JTA66 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 19 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: If I'm reading this right, rest of Jan is shot. Beginning of Feb is shot. Mid to late Feb maybe? And March blowtorch. Doesn't sound all that good... 51F/Cloudy Agreed! "...cross-polar flow is a possibility..." "It might take the East Coast cities a while to get involved..." "...will get in on the winter action at some point." "...much milder March." (Milder than Jan??) Sounds like LC is saying we could, might, possibly get a 10-14 day window at some point...maybe...if things work out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I don't think anyone can say with absolute certainty. Models are struggling 7 days out still. I don't see a shut the blinds pattern at all on the horizon, at least based on overall ens means. So we should still have chances going forward. Problem is, we haven't cashed-in on any chances so far. The SSWE that all models are now showing may have some implications as well. If we get a single 1-2" storm, I think most would take it at this point. Yeah, I understand. I was kinda joking. Actually Larry mentioning a much milder March surprised me the most. Easily take the 1-2" thing... 51F/Windy aaaannnndddd it's cloudy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2023 Author Share Posted January 13, 2023 12z gfs isn't far off from a trackable event for the 19th/20th. I would rate it as low probability right now, but a few shifts S of the HP or track of the slp and maybe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2023 Author Share Posted January 13, 2023 Good pass with the ULL...burst of snow on the back end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2023 Author Share Posted January 13, 2023 Better look for the 22nd/23rd wave as well. Colder overall and farther E with the LP. All we can take away for now is there's a chance next week. Albeit it doesn't have tons of support. But beats talking upper 50s, cloudy and thunder in mid January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 12z gfs isn't far off from a trackable event for the 19th/20th. I would rate it as low probability right now, but a few shifts S of the HP or track of the slp and maybe: Nice strong HP in a place where we want it, in late January, and it's still too warm for 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 GEFS not pretty long range with deep California troughing resuming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2023 Author Share Posted January 13, 2023 35 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Nice strong HP in a place where we want it, in late January, and it's still too warm for 95 I wonder how a deep snowpack in Canada and to our North would have affected things this winter?? Seems those areas have had an historically LOW and late snowpack. It all ties in but I wonder to what extent that lack of snow-cover has hurt us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2023 Author Share Posted January 13, 2023 23 minutes ago, RedSky said: GEFS not pretty long range with deep California troughing resuming GFS and GEFS have quite the SSWE with the SPV shrinking and splitting completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Of note the average snow for the Western Burbs of Philly in Chester County is 19.4" from January 12 - February 28th - the EURO average on the weeklies still shows continuing below normal snowfall but does at least show some snow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Cloudy and 41F, day after day after day Ground is a mud lovers dream. Going to be tracking the clouds closely the next three days, it's come down to tracking cloud performance in winter 2023. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 38. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 41. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. M.L.King Day Sunny, with a high near 44. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Temps dipping quick, 41F. Doom and gloom skies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Cloudy and 41F, day after day after day Ground is a mud lovers dream. Going to be tracking the clouds closely the next three days, it's come down to tracking cloud performance in winter 2023. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 38. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 41. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. M.L.King Day Sunny, with a high near 44. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Tomorrow will be the closest thing to winter we've experience in a while. Temps in the 30s, windy and hopefully more clouds than sun. Big cloudy fan here... 36F/Cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 I may he speculating but hear me out: 2016 was a pretty memorable year in this AOR with the big blizzard during the end of January. Preceding that was something else unique; Extra Tropical Cyclone Alex. Reason I bring this up is because the LP system spinning up off the coast has tropical cyclone characteristics (so Ive read). Timing around these events is also very similar. Jan 13-15 2016 and Jan 20-22 2016. This is all just observation, superstition, whatever.. BUT even I can understand that Wx follows patterns and there a reason analogs are always brought up. So, could history repeat itself? