RedSky Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Two sunny days back to back and another ECM snow run crazy stuff going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Albedoman said: wow, the planet Mars had a sunny day too. Its a shame we are now comparing the two for the amount of sun we have received this month a rarity indeed. https://www.itemfix.com/v?t=5e0ewn And it wasn't just a full sun day but one with no clouds at all (at least where I am) all day! Had a low of 26 this morning and made it up to 46 as a high. Air has been pretty dry to boot. Currently clear and 43 with dp 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Winter playoffs have started The GFS team has cutter #17 with a perfect record in seasonal trend The ECM team with the classic delmarva low with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 30 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: And it wasn't just a full sun day but one with no clouds at all (at least where I am) all day! Had a low of 26 this morning and made it up to 46 as a high. Air has been pretty dry to boot. Currently clear and 43 with dp 16. Best day so far this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 5 hours ago, RedSky said: Two sunny days back to back and another ECM snow run crazy stuff going on You punted. What were you thinking?! Hurry downfield and catch your own kick....fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 As per all 3 major ens means it looks like patience will finally pay off the last week of the month and into Feb. Signal for overrunning events is actually growing instead of waning. Get some of these discrete threats within 5 or 6 days and we might have something. Winter is far from over. Major SSWE happening and SPV split, enso ssts starting to warm, MJO not super amplified going into marginal phases, NAO-, split flow out west, TPV displaced south allowing for caa, 850s well BN, SER getting beat back. Let's do this! Buckle up...backloaded winter incoming 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: As per all 3 major ens means it looks like patience will finally pay off the last week of the month and into Feb. Signal for overrunning events is actually growing instead of waning. Get some of these discrete threats within 5 or 6 days and we might have something. Winter is far from over. Major SSWE happening and SPV split, enso ssts starting to warm, MJO not super amplified going into marginal phases, NAO-, split flow out west, TPV displaced south allowing for caa, 850s well BN, SER getting beat back. Let's do this! Buckle up...backloaded winter incoming All that and the GFS adds two cutters next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 5 hours ago, RedSky said: All that and the GFS adds two cutters next week And also added major snow event once the cutter pulls the boundary underneath us. GEFS / EPS appear primed as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 5 hours ago, RedSky said: All that and the GFS adds two cutters next week Gfs keeps showing a favorable switch at the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Gfs keeps showing a favorable switch at the end of the month Not even that far out tbh. Still could sneak something next 7 days but yes in general the 'best' looks are showing up after day 7. Get this under 7 days and get discrete threats under 5 and we dance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 A chance of some light rain today with highs in the low 40's our normal high is 36.8. We should see temps stay above freezing till Friday night. Tomorrow looks like the warmest day of the week with our high maybe touching 50 degrees. Thursday looks like a wet day with maybe 0.75" of rain possible. Dry and a bit cooler but still above normal by the weekend. The record high for today is 65 degrees from our only snowless winter of 1973. Record low is 13 below zero today in 1982. The daily precipitation record is 1.83" from 1994. Record snow is the 6.0" that fell today in 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 Euro has some frozen for Sunday. All 3 LR ops have several threats. 26th-27th looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Euro with a D5-6 threat and a D8-9 threat. Far interior favored for the first verbatim, coastal regions the second storm. Places in the middle (like Berks, Lancaster, etc) kinda get skunked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, Blizzard Hunter said: Hate to nitpick but this is actually the CMC you shared. I know you meant to type that. I hope Euro shows something similar, but a little colder. EC at that timeframe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 It'll be through Cleveland by Friday's 12z run... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Comical that every index there is has swung favorable for at least scoring average snowfall the next two weeks in the 48hrs since my punt, like it waited and then it was go time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 25 minutes ago, RedSky said: Comical that every index there is has swung favorable for at least scoring average snowfall the next two weeks in the 48hrs since my punt, like it waited and then it was go time. It happens. Never a bad thing to 'bust' the wrong way. But counting chickens before they hatch....let's actually score something first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 31 minutes ago, RedSky said: Comical that every index there is has swung favorable for at least scoring average snowfall the next two weeks in the 48hrs since my punt, like it waited and then it was go time. No snow on the ground yet and we do failure well. Too early to second guess the punt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It happens. Never a bad thing to 'bust' the wrong way. But counting chickens before they hatch....let's actually score something first. Yeah the 18z GFS rolls out the medieval torture equipment offering the iron bull or the rack 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 12 hours ago, RedSky said: Yeah the 18z GFS rolls out the medieval torture equipment offering the iron bull or the rack Well at least you had options... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Cloudy and very mild for mid January today with highs in the upper 40's. A rainy day on tap tomorrow with up to 3/4 inches of rain possible. We chill down to closer but still above normal temps for the weekend with the chance of snow arriving later Sunday quickly changing to rain. Another chance of at least some wintry weather is possible later next Wednesday. Our record high for today is a springlike 66 degrees today back in 1973. The record low was 4 below zero from 1994. Record precipitation is the 1.15" from 1915. Our daily snow record is the 6" today in 1930. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 14 hours ago, RedSky said: Yeah the 18z GFS rolls out the medieval torture equipment offering the iron bull or the rack I dont think it is a total head fake and I'm certain we get extremely close on a few chances if not cash-in finally....but maybe your punt won't look bad by the time we get to Valentines Day-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 13 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: The record low was 4 below zero from 1994. Record precipitation is the 1.15" from 1915. Our daily snow record is the 6" today in 1930. One stat that is interesting to note is that week in 1994 was considered one of the coldest on record around the state. I even saw this from 5 years ago about this same period of January in 1994 regarding Central PA - https://www.pennlive.com/news/2018/01/think_its_been_cold_in_central.html But as an additional note, January 19, 1994 and KPHL's -5F, was the last time that location registered a below zero temp - http://www.climate.psu.edu/data/city_information/index.php?city=phl&page=mae&type=big7 So if that holds through this year and into next, it will be 30 years since the city proper had a below zero low (and since that time, it has gotten close - basically single digits but not at or below 0F). As an obs, it's been a somewhat unsettled morning (had heard on KYW that there was quite a bit of fog along I-95 very early this morning although I didn't see any here), but it is currently partly sunny and 45 with dp up quite a bit from earlier in the week at 42. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 21 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: One stat that is interesting to note is that week in 1994 was considered one of the coldest on record around the state. I even saw this from 5 years ago about this same period of January in 1994 regarding Central PA - https://www.pennlive.com/news/2018/01/think_its_been_cold_in_central.html But as an additional note, January 19, 1994 and KPHL's -5F, was the last time that location registered a below zero temp - http://www.climate.psu.edu/data/city_information/index.php?city=phl&page=mae&type=big7 So if that holds through this year and into next, it will be 30 years since the city proper had a below zero low (and since that time, it has gotten close - basically single digits but not at or below 0F). As an obs, it's been a somewhat unsettled morning (had heard on KYW that there was quite a bit of fog along I-95 very early this morning although I didn't see any here), but it is currently partly sunny and 45 with dp up quite a bit from earlier in the week at 42. Of note on January 19, 1994 the low at Coatesville was 11 below zero the high temperature only made it to 1 degree below zero - this is the only time since 1894 that the high temperature stayed below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 The WXSIM is on board with a major snowstorm only 1 week away!! Book it!! Wednesday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Patchy light fog. A mix of snow, sleet, and rain likely in the morning, then a mix of snow and rain likely in the afternoon. High 36. Wind chill around 27. Wind northeast around 8 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the morning, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 6 to 10 inches. Maximum snow level 100 feet above ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 4 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Of note on January 19, 1994 the low at Coatesville was 11 below zero the high temperature only made it to 1 degree below zero - this is the only time since 1894 that the high temperature stayed below zero. That was the year of ice storms too! I remember having to get to 30th St. Station to go on a work trip to Baltimore during the aftermath of one of the January ice storms. It ended up that I-76 was closed for 8 hours right after I decided not to go that way to get to the station. The area had run out of road salt and the store shelves were empty of any halite or equivalent. I was actually able to find some down in Baltimore where they just had rain at the time, and brought a couple bags back in my luggage. lol I found Ray's page with data for a snow/ice storm during this period (Jan. 17 - 18) in 1994 - http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/17-Jan-94.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 I was living in KofP at the time and remember it was pouring rain and 21 degrees.....I was going out every hour to chop ice off my car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 12z ICON starts off this afternoon’s model suite with a bang. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, ChescoWx said: I was living in KofP at the time and remember it was pouring rain and 21 degrees.....I was going out every hour to chop ice off my car My mother had an old cedar tree between her house and her neighbor's house in the front (it was originally planted on their side). It was at least 30ft tall and the whole thing uprooted and fell over thanks to the ice load. The trunk/branches extended out into the street, past the parking lane, and about halfway into a street lane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 28 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: 12z ICON starts off this afternoon’s model suite with a bang. While waiting for the 12z to get to that time frame (almost there), the 6z GFS has that as a RedSky cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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