Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 ICON at 150 resembles the GFS 6z at the surface: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Have to love the parade of threats in the long range on that 6z GFS. Chances are 1 of them have to deliver. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Putting this here because it's a legit ob. TWC Classis Christmas playlists: https://search.freefind.com/find.html?si=95717179&pid=r&n=0&_charset_=UTF-8&bcd=÷&query=christmas 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 CMC is tucked....mix to rain. Trended colder tho and more coastal signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 GFS with the dreaded Bermuda low I think it sees the block.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: GFS with the dreaded Bermuda low I think it sees the block.. Confluence and flat jet ripping. No pna ridge this run. Shred factory....one of those wrenches in a Nina. Hopefully just a fluke run but is a possibility of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 I wish all cutters would go to Bermuda in the winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 I'll take this look 6 days out all the time on the GEFS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Meh the important storm is the following one Christmas week, need a nice track for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 12z gefs shared from Mid Atl: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 GFS today is running like a fast getaway with four blown out tires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Heckuva fantasy storm setting up day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, RedSky said: Heckuva fantasy storm setting up day 10 Not this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 19 minutes ago, RedSky said: Not this run Sheared and shredded. Nina theme. Patience. Throw enough chances one will work. Lets get thru the next 7 days eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Sheared and shredded. Nina theme. Patience. Throw enough chances one will work. Lets get thru the next 7 days eh? Like my fantasy storms dude, next weeks chance is 48hrs from having a genuine Sherlock Holmes clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 ECM and GEM are so close to an I95 pasting with plenty of time to go for the 16th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 21 minutes ago, RedSky said: ECM and GEM are so close to an I95 pasting with plenty of time to go for the 16th Hopefully we arent in a redux of 2021 where the GFS/GEFS led the way and the Euro/GGEM kept slowly caving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro is a disaster bro. Primary strong asf entire eastern US save for New England flooded with mild air. Not sure what youre seeing my friend. Euro with over a foot in some spots of Bucks and Lehigh counties - see above...of course just a model run but close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Euro with over a foot in some spots of Bucks and Lehigh counties - see above...of course just a model run but close I dont go by snow maps 6 days out, use the upper air charts at this range. I deleted my post intentionally as interior and North does ok. SE PA the norm. We take for mid Dec. Lots of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 I'll check back where we are after the weekend, impossible to make judgements this far out in either direction. So much can change in the next 72 hours. Nice to see a parade of threats lining up in the long range though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 I'm invoking the WDI (we're due index). I don't believe I had a warning level event last year. Mother Nature owes me bigly. Just nice seeing all those reds and blues where we want them for a change. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, JTA66 said: I'm invoking the WDI (we're due index). I don't believe I had a warning level event last year. Mother Nature owes me bigly. Just nice seeing all those reds and blues where we want them for a change. I feel like the last winter storm warning was 2016. I know that isnt true but feels like it. They truly are few and far between anymore or at least thats my perception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 JMA is an interior beat down: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hopefully we arent in a redux of 2021 where the GFS/GEFS led the way and the Euro/GGEM kept slowly caving. You would have to bring that up, now I member the 40 fantasy inches they delivered through day 10 over and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: You would have to bring that up, now I member the 40 fantasy inches they delivered through day 10 over and over. If it makes you feel better, the GFS recently had that upgrade, so wrt if it helped or hurt the model, we just cant know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If it makes you feel better, the GFS recently had that upgrade, so wrt if it helped or hurt the model, we just cant know yet. Sitting here looking at the 18z ECM ensembles made a significant move south into the GFS camp, unsettling. * first time seeing 12z too also south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Sitting here looking at the 18z ECM ensembles made a significant move south into the GFS camp, unsettling. * first time seeing 12z too also south 0z GFS continues the shred and south. Maybe it becomes a southern slider or trends back north time will tell. I think we have seen this song and dance before in the past though. Now with that said the zonal look does have me worried under the block, but hey the cold will come and line things up for maybe December 18th to 24th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 0z GFS is nothing next week lol CMC souther and an I95'er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, Kevin Reilly said: 0z GFS continues the shred. I think we have seen this song and dance before in the past though. Now with that said the zonal look does have me worried under the block, but hey the cold will come and line things up for maybe December 18th to 24th period. Going with a gut feeling here the GFS shred factory wins 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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