RedSky Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Just need this ^^^ threat window to hold thru Jan 15 so we can keep @RedSky from punting. I think he said the 15th was his punt date if no trackable events on the models. Hang in there. The windows arent big but there will be some possibilities here and there after mid month. First that is going to end up being a Lake Superior blizzard cuz it's the GFS Second I take into consideration all factors beyond trackable, possible SSWE, 30 day long range outlooks, MJO, fading or not fading Nina. Worked well the last two years holding onto the ball, not great snow numbers last years but still had 12-13" more inches of snow and seasonable cold. 2020 punted it into the stratosphere and never looked back. Have to say this year is looking difficult going to need a timeout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Lined up like ducks on the pond one juiced Pacific system after the next. Endless clouds and cold rain only Florida and Mexico as refuge. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=ir Cold fail December, terrible on every level January, February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 hour ago, RedSky said: First that is going to end up being a Lake Superior blizzard cuz it's the GFS Second I take into consideration all factors beyond trackable, possible SSWE, 30 day long range outlooks, MJO, fading or not fading Nina. Worked well the last two years holding onto the ball, not great snow numbers last years but still had 12-13" more inches of snow and seasonable cold. 2020 punted it into the stratosphere and never looked back. Have to say this year is looking difficult going to need a timeout. Well, it's 3rd and 35 still. Need a bigtime play over the next 2 weeks. If not, then we decide what to do on 4th down as Feb begins. Let's take that timeout and talk things over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 41F, little breezy aaaannnndddd it's cloudy once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Remember back in December people were saying we needed a SER cause the blocking would be SO strong we’d be dealing with suppression without it? Yeah, those were the days. 42F, clouds rolling in ahead of our next lakes cutter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 The endless roll of lake cutters is really amazing.....I remain however a big believer in all things equaling out in most years. I suspect the winter is over crew will be proven wrong with at least a couple wintry events and if one threads the needle....spots like PHL that average in the low 20's for annual snow could be 75% of normal for the year. For us N and W folks that average in the mid-30's for annual snowfall....I suspect a well below normal year is increasingly likely. By the way thanks to all of you for not killing me over my winter forecast!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 26 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: The endless roll of lake cutters is really amazing.....I remain however a big believer in all things equaling out in most years. I suspect the winter is over crew will be proven wrong with at least a couple wintry events and if one threads the needle....spots like PHL that average in the low 20's for annual snow could be 75% of normal for the year. For us N and W folks that average in the mid-30's for annual snowfall....I suspect a well below normal year is increasingly likely. By the way thanks to all of you for not killing me over my winter forecast!! Couldn't agree more Paul. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 It is baffling. If I wasn’t going to NW Maine for a week in February I would be deeply depressed about this weather pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birdbean Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 21 minutes ago, DE2PA said: It is baffling. If I wasn’t going to NW Maine for a week in February I would be deeply depressed about this weather pattern. Went to Park City UT, Jackson Wy and Yellowstone the third week of Oct and ended up seeing over a foot of snow in those places combined. I enjoyed every bit of it knowing snow is so sporadic in our parts. Should have stayed in Park City all winter, they are getting destroyed with snow so far this winter. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 36F/Cloudy Tonights forecast...doesn't get any better than this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 hours ago, Birdbean said: Went to Park City UT, Jackson Wy and Yellowstone the third week of Oct and ended up seeing over a foot of snow in those places combined. I enjoyed every bit of it knowing snow is so sporadic in our parts. Should have stayed in Park City all winter, they are getting destroyed with snow so far this winter. They are all in an extreme drought out that way and they certainly need whatever they can get... although too much runoff is killing CA with no place to store it. After a low of 29, I got up to 44 and it's currently 37 with dp 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 34F/Cloudy Going to be a raw morning w/light rain/drizzle sliding east and temps in the mid 30s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Had a brief mix out this way around 4:30am but 34 now with drizzle, I can take cold and dry but cold and rainy straight up sucks. Let’s hope February and first half of March deliver the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Had a brief mix out this way around 4:30am but 34 now with drizzle, I can take cold and dry but cold and rainy straight up sucks. Let’s hope February and first half of March deliver the goods Pretty sad it's only 1/12 and we're scratching the rest of Jan and rightfully so. At least it's not blow torch/60s and sunny... 36F/light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 31 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Pretty sad it's only 1/12 and we're scratching the rest of Jan and rightfully so. At least it's not blow torch/60s and sunny... 