E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Gfs doesn’t even have the 2nd storm. This is going to be the time where it actually leads the way despite being a dumpster fire all season long in the mid range.

As always go with the least snowiest solution, in this case the gfs will lead the way.

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z euro step back for our miracle secondary event. Knew that would happen this winter. What can go wrong will go wrong. Must of had sampling issues with that lead shortwave this morning. Still a few members have it, but mainly W NW of city anyway




.

Still plenty of time and more members compared to 12z are further south .

[Ralph Wiggum]

Didn't feel like reposting this entire thing but the pattern progression and move to a less hostile PAC and colder air reestablishing is still on track. Mid Jan forward buckle up:

BN temp regime

 

[ChescoWx]

We have not had a below normal temperature day since 12/27. While most days over the next week should be closer to normal we will still run above normal for the foreseeable future. Rain chances increase by Thursday evening and we should reach the 50's by that day. Clearing skies over the weekend with slightly above normal temps continuing. The models did show a potential low moving up the coast on Saturday with some snow possible...but that for now appears to be staying far enough off shore to continue our snow drought. Through yesterday we are at only 9% of normal snowfall through today. Of course in this area it only takes a couple big storms to get us back to normal. I still remain confident we see a couple snowstorms before we are done with the snow season in early April. Snow geese keep the faith!

The record high for today is 62 degrees from 1950. Our record low is 3 below zero from 1982. Daily rain record is the 1.06" from 2016. The snow record for today is the 9" that fell today in 1954.

[Blue Dream]

18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Didn't feel like reposting this entire thing but the pattern progression and move to a less hostile PAC and colder air reestablishing is still on track. Mid Jan forward buckle up:

BN temp regime

 

Thanks for the optimism Ralph...this winter reminds me of 2019-2020 so far.  Hopefully we can half a decent storm at some point.

[Ralph Wiggum]

22 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

Thanks for the optimism Ralph...this winter reminds me of 2019-2020 so far.  Hopefully we can half a decent storm at some point.

Be patient. Fairly confident a backloaded winter is in the cards. Said this since Nov but growing increasingly confident. Near mid month we should start seeing trackable events modeled but more realistically the best looks should settle in after the 21st.

[Mikeymac5306]

So... Another two weeks? 

 

[JTA66]

1/23 is my towel date, we're about halfway through met winter at that point. If we don't see signs of or have a pattern change underway by then, we're probably looking at a ratter.

So the questions are: does the less hostile looking Pac pattern actually emerge? And if so, does it have staying power? Or is it in-and-out like the December pattern change? Of course, a basic weenie mistake is "pattern change" equals cold & snow. There are plenty of patterns that don't produce. We can go from one shut out pattern to another.

But it's only Jan 10th, so I will remain optimistic for now that we see accumulating snow before the season is over.

34F

[Newman]

2 hours ago, Blue Dream said:

Thanks for the optimism Ralph...this winter reminds me of 2019-2020 so far.  Hopefully we can half a decent storm at some point.

I think I ended with 7" 2019-2020. This winter I'm only at 1.8 so far, and that's from 4 or 5 total "storms" lol. A nice 2 or 3 inch storm would be nice at this point.

[Birds~69]

44 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

1/23 is my towel date, we're about halfway through met winter at that point. If we don't see signs of or have a pattern change underway by then, we're probably looking at a ratter.

So the questions are: does the less hostile looking Pac pattern actually emerge? And if so, does it have staying power? Or is it in-and-out like the December pattern change? Of course, a basic weenie mistake is "pattern change" equals cold & snow. There are plenty of patterns that don't produce. We can go from one shut out pattern to another.

But it's only Jan 10th, so I will remain optimistic for now that we see accumulating snow before the season is over.

34F

Feb 1st and if we don't see signs I would cancel winter completely meaning we can't receive snow any further by contract. In exchange I would want below average summer temps...seems fair.

38F.....aaaaannnnddddd it's cloudy.

[wkd]

So much pessimism in so many of the forums, especially since we are only in the second week of January. I've lived in NJ most of my life and my experience has been that February and the first part of March have had the best chances of snow in this area. Those months may not necessarily have the biggest storms but they seem to have more snow events (especially February).  Don't give up, no matter what the long range models spit out.

