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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread


Ralph Wiggum
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9 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Ch10 guy is talking about how much sunlight we’re gaining each day. Winter’s over baby!! :sun:

Seems like all the networks bring this up at one point or another. And in 5 days they'll probably mention avg daily highs are increasing...

https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/philadelphia/pennsylvania/united-states/uspa1276

 

davg.jpg

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12 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Seems like all the networks bring this up at one point or another. And in 5 days they'll probably mention avg daily highs are increasing...

https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/philadelphia/pennsylvania/united-states/uspa1276

 

davg.jpg

Could be because by around 1/11/23, the sunrise finally reversed to occurring earlier (sunset had already shifted to happening later after the solstice as part of the parallax), so the day length is increasing a little faster now- https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/philadelphia?month=1&year=2023

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47 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

 

The news keeps getting better...lol.

The replies in the tweet take 2 sides. Weenies hoping he's wrong/bust and people relieved their heating bills will be lower. The true die hards are the weenies who cares less about heating bills and want winter weather...God bless them.

33F/super sunny

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50 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Could be because by around 1/11/23, the sunrise finally reversed to occurring earlier (sunset had already shifted to happening later after the solstice as part of the parallax), so the day length is increasing a little faster now- https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/philadelphia?month=1&year=2023

By the end of the month length of daylight really starts increasing. 2+min per day...pretty much 15min/week.  

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1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

 

I totally agree with this and the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific entire basin, Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico say Ridge ON!!!  Our weather pattern in the United States is tied to the Above normal sea surface temperatures near Japan north central Pacific... and Europe's lack of snow is tied to the above normal sea surface temperatures up and down the East coast of the United States right on out into the Atlantic. I have noticed anyone east, east-northeast, or northeast of these warm bodies of water have experienced above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall.  It makes sense to me for sure. 

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18 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I totally agree with this and the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific entire basin, Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico say Ridge ON!!!  Our weather pattern in the United States is tied to the Above normal sea surface temperatures near Japan north central Pacific... and Europe's lack of snow is tied to the above normal sea surface temperatures up and down the East coast of the United States right on out into the Atlantic. I have noticed anyone east, east-northeast, or northeast of these warm bodies of water have experienced above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall.  It makes sense to me for sure. 

Someone once said, "The Pacific sends us our weather, the Atlantic tells it what to do once it gets here". My concern is even if we do sort out the Pac, we still have to deal with the +AMO. It's nothing new, but the warm pool to our north east around the Gulf of Maine is throwing an extra wrench into things.

It would be helpful if we had some coastals or nor'easters to take some heat out of the Atlantic. But I guess this is all part of the feedback loop -- warm Atlantic = ridge, which = storms cutting to our north west, which = no coastals to churn up the waters, which = ridge...and on it goes.

No, I'm not part of the "it's-never-going-to-snow-again" crowd. But I do think it will take time (years?) to sort it out. I mean, even if we do get a Nino next year, they tend to suppress tropical activity in the Atlantic which leads to, you guessed it, a warm ocean for 2023-24.

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33 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Someone once said, "The Pacific sends us our weather, the Atlantic tells it what to do once it gets here". My concern is even if we do sort out the Pac, we still have to deal with the +AMO. It's nothing new, but the warm pool to our north east around the Gulf of Maine is throwing an extra wrench into things.

It would be helpful if we had some coastals or nor'easters to take some heat out of the Atlantic. But I guess this is all part of the feedback loop -- warm Atlantic = ridge, which = storms cutting to our north west, which = no coastals to churn up the waters, which = ridge...and on it goes.

No, I'm not part of the "it's-never-going-to-snow-again" crowd. But I do think it will take time (years?) to sort it out. I mean, even if we do get a Nino next year, they tend to suppress tropical activity in the Atlantic which leads to, you guessed it, a warm ocean for 2023-24.

Right on with my thinking. 

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44 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

4th and 39....hail Mary, punt, or a fake punt? Let's take a TV timeout and talk it over. @RedSky what say you? @Birds~69?

Watching the Buf/Mia game in Buf on 1/15 and the high is 30F/balmy (26F now) w/light winds during peak cold time of year. That's how I know something is not right. Easily could be single digits/below zero...

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* Punt away*

There were some positive glimmers earlier in the week but it's turned into January is toast. Little reason to see why February offers redemption other then finally scoring some 2-4" advisory event that results in two billion tons of road salt. Maybe possibly we luck out on some 2006/2016 thing but who's counting on that. One slight hope that remains is that February torch MJO 3 progression doesn't mean much the MJO forecasts have been as bad as everything else. 

Now March might rock, there's some evidence for this but that's spring damn it.

 

 

 

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Most spots across the county dropped into the lower 20's this morning. Tonight should be the last below freezing temps until Saturday morning. A couple chances of some rain first tomorrow night and then rain is likely by Thursday. Overall looks like between 0.50" and 1.00" of rain are possible by Friday. There are signs of a change in the weather patterns which may get folks talking about some snow potential as we close out the month of January.
The record high for today is 61 degrees set in 1932. The record low is 10 below zero set today in 1982. Our daily precipitation record is 1.71" from 1924. The daily snow record is the 10.0" of snow that fell today in 1945.
image.png.8a3b5a5082f0dbbf4464933684cbcfbd.png
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On 1/15/2023 at 1:24 PM, Albedoman said:

this what I really think how the pattern will develop

 

r/Patriots - Pretty much sums up that fake punt

 

every GFS model run fakes this or that. This afternoons  Euro run is trying to spit out something but it cannot get its act together. Lets face it, when the Euro and Nam both agree at 3-5 days, then we have something, otherwise  every model run fits this meme in this shitty pattern. 

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