36F/light rain That sounds better than what we have had recently...these cloudy/cool days are just depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 We did have some wet snow overnight that turned to some light rain with 0.05" of liquid falling. Today looks cloudy with some drizzle and more rain later in the day and this evening. We could pick up up to another 0.20" of rain. Today will be the warmest day of the next week with temps possibly reaching 50 degrees. Drying out by tomorrow PM. Much chillier Saturday with our first below normal temp day of the year. Another warming trend begins next week. The record high for today is 64 set in 2020. The record low is 7 degrees from 1981. Daily rain record is the 1.98" that fell in 1983. Our record snow for the day was the 5" that fell today in 1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 40 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Pretty sad it's only 1/12 and we're scratching the rest of Jan There is a threat window around the 23rd still but temps probably still an issue. Maybe we can at least get a Feb 83 or Jan 16 event....one and done....before we exit stage left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Blue Dream said: That sounds better than what we have had recently...these cloudy/cool days are just depressing. Difference of opinion I guess. Sunny and 60 in Jan is depressing to me... 38F/Cloudy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: There is a threat window around the 23rd still but temps probably still an issue. Maybe we can at least get a Feb 83 or Jan 16 event....one and done....before we exit stage left That's my main concern. We can't even (or barely) get below freezing at night. And the ocean temp is toasty... https://seatemperature.info/all/new-jersey-water-temperature.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Pretty soon they will have to change the seasons to the months they actually happen. To further my depression, just ordered heating oil @ $3.999 per gal. UGH! Going to use the electric heat more for now. Rather pay the higher electric bill and covet the oil for next winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 As bad as this winter has been, I can deal with cutter after cutter vs suppression if given the choice. If VA Beach, Norfolk and the Carolinas were getting smoked while we sat high & dry, I'd probably throw a tantum the likes of which would put Ji to shame. 47F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Sun doing it's best to come out and do a song and dance...skies brightening a bit. Meanwhile stuff brewing out by Pitt moving E. Maybe a rumble of thunder w/this? 46F/Clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 Beautiful day! Daffodils are a half inch or more out of the soil and my daylillies are emerging from their long winter dormancy. Wow, Jan 12...earliest I recall seeing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Long range guidance is showing a more favorable winter pattern developing the last week of January. Is it real or a phantom? Need to see it hold and get inside 10 days, just in time for my punt or go for it date.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: Long range guidance is showing a more favorable winter pattern developing the last week of January. Is it real or a phantom? Need to see it hold and get inside 10 days, just in time for my punt or go for it date.. Some astronomy dude in NY sub says we have one chance...Feb 4-6. Maybe a Feb 83 or Jan 16 vibe...MECS then meltoff starts next day is what I got from his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Long range guidance is showing a more favorable winter pattern developing the last week of January. Is it real or a phantom? Need to see it hold and get inside 10 days, just in time for my punt or go for it date.. 3-5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Beautiful day! Daffodils are a half inch or more out of the soil and my daylillies are emerging from their long winter dormancy. Wow, Jan 12...earliest I recall seeing this. A couple birds chirping early morning the other day is all I needed to hear... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 Cherry blossom festival might be around Valentines day this year if things keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Some astronomy dude in NY sub says we have one chance...Feb 4-6. Maybe a Feb 83 or Jan 16 vibe...MECS then meltoff starts next day is what I got from his post. I don't get that vibe at all from the projected pattern in the long range from the ensembles. Looks more like a gradient/overrunning pattern where anything strong will cut but weak lows will ride along the boundary. If the boundary sets up north of us, we are fooked as DT would say but if it sets up S of us we could see several moderate events in quick succession until the pattern breaks down again. I don't really see "the big one" potential then warm up like we had in December. Ensembles show a lot of cold air on our side of the continent late month to work with, it will just depend if it bleeds east enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I don't get that vibe at all from the projected pattern in the long range from the ensembles. Looks more like a gradient/overrunning pattern where anything strong will cut but weak lows will ride along the boundary. If the boundary sets up north of us, we are fooked as DT would say but if it sets up S of us we could see several moderate events in quick succession until the pattern breaks down again. I don't really see "the big one" potential then warm up like we had in December. Ensembles show a lot of cold air on our side of the continent late month to work with, it will just depend if it bleeds east enough. Yes I posted this earlier about the gradient overrunning. I don't hate the look. It's where the progression should take us....things on track still for a backloader. The post you quoted was from that dude in another sub, not my thoughts. That was what he was suggesting....a tiny 2 day window then spring. Again, I tend to disagree with his thinking at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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