[Albedoman]

this is how I feel right now:

 

 

[RedSky]

Hard to believe these originally forecast sunny days are now cloudy today and increasing clouds tomorrow. Sun won't be out in force again until Sunday, maybe.

 

 

[JTA66]

57 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Feb 1st and if we don't see signs I would cancel winter completely meaning we can't receive snow any further by contract. In exchange I would want below average summer temps...seems fair.

38F.....aaaaannnnddddd it's cloudy.

Sign me up!

Again, I'm not Debbing, just trying to be realistic about where we are and may be heading. My limited understanding is this Nina is behaving like a Nino. If it continues to do so, we may do well in the second half of winter. But if the atmosphere reverts back to a Nina-like state, we may be fooked. Just no way of knowing on 1/10.

[The Iceman]

1 hour ago, Newman said:

I think I ended with 7" 2019-2020. This winter I'm only at 1.8 so far, and that's from 4 or 5 total "storms" lol. A nice 2 or 3 inch storm would be nice at this point.

7"?  You did well that winter. I had 1.5". PHL had .3"

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, wkd said:

So much pessimism in so many of the forums, especially since we are only in the second week of January. I've lived in NJ most of my life and my experience has been that February and the first part of March have had the best chances of snow in this area. Those months may not necessarily have the biggest storms but they seem to have more snow events (especially February).  Don't give up, no matter what the long range models spit out.

Exactly. Clear signal for a big time pattern shift across guidance. Pattern progressing as expected mimicking last 2 months' pattern evolution. Won't be long after mid month...buckle up.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, Albedoman said:

this is how I feel right now:

 

 

It started already sir. Was a grueling 2 weeks tho. Now get some skin on them bones....gonna need the insulation soon. 

[The Iceman]

While it's encouraging to see the looks in the long range progress, I want to see it get into the day 5 range and see what the long range looks like then. For all we know, this pattern change could last a week or two and shift back into where we are now. While that's still better than wall to wall pac puke pattern, I'm still skeptical we are in for a backloaded winter. I think it's more likely is a a 1-2 week window where we will have chances to score then we go through the cycle again especially with Nina climo in February.

[Albedoman]

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

While it's encouraging to see the looks in the long range progress, I want to see it get into the day 5 range and see what the long range looks like then. For all we know, this pattern change could last a week or two and shift back into where we are now. While that's still better than wall to wall pac puke pattern, I'm still skeptical we are in for a backloaded winter. I think it's more likely is a a 1-2 week window where we will have chances to score then we go through the cycle again especially with Nina climo in February.

I absolutely agree.  The window opening is very short and every chance of a storm will be thread the needle in our pattern.  The only barn burner for this current crappy pattern is a Mardi Gras special LP forming and riding the southern Apps  and then along the coast for true Miller A. Until the LPs form in the southern Miss Valley/GOM, nothing good will come our way according to the Mardi Gras cat

 

[ChescoWx]

Some may wonder how often have we gone through a January with no measurable snow during the month? Well here in Chester County PA it has not happened in 50 years....but overall it has occurred 6 times including 3 straight January's from 1932 through 1934. The other years a green January has taken place include 1960, 1967 and 1973. Of note that last time in 1973 took place during the only winter season in Chester County PA history that no snow at all fell during the winter. We will not suffer that fate this year as we have already recorded a whopping 0.8" of snow during December!!

[DE2PA]

7 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:We will not suffer that fate this year as we have already recorded a whopping 0.8" of snow during December!!

That’s like TCU celebrating those 7 points they scored against UGA.

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 hours ago, The Iceman said:

While it's encouraging to see the looks in the long range progress, I want to see it get into the day 5 range and see what the long range looks like then. For all we know, this pattern change could last a week or two and shift back into where we are now. While that's still better than wall to wall pac puke pattern, I'm still skeptical we are in for a backloaded winter. I think it's more likely is a a 1-2 week window where we will have chances to score then we go through the cycle again especially with Nina climo in February.

Well, this year has behaved more like a Nino than a Nina, so we have that going for us as we enter deep winter. Whether or not that means Nina flexes it's muscle and we torch in Feb is tbd...but this has been a very strange year wrt enso analog behaviors. I mean, have any major cities from DC-Portland, ME recorded more than a few inches of snow? If that? This can't last forever and eventually it's going to flip for the better. 

