few days so it must be right. No more can kicking or fake threats....LFG!!

[RedSky]

Steady graupel here and 35F was not expecting that

[Newman]

Just some light rain and mist falling now. Had some heavier snow mix in throughout the morning to give a slushy coating to the car and grass. 33F

[RedSky]

Over to snow now heh

 

[Birds~69]

23 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Over to snow now heh

 

You're right on the line...

 

[anthonyweather]

1,5” here for me


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[RedSky]

5 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

You're right on the line...

 

The line itself sucked with white rain, i bet if i drove three miles north there is snow on the ground

[Albedoman]

snow on the ground from RT 100 and  RT 309 intersection north. White rain all day in Macungie. Strictly elevation storm

[anthonyweather]

1”-1.5 here in palmerton. 3” just 10 miles north




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[Ralph Wiggum]

Not loving the setup for the late week system. Antecedent stale airmass, long SE fetch out ahead, mid levels toasty. Certainly looks more wet than white for the lowlands and I95. Maybe we can squeeze out some wet flakes or mix for a bit.

Very much interested in the pattern evolution as we head into the week leading up to Christmas (and possibly farther out as well). EPO-/AO-/NAO-/PNA+....this would be one heck of a global model(s) fail if they all had the tellies wrong. But even if 1 is off, the pattern is loaded. Core of cross polar flow starts out in the western US then slowly bleeds east which is actually preferred vs a direct polar blast that overwhelms the flow and forces suppression. Split flow off the W Coast, active STJ, jet max under us. 

Buckle up....our patience may pay off soon. Going to start seeing discrete events showing up on guidance. Dec 22-26 is showing up as one such period that bears  watching. 

[Newman]

22 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not loving the setup for the late week system. Antecedent stale airmass, long SE fetch out ahead, mid levels toasty. Certainly looks more wet than white for the lowlands and I95. Maybe we can squeeze out some wet flakes or mix for a bit.

Very much interested in the pattern evolution as we head into the week leading up to Christmas (and possibly farther out as well). EPO-/AO-/NAO-/PNA+....this would be one heck of a global model(s) fail if they all had the tellies wrong. But even if 1 is off, the pattern is loaded. Core of cross polar flow starts out in the western US then slowly bleeds east which is actually preferred vs a direct polar blast that overwhelms the flow and forces suppression. Split flow off the W Coast, active STJ, jet max under us. 

Buckle up....our patience may pay off soon. Going to start seeing discrete events showing up on guidance. Dec 22-26 is showing up as one such period that bears  watching. 

It's super exciting that we should be entering a loaded pattern with our first storm threat centered right around Christmas. I'm rooting for a Dec 24-25 snowstorm.

[Ralph Wiggum]

What could have been a decent ice breaker (no pun intended) for SE PA late week has morphed into a cold mostly rain event here aside from some brief frozen at the onset. Far interior and elevated areas will see more wet snow and mixing. Remember when the primary was progged to quickly weaken and transfer to the coast? What a difference a day makes wrt the primary low:

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What could have been a decent ice breaker (no pun intended) for SE PA late week has morphed into a cold mostly rain event here aside from some brief frozen at the onset. Far interior and elevated areas will see more wet snow and mixing. Remember when the primary was progged to quickly weaken and transfer to the coast? What a difference a day makes wrt the primary low:

This was looking good for us along the coast.  Why is the primary not weakening as it heads into the block ?

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This was looking good for us along the coast.  Why is the primary not weakening as it heads into the block ?

It is weakening, but you know how this works by now...the primary almost never dies as quickly as models suggest especially in the extended range. They almost always hang on for dear life and muck up the forecast in the big cities and lowlands. Also a function of the new low not developing as fast. Combo of the two.

[anthonyweather]

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[Ralph Wiggum]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This was looking good for us along the coast.  Why is the primary not weakening as it heads into the block ?

A few days ago the ens had better HL ridging spread all along the Southern Canada/US border. This was when we were seeing better redevelopment and quicker transfer:

Fast forward to now and you see that ridging pulled N and is more consolidated as a 'block' near Baffin. That isnt a horrible look but it allows for the primary to stay in tact longer. Sure it may help the new low tick S and E, but the mid levels are torched for the lowlands and it would take a bomb to recover the mids quickly enough: