Birds~69 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 9 hours ago, JTA66 said: Ch10 guy is talking about how much sunlight we’re gaining each day. Winter’s over baby!! Seems like all the networks bring this up at one point or another. And in 5 days they'll probably mention avg daily highs are increasing... https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/philadelphia/pennsylvania/united-states/uspa1276 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 12 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Seems like all the networks bring this up at one point or another. And in 5 days they'll probably mention avg daily highs are increasing... https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/philadelphia/pennsylvania/united-states/uspa1276 Could be because by around 1/11/23, the sunrise finally reversed to occurring earlier (sunset had already shifted to happening later after the solstice as part of the parallax), so the day length is increasing a little faster now- https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/philadelphia?month=1&year=2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 47 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: The news keeps getting better...lol. The replies in the tweet take 2 sides. Weenies hoping he's wrong/bust and people relieved their heating bills will be lower. The true die hards are the weenies who cares less about heating bills and want winter weather...God bless them. 33F/super sunny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 50 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Could be because by around 1/11/23, the sunrise finally reversed to occurring earlier (sunset had already shifted to happening later after the solstice as part of the parallax), so the day length is increasing a little faster now- https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/philadelphia?month=1&year=2023 By the end of the month length of daylight really starts increasing. 2+min per day...pretty much 15min/week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 1 hour ago, ChescoWx said: I totally agree with this and the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific entire basin, Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico say Ridge ON!!! Our weather pattern in the United States is tied to the Above normal sea surface temperatures near Japan north central Pacific... and Europe's lack of snow is tied to the above normal sea surface temperatures up and down the East coast of the United States right on out into the Atlantic. I have noticed anyone east, east-northeast, or northeast of these warm bodies of water have experienced above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall. It makes sense to me for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 I love this can't stop watching. Guess this is where we need to go; at least for this year anways. Downtown Truckee | Tahoetopia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 18 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I totally agree with this and the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific entire basin, Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico say Ridge ON!!! Our weather pattern in the United States is tied to the Above normal sea surface temperatures near Japan north central Pacific... and Europe's lack of snow is tied to the above normal sea surface temperatures up and down the East coast of the United States right on out into the Atlantic. I have noticed anyone east, east-northeast, or northeast of these warm bodies of water have experienced above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall. It makes sense to me for sure. Someone once said, "The Pacific sends us our weather, the Atlantic tells it what to do once it gets here". My concern is even if we do sort out the Pac, we still have to deal with the +AMO. It's nothing new, but the warm pool to our north east around the Gulf of Maine is throwing an extra wrench into things. It would be helpful if we had some coastals or nor'easters to take some heat out of the Atlantic. But I guess this is all part of the feedback loop -- warm Atlantic = ridge, which = storms cutting to our north west, which = no coastals to churn up the waters, which = ridge...and on it goes. No, I'm not part of the "it's-never-going-to-snow-again" crowd. But I do think it will take time (years?) to sort it out. I mean, even if we do get a Nino next year, they tend to suppress tropical activity in the Atlantic which leads to, you guessed it, a warm ocean for 2023-24. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 4th and 39....hail Mary, punt, or a fake punt? Let's take a TV timeout and talk it over. @RedSky what say you? @Birds~69? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Ray Finkle doubles with punt duty, warming up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 33 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Someone once said, "The Pacific sends us our weather, the Atlantic tells it what to do once it gets here". My concern is even if we do sort out the Pac, we still have to deal with the +AMO. It's nothing new, but the warm pool to our north east around the Gulf of Maine is throwing an extra wrench into things. It would be helpful if we had some coastals or nor'easters to take some heat out of the Atlantic. But I guess this is all part of the feedback loop -- warm Atlantic = ridge, which = storms cutting to our north west, which = no coastals to churn up the waters, which = ridge...and on it goes. No, I'm not part of the "it's-never-going-to-snow-again" crowd. But I do think it will take time (years?) to sort it out. I mean, even if we do get a Nino next year, they tend to suppress tropical activity in the Atlantic which leads to, you guessed it, a warm ocean for 2023-24. Right on with my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 44 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 4th and 39....hail Mary, punt, or a fake punt? Let's take a TV timeout and talk it over. @RedSky what say you? @Birds~69? Watching the Buf/Mia game in Buf on 1/15 and the high is 30F/balmy (26F now) w/light winds during peak cold time of year. That's how I know something is not right. Easily could be single digits/below zero... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 this what I really think how the pattern will develop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 * Punt away* There were some positive glimmers earlier in the week but it's turned into January is toast. Little reason to see why February offers redemption other then finally scoring some 2-4" advisory event that results in two billion tons of road salt. Maybe possibly we luck out on some 2006/2016 thing but who's counting on that. One slight hope that remains is that February torch MJO 3 progression doesn't mean much the MJO forecasts have been as bad as everything else. Now March might rock, there's some evidence for this but that's spring damn it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Bingo bango Euro snows us 1/23 and setting up a biggie late month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Full sun day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 5 hours ago, RedSky said: Bingo bango Euro snows us 1/23 and setting up a biggie late month You punt and models start showing snow. Happens every time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 Hail Mary time.....4th down. LFG!!! Still time on the clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You punt and models start showing snow. Happens every time. One op run, she's going north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 getting closer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Most spots across the county dropped into the lower 20's this morning. Tonight should be the last below freezing temps until Saturday morning. A couple chances of some rain first tomorrow night and then rain is likely by Thursday. Overall looks like between 0.50" and 1.00" of rain are possible by Friday. There are signs of a change in the weather patterns which may get folks talking about some snow potential as we close out the month of January. The record high for today is 61 degrees set in 1932. The record low is 10 below zero set today in 1982. Our daily precipitation record is 1.71" from 1924. The daily snow record is the 10.0" of snow that fell today in 1945. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Per that well respected meteorologist "Jan 20. End of California Deluge pattern. Meanwhile winter coming back big time for the US Buckle up. Major winter storm plains this week, likely first accumulating snow I-95 corridor next. Bottom line" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 12z GFS assumed the position.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 29 minutes ago, RedSky said: 12z GFS assumed the position.. With how this winter has played out, no doubt that this will be close to final result. I say this half kidding but we are on a serious losing streak in this area and hard to be optimistic until we get an unexpected win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 12z Gfs just a dumpster fire 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 So you think the 1st 15 days of the year have been warm? You are correct this is the 5th warmest first half of January since 1894. The top 10 warmest are below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 The Bastardi Storm incoming - lock it up!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/15/2023 at 1:24 PM, Albedoman said: this what I really think how the pattern will develop every GFS model run fakes this or that. This afternoons Euro run is trying to spit out something but it cannot get its act together. Lets face it, when the Euro and Nam both agree at 3-5 days, then we have something, otherwise every model run fits this meme in this shitty pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 21 hours ago, RedSky said: Full sun day! wow, the planet Mars had a sunny day too. Its a shame we are now comparing the two for the amount of sun we have received this month a rarity indeed. https://www.itemfix.com/v?t=5e0ewn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 46F/sunny I miss the clouds...I want them back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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