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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread


Ralph Wiggum
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2 hours ago, Heisy said:

Anyone notice the euro last night? The OP, control, and EPS all of a sudden now redevelop the ULL. A bunch of members actually give us a snowstorm on the redeveloped storm! This would be a shocking development

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6z GFS ain't buying it and the NBM hasn't taken the bait. :lol:

Currently misty and 37 with dp 37.  Picked up 0.04" in the bucket this morning.

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The sun should return today. We should stay dry and a few degrees above normal (what's new) for most of the week. Temps will rise well into the 40's with rain by Thursday night into Friday. Temps will fall to near normal for next weekend with dry weather.
The record high for today is 68 degrees from 1930. Our record low is 1 below zero from 1970. Daily rain record is the 1.66" from 1964. Daily snow record is the 3.0" from that very cold January of 1977.
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Not a single flake last night. Few rain drops was it.

Looking ahead, not too much interesting thru mid month as our PAC transition is progressing along. But by mid January and the 3rd week of the month we are seeing colder temp anomalies showing up finally. Still thinking the pattern progression is going as modeled maybe a couple days lag than originally pronged. But by the end of all ens means we have a nice pool of BN 850s and 2m temps showing up. And the CFS continues to hammer on BN across much if the US into Feb.eps_T850a_nhem_61-1.thumb.png.891ac82dfe94b1c6475762a0cb5d0032.png

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11 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

12z Euro for Saturday...hmmm.

Let's just leave it there for now.

12z models have trended towards a secondary low developing on the tail end of the trough. The Euro is by far the most aggressive and the CMC and UKMET show a little bit of promise, while the GFS keeps everything well to the north. Not overly enthused about this chance but it’s something to keep an eye on.

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This isn’t a simple synoptic setup. Placing the banding with a developing secondary dealing with multiple pieces of energy in close proximity is tricky. The kind of thing models would have missed completely 20 years ago.  The highest resolution and best physics has the best chance to possible see it and that’s the opp. 

 

2 hours ago, RedSky said:

It's one OP run man ease off lol

 

 

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