The Iceman Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Also, has sort if a 2014ish look to the longwave pattern if I remember that season correctly. Had the overrunning pattern and it locked in most of the winter. Exactly what it reminds me of as well. -EPO/-AO/+NAO. It's a solid pattern as long as you are set up south of the boundary. 2014 produced high end WWA/low end WSW events over and over again and even the cutters were thumps to rain. Not good for high end events but I think most would enjoy a 2-3 week period of multiple 3-6" type storms over one and done anyway. Just want that ridge out west to set up a bit further east so that we are S of the boundary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 Also, has sort if a 2014ish look to the longwave pattern if I remember that season correctly. Had the overrunning pattern and it locked in most of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Exactly what it reminds me of as well. -EPO/-AO/+NAO. It's a solid pattern as long as you are set up south of the boundary. 2014 produced high end WWA/low end WSW events over and over again and even the cutters were thumps to rain. Not good for high end events but I think most would enjoy a 2-3 week period of multiple 3-6" type storms over one and done anyway. Just want that ridge out west to set up a bit further east so that we are S of the boundary. That western ridge is what concerns me as well. Makes sense to be displaced to the left unfortunately as that also fits this repeating pattern progression. Was/am hoping this go round we have climo on our side vs early Dec and late Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Euro looks like it might want to do something @ 240hrs. Hey, IT'S UNDER 300 HOURS!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Yeah that something is snow quick to 33F rain N&W and I95 east spiking into the 40's with no stout high pressure. Lucky indeed it's ten days away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Yeah that something is snow quick to 33F rain N&W and I95 east spiking into the 40's with no stout high pressure. Lucky indeed it's ten days away lol Reality is snow quick to 33f rain is State College to Scranton I-95 rain and spiking into the 50's and 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Reality is snow quick to 33f rain is State College to Scranton I-95 rain and spiking into the 50's and 60's. Eh not so sure about that we should at least be making the move late month to a colder rain 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Continued positive signs the EPS has the gargantuan west coast troughing gone and replaced with ridging by day 7 Knowing our luck the pattern change will be cold and dry as the Pacific juice factory shuts off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 17 minutes ago, RedSky said: Continued positive signs the EPS has the gargantuan west coast troughing gone and replaced with ridging by day 7 Knowing our luck the pattern change will be cold and dry as the Pacific juice factory shuts off You know as well as I do 1 of 2 things will happen. A) whatever can go wrong WILL go wrong....whether that be a displaced ridge axis, badly timed SER flex, etc. Or we do the complete opposite and enter an epic window of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Heavier rain moving in. Even some lightning. I think I've seen more lightning this winter than last summer. 54.8F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Well after a 36 low this morning and 40s most of the day, was surprised at the mid-50s high (56) before round 2 of light rain came in. It had a spring feel to it and I know some shrubs nearby (star magnolia) have budded and with some blooms as well. Had 0.03" rain earlier before the sun had come out and then a passing heavier little band blew past about 15 minutes ago, giving me another 0.06" (0.09" total so far today). Also now getting some convection being picked up by the lightning detector. Currently light rain and 52 with dp 48. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 Thunder and lightning here in Ivyland. Your typical mid January evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Thunder and lightning here in Ivyland. Your typical mid January evening Yea some pretty good convective cells moving NE. Yea all normal for January carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Thundering here with a batch of heavy rain/storms moving in from the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 The story of Winter 2022-23 in the eastern U.S. so far. More thunder than snow in Philadelphia. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Precip moved through here rather quick. No thunder/lightning. Another batch out by state college... 52F/Cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Don't know if it's a crappy webcam/condensation on the lens or foggy as hell in PSU. Beaver St...press play/live cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 35 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Don't know if it's a crappy webcam/condensation on the lens or foggy as hell in PSU. Beaver St...press play/live cam. They have the right idea, keeps those lights up till it snows, lol. Topped off our tree tonight, different string of lights, but it's ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: They have the right idea, keeps those lights up till it snows, lol. Topped off our tree tonight, different string of lights, but it's ready. You may have to leave those lights up until next December if we don’t get a pattern shake up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Had a couple thunders. Thundershowers like this in January 2006 led to the February blizzard. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2023 Author Share Posted January 13, 2023 50 minutes ago, RedSky said: Had a couple thunders. Thundershowers like this in January 2006 led to the February blizzard. That was a good one. I have video of me and my wife and 2 dogs taking a Jebwalk as that deformation band cranked overhead. And back then, those videocameras werent small enough for your pockets. It's a wonder I didn't destroy the thing and have actual footage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: They have the right idea, keeps those lights up till it snows, lol. Topped off our tree tonight, different string of lights, but it's ready. Looks like drunken college students arranged the lights on the tree...buy hey, it's the effort that counts. And still being up is a bonus. 51F/Cloudy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 3 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Don't know if it's a crappy webcam/condensation on the lens or foggy as hell in PSU. Beaver St...press play/live cam. Gotta be fog and rain remember grounds there may be a bit colder than around here and warmer air is flooding the area for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 2 hours ago, RedSky said: Had a couple thunders. Thundershowers like this in January 2006 led to the February blizzard. dynamics breeds more dynamics.... I cannot disagree that we may see wild stuff between now and March. Something is going to give as the sun angle increases and causes more in the way of temperature gradients soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Line moving E w/a good batch of precip... 55F here, Dover DE at 61F and 33mph gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 53F/dark clouds/breezy *Friday the 13th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 A few showers will pass through this morning as a cold front has just crossed the county. We have picked up 0.23" of rain since yesterday. Temperatures today will fall from our 2am high temp of 52.3 degrees we have now fallen to 46.7. We should see temps falling below freezing by 8pm this evening. Tomorrow will be our first below normal day of the year an first since December 27th. Tomorrow will also be windy. Temps should once again moderate back to above normal by Monday with our next chance of rain arriving Tuesday. The record high for today is 68 degrees set back in 1932. Our record low is the 11 degrees below zero reading from 1912. Daily precipitation record is 1.34" and our daily snow record is the 6.0" that fell today in 1964. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 From Larry Cosgrove "When you consider that a cross-polar flow is a possibility in this configuration (likely to repeat in mid/late February), you can see the possibilities here. It might take the East Coast cities a while to get involved with the cAk domain, but I am confident that the Interstate 95 corridor will get in on the winter action at some point. The analog forecasts still call for a much milder March. But before we get there, may you live in exciting times." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 18 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: From Larry Cosgrove "When you consider that a cross-polar flow is a possibility in this configuration (likely to repeat in mid/late February), you can see the possibilities here. It might take the East Coast cities a while to get involved with the cAk domain, but I am confident that the Interstate 95 corridor will get in on the winter action at some point. The analog forecasts still call for a much milder March. But before we get there, may you live in exciting times." If I'm reading this right, rest of Jan is shot. Beginning of Feb is shot. Mid to late Feb maybe? And March blowtorch. Doesn't sound all that good... 51F/Cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2023 Author Share Posted January 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: If I'm reading this right, rest of Jan is shot. Beginning of Feb is shot. Mid to late Feb maybe? And March blowtorch. Doesn't sound all that good... 51F/Cloudy I don't think anyone can say with absolute certainty. Models are struggling 7 days out still. I don't see a shut the blinds pattern at all on the horizon, at least based on overall ens means. So we should still have chances going forward. Problem is, we haven't cashed-in on any chances so far. The SSWE that all models are now showing may have some implications as well. If we get a single 1-2" storm, I think most would take it at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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