penndotguy Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 I think the writing was on the wall in December, it just doesn’t want to snow East of the Apps this year and probably won’t till the backend of winter going into Spring, Nothing scientific just a gut feeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 4 hours ago, DE2PA said: Can I hang out here for a while? The current state of the Mid Atlantic forum makes me want to take a bath with a hair dryer. Toaster bath with Texas toast or pop tarts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Its way too early to cancel winter but I will say it’s pretty eerie how similar this winter is playing out like 2019-2020. Got cold in December but didn’t have the storm tracks so we were warm/wet then cool/dry. PAC air flooded the continent by the end of December into January and we had a lucky c-2” event at the beginning of January then nothing else. Now we have a c-2” event Sunday and nothing on the horizon. Pattern changes were teased in long range for weeks on end but never materialized until mid-late March. We have the models showing hope again now for late month with a workable pattern but given the large scale changes we see in the day 7-10 range right now, it’s impossible to have confidence beyond that. Hopefully things play out better than 19-20 we also got incredibly unlucky a few times that season but the similarities thus far are striking imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Things are looking up the forecast just changed to sunny skies tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 GEFS individual members have quite a few solid hits for our area for the late week system. Alas, the GEFS have not performed well at all lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 CFS says Feb will be rocking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 It's not Buffalo but it's flakes in my forecast Sunday Night Snow likely, mainly after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Things keep improving the new euro is mostly a frontal passage and a day of showers the coastal stays offshore late next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 13 minutes ago, RedSky said: Things keep improving the new euro is mostly a frontal passage and a day of showers the coastal stays offshore late next week. This will be the 3rd time so far since Dec 1 that the LR to 7 days+ showed a major coastal low that ended up being a fropa. Also the 3rd time the 50/50 failed. Atmospheric memory is a real thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Here in Chester County the first 6 days of January were the 2nd warmest start to the year in history. Below is a list of the Top 20 warmest. I have also listed how much snow fell from January through April following those mild starts to the New Year. Normal Chester County snowfall between now and April is 29.7" 6 of the 20 years would end up with above normal snow. 5 more years would be within 5" of normal with 9 ending below normal snowfall. Not sure if it means anything but....I guess I am saying if you love snow - there is hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Think tonight will be the first time I drop below 32F since 12/30 (Day or night). Pretty pathetic since it's Winter... 43F/Overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 hours ago, RedSky said: Things are looking up the forecast just changed to sunny skies tomorrow! Not me. Yours sounds like the Adam Joseph forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Rain/sleet/graupel/snow shower thingy going on, 42F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Rain/sleet/graupel/snow shower thingy going on, 42F. Again, like the other night I don't remember any of this in the forecast today? Once again, our state of weather and forecasting is in chaos after our 60-degree days so Wiggum Rule maybe the storm on Friday pulls a rabbit out of the hat?? I mean some of the models have a good storm track then the lack of cold air??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 44 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Rain/sleet/graupel/snow shower thingy going on, 42F. Same. That was this thing-a-ma-jigger rolling through... 41F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 Hmmm, 18z is a thump to rain late week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 32 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hmmm, 18z is a thump to rain late week. Off topic but I miss the days where we would have rain then to a 2-4/3-6" thump of snow. Never happens anymore... 40F/Cloudy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 NBC10 at 6:20pm...sad, but I'll take it at this point. 40F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 My ski mountain I instruct at is really struggling-- didn't build up enough man made snow in Dec. Mountain is closed today hoping to make snow tonight... --this is no way to pay off my new boots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Think tonight will be the first time I drop below 32F since 12/30 (Day or night). Pretty pathetic since it's Winter... 43F/Overcast I have you beat....no freezing temps since 12/29!! Winter in all it's glory!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2023 Author Share Posted January 8, 2023 Had a 5 min sleet squall earlier in Blue Bell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 56 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: My ski mountain I instruct at is really struggling-- didn't build up enough man made snow in Dec. Mountain is closed today hoping to make snow tonight... --this is no way to pay off my new boots... Easily, will be in the 20s. 39F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Like Snow Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 I'm moving to Florida. At least its warm there with no snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2023 Author Share Posted January 8, 2023 I swear this model was better 7 years ago. Not bad for a 10-day forecast. Absolutely nailed it: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I swear this model was better 7 years ago. Not bad for a 10-day forecast. Absolutely nailed it: Yes it did! Remember? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 For the last couple of runs, the NAM brings another shot of snow through the area Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Yeah, it’s the NAM at range and I haven’t looked to see if it has any support. But given 2023 so far, thought I’d mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2023 Author Share Posted January 8, 2023 It was just 120 hours early on that prog lol re 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2023 Author Share Posted January 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, JTA66 said: For the last couple of runs, the NAM brings another shot of snow through the area Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Yeah, it’s the NAM at range and I haven’t looked to see if it has any support. But given 2023 so far, thought I’d mention it. It also took our snow away for tomorrow night...puts SE PA in the screw zone soooo we toss this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It also took our snow away for tomorrow night...puts SE PA in the screw zone soooo we toss this run RGEM looks a bit better. It will come down to rates and elevation. Paul will jackpot with an inch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2023 Author Share Posted January 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, JTA66 said: RGEM looks a bit better. It will come down to rates and elevation. Paul will jackpot with an inch The icon disagrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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