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 In all my years 15-20 yrs tracking models on the internet, I have never seen the GFSGEm and even the Euro so screwed up as it is right now in showing snow totals for our area at the end of the runs. Absolutely no confidence in anything over 5 days. The last 2-5 days model runs , the 12Z says 12+ and then the 18Z comes back and says zippo. Then the 0Z says 4" and the 6Z comes back with zilcho again. Yes I like snow but I also like rain. The primary rain events appear to be doing the same thing as well now. I guess I would say if nothing pans out between the 23rd and the end of the month for a major snow event, I will be writing off this winter. Yes I know Feb is our snowiest month but I cannot possibly see any consistent pattern developing on the LR in Feb with these models so wishy washy. I want to be optimistic but dam GFS/GEM and Euro throw me a bone and show me 6+ inches of snow in at least 48 hours worth of runs. Sorry for the rant guys but this is getting plain ridiculous to even look at the models over three days looking for LR patterns to develop when we cannot even get consistency from run to run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Looky there, below freezing... 29F/Breezy aaaannnndddd cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2023 Author Share Posted January 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Looky there, below freezing... 29F/Breezy aaaannnndddd cloudy And cloudy. One other note, aside from a brief window late Jan/early Feb....virtually all modeling is now in agreement for a raging SER and torch Feb before we enter a convoluted and BN March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: And cloudy. One other note, aside from a brief window late Jan/early Feb....virtually all modeling is now in agreement for a raging SER and torch Feb before we enter a convoluted and BN March. This winter has been a disaster. I've given up. I expect anything to be a minimum event. The long term models have been a mess as far as accuracy. Following the Birds and the Phils just signed Hoskins for another year. Lights still up/on...all good. 30F/Cloudy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2023 Author Share Posted January 14, 2023 13 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: This winter has been a disaster. I've given up. I expect anything to be a minimum event. The long term models have been a mess as far as accuracy. Following the Birds and the Phils just signed Hoskins for another year. Lights still up/on...all good. 30F/Cloudy Super happy to hear they resigned Hoskins. He makes his mistakes but I always feel he came in clutch. Not one of the Bobby Abreu types that would hit a home run when they were already winning by 8 runs. 6z GFS reflects the late Jan window with a weak overrunning reflection and deep CAD signature. We all know it will probably flip and end up sunny and mid 50s but we can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 252 days until fall 2023. As we Philly sports fans are used to saying, “There’s always next year.” 29F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 41 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: This winter has been a disaster. I've given up. I expect anything to be a minimum event. The long term models have been a mess as far as accuracy. Following the Birds and the Phils just signed Hoskins for another year. Lights still up/on...all good. 30F/Cloudy It's my fault, guys--I did a stupid thing and bought a fancy-pants, new snow blower last fall. I'm so, so sorry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 It is snowing and 33 degrees in Sea Isle City this morning..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Some very light flurries now falling here in East Nantmeal temp at low for the day at 28.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: This winter has been a disaster. I've given up. I expect anything to be a minimum event. The long term models have been a mess as far as accuracy. Following the Birds and the Phils just signed Hoskins for another year. Lights still up/on...all good. 30F/Cloudy Wow. Didn't expect you to so soon! I did make it up to 55 yesterday before the cool down. Had a low of 30 this morning and it's currently overcast and 31. CPC had pretty much been honkin' at the above normal temps and norm precip at least from their Dec. 15 outlook but that might be a CA miss if the spigot doesn't shut off on the west coast all of a sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 A few light flurries have been seen here in East Nantmeal this AM. Today will be mainly cloudy with limited sun. Our temps will struggle to get above freezing especially along the higher ridges in western spots of chesco. Today will be our first below normal day of the year. However, by tomorrow will return to normal to just above temps which will continue for the rest of the upcoming week. Our next chance of rain arrives on Tuesday AM....if it arrives early enough we may see a touch of freezing rain. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs approaching 50 degrees. Cooler weather is on tap to close out the week. The record high for today is 73 degrees set in 1932. The record low for today is also the coldest temperature ever recorded in Chester County of 19 degrees below zero - today back in 1912. Of note Phoenixville's all-time record low is also 19 below zero which was recorded on January 22, 1961. West Chester's all-time low reading was the 16 below zero that was twice observed both on January 22, 1984 and February 10, 1934. Record precipitation for today is the 1.78" that fell in 1921. Our daily snow record is the 14.3" that fell today way back in 1910. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 There is no partly to today's cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Little something something out there....mainly NJ. 30F/Aaaannndddd it's cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 I have to wait 50,000 more years to see a green comet due to the clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Roughly every 72 hours through the GFS run there is a cutter lol, yeah there has never been any season as awful as this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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