[MGorse]

I figured I would share this here.

[KamuSnow]

52 minutes ago, MGorse said:

I figured I would share this here.

Thanks Mike, lol. We decided to put lights on a tree outside (which we hadn't had time to do before the holidays) in order to encourage the snow. Still gotta add some more, but they will look great when it does snow!

[ChescoWx]

Another slightly above normal temperature day across the county today before rain arrives overnight tonight. Mild with rain tomorrow with between 0.25" to 0.50" likely across Chesco. Chillier weather this weekend with Saturday looking like possibly our first below normal day of 2023. Temps will start to trend milder again to start next week.

The record high for today is 67 degrees from 1975. Record low was 5 below zero in 1981. Record precipitation was the 1.19" from 1924 and our daily snow record was the 7.2" that fell today in 1922.

[Birds~69]

11 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

Thanks Mike, lol. We decided to put lights on a tree outside (which we hadn't had time to do before the holidays) in order to encourage the snow. Still gotta add some more, but they will look great when it does snow!

FOX 29 just did a segment on Christmas lights:

41% had some Christmas lights still up

17% had all their Christmas lights still up

You: Just putting Christmas lights up

Me: Christmas lights stay up till the Birds lose/win SB

You/Me: Hope it snows w/Christmas lights up

29F/Sunny

[ChescoWx]

For those hanging on to winter hope - from Larry Cosgrove

"Many of you have gotten used to the rather benign nature of January so far. There is the (usual) talk of "winter cancel", and speculation that spring has already begun. This is, of course, rather unwise. Even with the alterations caused by global warming, winter is still here, lurking in Siberia and northern Canada. And when it returns full force to the lower 48 stats around January 20, my best advice is to be prepared.
What is happening in California is actually the start of the transition process. One of the storms in the sequence is now reforming in the Oklahoma Panhandle, and will pull down modified Arctic air into the Midwest and East Coast for perhaps two days (with thunderstorms along the East Coast, followed by snow showers and squalls around the Great Lakes and Appalachia). But warmth will quickly rebound next week east of the Rocky Mountains.
The last cyclone in the sequence, over the western Pacific Basin, will break up the current pattern. All of the model guidance shows this feature battering California with heavy precipitation (so what else is new....) next Wednesday and Thursday, then redeveloping over southern Colorado. Ten days from now, cold advection into the Great Plains gets going as the low center deepens and heads for the interior Northeast. You will notice changes in the air mass character behind this disturbance, with a shift back to mild/dry West and cold/stormy Central and East for North America."

[DE2PA]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

For those hanging on to winter hope - from Larry Cosgrove

"Many of you have gotten used to the rather benign nature of January so far. There is the (usual) talk of "winter cancel", and speculation that spring has already begun. This is, of course, rather unwise. Even with the alterations caused by global warming, winter is still here, lurking in Siberia and northern Canada. And when it returns full force to the lower 48 stats around January 20, my best advice is to be prepared.
What is happening in California is actually the start of the transition process. One of the storms in the sequence is now reforming in the Oklahoma Panhandle, and will pull down modified Arctic air into the Midwest and East Coast for perhaps two days (with thunderstorms along the East Coast, followed by snow showers and squalls around the Great Lakes and Appalachia). But warmth will quickly rebound next week east of the Rocky Mountains.
The last cyclone in the sequence, over the western Pacific Basin, will break up the current pattern. All of the model guidance shows this feature battering California with heavy precipitation (so what else is new....) next Wednesday and Thursday, then redeveloping over southern Colorado. Ten days from now, cold advection into the Great Plains gets going as the low center deepens and heads for the interior Northeast. You will notice changes in the air mass character behind this disturbance, with a shift back to mild/dry West and cold/stormy Central and East for North America."

Don’t share this in the Mid Atlantic forum. They’re on the verge of a civil war.

[Ralph Wiggum]

LFG!!

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just need this ^^^ threat window to hold thru Jan 15 so we can keep @RedSky from punting. I think he said the 15th was his punt date if no trackable events on the models. Hang in there. The windows arent big but there will be some possibilities here and there after mid month.