RedSky Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 The problem is zero blocking and a progressive high to the north. Initially it is cold enough to snow with the track but the high is retreating northeast in the fast flow. The polar vortex is tight and consolidated there is no northern phasing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: The problem is zero blocking and a progressive high to the north. Initially it is cold enough to snow with the track but the high is retreating northeast in the fast flow. The polar vortex is tight and consolidated there is no northern phasing. Ukie has a decent setup...but its the crazy uncle. Still just over a week to go. There will be MANY more changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 It's a bad pattern outside of scoring on some fluky little events like Sunday could be. Need a SSW or the goose is cooked going forward late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ukie has a decent setup...but its the crazy uncle. Still just over a week to go. There will be MANY more changes. Still think this could work out with the right timing to get some kind of thump of snow before a change to rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 34 minutes ago, The Iceman said: The CMC has the low 50 miles off the delmarva and it's still mostly rain SE PA. Antecedent airmass sucks. Not enough cold reestablished in SE Canada yet and zero snowpack most of the Northeast even into SE Canada....and that matters. We should hope for a full phased properly timed dynamic system that can create 850 cold on the NW flank with a proper track. Basically a thread the needle....and we know how that goes. But with a week+ to go, maybe we can morph this into a legit winter storm threat. Maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, RedSky said: It's a bad pattern outside of scoring on some fluky little events like Sunday could be. Need a SSW or the goose is cooked going forward late month. SSWE looks to happen late Jan or early Feb. CfS has plenty of cold next month in Canada and a decent pattern for March....so we will probably get more chances at times both of those months.....of course windows sandwiched in-between warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Last January a decent SSW event the first week perturbed the vortex and Allentown had a top 20 cold month at -5F. Problem was we had a drought pattern and anemic southern jet this area finished with 8.9" from half a dozen nickel and dime systems. This year the polar opposite problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 I mean, we couldn't ask for a much better 850 low pass for our areas than what the gefs mean is showing. It's all textbook tbh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 This pattern married to last years gives ya January 2011 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: I mean, we couldn't ask for a much better 850 low pass for our areas than what the gefs mean is showing. It's all textbook tbh: The problem is that there's just not enough cold air in place nor is there a source to tap into as you said above. Outside of a thread the needle situation or full phase/manufactured cold, this one is going to struggle to snow in SE PA unless we see some big changes to the airmass in the coming days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 to this crappy and hopeful snow event on Monday- this how we all feel about a measly 1-2 in event https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/9907ef03-de46-4bb2-b1e8-b745a53eaa34 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 Euro op is an unmitigated disaster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 12z euro for the 14th system is uglyyyyy. night and day from the GFS/CMC. Looks like it's going to be a straight cutter west of chicago. Probably going to lead the charge again like it did for the Christmas system sadly. Still wants nothing to do with the sunday/monday light event too. True Dr.No style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Euro doing what the GFS showed two days ago when everybody was laughing at it's preposterous solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Euro op is an unmitigated disaster. Taking a break from this hobby for my own sanity. Hopefully we see some flakes Sunday/Monday. I need to take a breather. This winter has been brutal . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Could get a severe outbreak on the ECM though so we have that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Euro doing what the GFS showed two days ago when everybody was laughing at it's preposterous solution It got absolutely schooled with the 50/50 setup. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 What's wrong with the Euro? It only places the low about 700 miles further north than 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Taking a break from this hobby for my own sanity. Hopefully we see some flakes Sunday/Monday. I need to take a breather. This winter has been brutal . You should have chased in CA! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Euro could whiten the ground with hail 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 You should have chased in CA!Can’t afford it right now or I would ha. It’s alright, it will snow again, maybe not this year, but one day…. And the wait will be worth it. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 12z Euro Ensemble still on board for our biggest snowstorm of the year on Sunday Evening!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 The 3 major 12z ensemble runs all look good for a potential wintry event next weekend...what can go wrong with only 1 week till game time?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 16 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: ...what can go wrong with only 1 week till game time?? No cold air...no 50/50 low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 I hope all the major cities get less than 5 inches this winter. This winter is a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Could get a severe outbreak on the ECM though so we have that 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Euro could whiten the ground with hail Would take either of these or a slot car ice storm. Chasing snow is a nightmare unless you go to W Philly... 43F/Breezy/sun breaking through....and now it's cloudy again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 SE PA and parts of NJ just got NAM'd for Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: No cold air...no 50/50 low I will try to be Positive Paul with this one.....wish me luck!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now