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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread


Ralph Wiggum
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52 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Made a trip to the gas station this evening. There was a guy there filling up a 2-gallon can. I was tempted to ask if it was for the snowblower or lawn mower.

wrong on both counts. I bet it was for his leaf blower. Those dam leaves have not been pushed down on the surface by the the lack of a snow pack and are still blowing everywhere. They using the blower for cleaning up mulch after spreading too.  This is the first time that I have ever seen mulch being spread in January in the LV These landscapers are really hurting as their off season plowing is shot to hell. 

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Today should be chillier but still above normal with temps in the upper 30's to near 40 today. Our next rain event starts later tomorrow PM. If the precipitation arrives early enough in the PM we could see some wet snow mixed in and of course a couple models still show a small measurable amount of snow before the change to rain. Of note the GFS model has the rain changing back to snow with a small accumulation across much of Chester County on Monday morning. The next rainstorm looks more likely to start as snow on Wednesday with some minor accumulations possible (but it would still be our "largest" snow event of the season if it comes to pass) Turning colder by the end of the work week with temps closer to normal.
Our record high for today is 67 degrees way back in 1906. The record low is 11 below zero from 1987. Daily precipitation record is 1.88" from 1902 and the record daily snow is the 10.0" that fell today back in 2014.
image.png.ad3d7e15defd9e5170d223e73ca022ce.png
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37f and Cloudy shocker I know, anyway it seems forever since we've had a WSW that actually verified 6+ in a single storm. Pinning our hopes for a snowy February might be the last gasp however it seems to always snow to some extent on or around my Birthday the12th so we shall see, until then enjoy the cold rain Maybe next winter will be our turn. GO BIRDS 

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17 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Partly sunny today? Good luck with that.

 

The sun is overrated. Creates crows feet from squinting, UV rays form premature wrinkles/cancer and it sucks driving into the sun's rays early in the morning (My Rt 422 days)

Clouds are my new best friend. Add some cold w/them, great football weather (today) and once in a blue moon they can actually produce snow. More clouds tomorrow and Monday...can't wait!

37F/Cloudy 

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31 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

The sun is overrated. Creates crows feet from squinting, UV rays form premature wrinkles/cancer and it sucks driving into the sun's rays early in the morning (My Rt 422 days)

Clouds are my new best friend. Add some cold w/them, great football weather (today) and once in a blue moon they can actually produce snow. More clouds tomorrow and Monday...can't wait!

37F/Cloudy 

Cloudy with a chance of meatballs? More likely than snow right now probably, right?

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On 1/20/2023 at 1:18 PM, RedSky said:

After the second rain storm next week the pattern SHOULD shift into something more normal and less cloudy as the Pacific firehose pineapple express finally stops injecting copious amounts of moisture into the atmosphere.

 

Cancel all of that. Guidance since yesterday indicating the Pacific atmospheric river of death will continue unabated. GFS/ECM now continue the wave train without end. 12z ECM has the worst look crashing massive troughing into California day 10. Euro is Stephen King nightmare run.

 

 

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A wintry WXSIM forecast for this week - snow or ice mentioned every day but Tuesday!

XSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at  2:00 PM Jan 21, 2023
 _______________________________________________________________________________
 
 This afternoon: Partly cloudy. High 40. Wind north around 2 mph.
 
 Tonight: Fair in the evening, becoming partly to mostly cloudy after midnight,
 with areas of light frost likely. Low 28. Wind northwest near calm in the
 evening, becoming south after midnight.
 
 Sunday: Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon.
 A chance of a mix of rain, snow, and sleet in the afternoon. High 41. Wind south
 around 3 mph in the morning, becoming 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of
 precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a
 quarter of an inch. Little or no snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected.
 
 Sunday night: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog. A mix of rain, sleet, and snow
 likely in the evening, then a mix of rain and snow likely after midnight. Low
 32. Wind southeast around 4 mph in the evening, becoming north-northwest after
 midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)
 mostly around an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected.
 
 Monday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy in the
 afternoon. Patchy light fog in the morning. A chance of a mix of snow, rain, and
 sleet in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High 38.
 Wind chill around 28. Wind northwest around 8 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the
 morning, becoming 12 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of
 precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a
 quarter of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected.
 
 Monday night: Fair to partly cloudy in the evening, becoming partly cloudy after
 midnight. Low 30. Wind chill ranging from 23 to 30. Wind northwest around 10
 mph, gusting to 19 mph.
 
 Tuesday: Partly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy in the
 afternoon. High 43. Wind west around 11 mph, gusting to 21 mph.
 
 Tuesday night: Partly cloudy in the evening, becoming partly to mostly cloudy
 after midnight, with areas of light frost likely. Low 31. Wind west around 6
 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the evening, becoming  near calm after midnight.
 
 Wednesday: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the morning,
 then a mix of sleet, rain, and snow likely in the afternoon. High 36. Wind east
 around 3 mph in the morning, becoming 9 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the
 afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)
 mostly around an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch.
 
 Wednesday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight.
 Patchy light fog after midnight. Rain likely. Low 34, but temperatures rising
 after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 25 to 37. Wind east around 10 mph,
 gusting to 17 mph, in the evening, becoming southwest around 3 mph after
 midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation mostly around an
 inch.

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19 hours ago, Albedoman said:

wrong on both counts. I bet it was for his leaf blower. Those dam leaves have not been pushed down on the surface by the the lack of a snow pack and are still blowing everywhere. They using the blower for cleaning up mulch after spreading too.  This is the first time that I have ever seen mulch being spread in January in the LV These landscapers are really hurting as their off season plowing is shot to hell. 

You ain’t kidding. Just came back from Target and landscapers were out there putting mulch down. Never seen that before in Jan either. 

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11 minutes ago, Newman said:

18z GFS for Monday. Has backside changing to snow now

sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.png

 

18z NAM gives some N/W but not down to I-95 corridor.

As an obs, after a 35 low, made it up to 40 today for a high with changeable skies this morning and then generally overcast the rest of the day.  Currently 38 and overcast with dp 28.

floop-nam-18z-snow-2023012118.sn10_acc-imp.us_ne-01212023.gif

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7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Cloudy with a chance of meatballs? More likely than snow right now probably, right?

We really wouldn't have to travel far for the Wed event, Scranton and such. It may come down to traveling for any of us to see a "decent storm, 3-6"+" this winter. I never traveled to see snow but this may be the year...

34F/Cloudy

8:14pm, Birds ready to start!

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9 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Models depicting "largest" Chester County snow week of the season to date!! snow totals by Wednesday evening below - buckle up!!

image.thumb.png.64db7d80fa922c033e26c39bd6d490ee.pngimage.thumb.png.31f8e9084bb3931f1c8bb8999e36206a.pngimage.thumb.png.034652e1ea6d2a389b709a7720d96bd6.png

At least we won't miss south...? Most interesting weather lately were some lightening strikes I was driving home from Reading on Thursday. Mountains up north are finally getting snow. Vermont supposedly has been a dream this week. 

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