ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Through yesterday the month is running almost 18 degrees above normal! Today will start the trend back to cooler although we will still be a good 16 degrees above normal for the day. Overall temps for the next couple of weeks look normal to a few degrees above normal for mid January. However, even normal January temps can result in wintry events. While there is a small chance for some snow around Sunday evening....I am not at all enthused about that or any other snow chances over the next week to 10 days...but as we know forecasting is far from an exact science! The record high for today is 62 degrees set in 1950. The record low is 7 degrees below zero from 1904. The record rain is the 1.56" that fell in 1934. The daily snow record is the 3.6" that fell today in 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Since some folks are worried about having a couple of the least snowy winters in history within the last few years....I thought it a good time to again revisit how incredibly and unusually snowy we have been in this century (since 2000). I wonder if the younger folks that follow the weather will think that our recent snowy cycle is actually typical of this area? As the analysis I have posted here shows we have always experience very variable year to year snow seasons. But as you can see from below and I suspect we are due for some of the least snowy winters on record. Since 2000 we have experience 6 of our top 20 snowiest winters; conversely during that same time frame we have only had 3 of our least snowy winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 False start on the offense....5 yard penalty, repeat 3rd down. 3rd and 35 after the 12z suite so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just read an article in the newspaper...."Area heading for another snowless winter?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 It's becoming the big rain winter on the coasts. Ground is becoming like marshland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Too early to declare it a ratter but I have that same sinking feeling I had last Sunday watching the Saints opening drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 14 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Too early to declare it a ratter but I have that same sinking feeling I had last Sunday watching the Saints opening drive. Giants have nothing to play for since they clinched a spot and probably rest some starters. Birds at home, pissed off from the saints L and can clinch home field throughout. Birds 38-17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 57 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: False start on the offense....5 yard penalty, repeat 3rd down. 3rd and 35 after the 12z suite so far. Hey man the GEFS look like a relative crushing fwiw, which is not much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 I was thinking this winter is reminding me of 2012 so I looked it up and sorry I did, warning this gets depressing. Biggest thing I remember was little snow and lots and lots of rain. Turns out this December was .25" wetter than December 2011 while at the same time 5 degrees colder. UGH!. January 2012 precipitation total for Allentown was only 2.96" with 3.4" snow. Projecting through mid month we will be far wetter, and milder. The winter I never ever wanted to repeat.. yuck. February 2012 was a toasty +4.2F but only 2.77" 1.8" was snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 I swear every day looks the same anymore. Overcast, gloomy and too warm for snow... 58F/Cloudy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I swear every day looks the same anymore. Overcast, gloomy and too warm for snow... 58F/Cloudy Family member had solar installed early December and 27 of the last 30 days must have been overcast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Oh yeah today's forecast is mostly sunny, yet overcast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 Well, there's only one way to go from here and that's up, so there's that. I said patience is key this year. We may have to remain patient for a bit longer. I'm not punting heck my punt squad is still firmly planted on the bench. I know @RedSkysaid his threshold was Jan 15. I'm in it longer than that....til at least Prez Day. I'm not happy about this tho. Only plus is heat is off and windows open so that is refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 12 minutes ago, RedSky said: Family member had solar installed early December and 27 of the last 30 days must have been overcast lol. Still think you get "some" juice even w/clouds but not much... 54F/Cloudy...sun trying to make a guest appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Well, there's only one way to go from here and that's up, so there's that. I said patience is key this year. We may have to remain patient for a bit longer. I'm not punting heck my punt squad is still firmly planted on the bench. I know @RedSkysaid his threshold was Jan 15. I'm in it longer than that....til at least Prez Day. I'm not happy about this tho. Only plus is heat is off and windows open so that is refreshing. The threshold is based off a first half of winter dud, and how the next 30 days look to perform, not caring what happens in later February and March in the spring sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 12z ECM coming in way better than the GFS turd for the mid month January saver threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 ECM could even end squashing it into the southeast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Hey man the GEFS look like a relative crushing fwiw, which is not much GEFS have been great recently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 GFS - rain In Erie ECM - Atlanta snowstorm There is half a moon sized discrepancy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Nice kick in the nuts run for NW of I95, lucky there should be 0.01% confidence in this with the west coast chaos ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Do you really wanna be in the bull's eye this far out?? I like where we're sitting for now...by Monday Dr. No will have a cutter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 30 minutes ago, RedSky said: Nice kick in the nuts run for NW of I95, lucky there should be 0.01% confidence in this with the west coast chaos ongoing. JMA is a squasher fwiw. So we have everything from Buffalo cutter, to cold heavy rain, to a miss just South. I mean, the setup is what we want to see for an ECS, but where that plays out is TBD. I'm nowhere near all-in yet tho as I mentioned last week, transition begins around the 6th-8th, weak signal for the 11th. Then around mid month we have legit trackable events. So here we are, progression repeating like Dec, just prime climo now. Eta: I still want to choke on my own vomit at the lr ens but that also doesn't mean they are right....because honestly I don't believe they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 43 minutes ago, RedSky said: GFS - rain In Erie ECM - Atlanta snowstorm There is half a moon sized discrepancy here With that said hard to get a woody yet tho worth keeping a close eye on for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: With that said hard to get a woody yet tho worth keeping a close eye on for now. Eps looks about as good as you'd want right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: JMA is a squasher fwiw. So we have everything from Buffalo cutter, to cold heavy rain, to a miss just South. I mean, the setup is what we want to see for an ECS, but where that plays out is TBD. I'm nowhere near all-in yet tho as I mentioned last week, transition begins around the 6th-8th, weak signal for the 11th. Then around mid month we have legit trackable events. So here we are, progression repeating like Dec, just prime climo now. Eta: I still want to choke on my own vomit at the lr ens but that also doesn't mean they are right....because honestly I don't believe they are. What do you mean, everyone knows the ensembles have 100% accuracy from 15 days out when it shows a dumpster fire for snow in the east. They only flip flop when it shows a solid pattern. Weenie Handbook pg. 26. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 hours ago, RedSky said: I was thinking this winter is reminding me of 2012 so I looked it up and sorry I did, warning this gets depressing. Biggest thing I remember was little snow and lots and lots of rain. Turns out this December was .25" wetter than December 2011 while at the same time 5 degrees colder. UGH!. January 2012 precipitation total for Allentown was only 2.96" with 3.4" snow. Projecting through mid month we will be far wetter, and milder. The winter I never ever wanted to repeat.. yuck. February 2012 was a toasty +4.2F but only 2.77" 1.8" was snow. Still even that winter had a great all-time winter event...at least here in Chester County - 9" snowstorm in October and ended up with more than half our annual snowfall at ~19" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Getting a sun shower...very spring/summer like. 54F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Does anyone know why both KPTW ASOS (offline since November) and KMQS AWOS (offline since last week) are not reporting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 I 46 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Getting a sun shower...very spring/summer like. 54F It's raining here with only patchy strattocumulus very strange 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Temp departures are crazy to start this month. Philly at +17, Allentown and Reading at +15/+16 and Mount Pocono at +23! Had a midnight high of 59 degrees here, only made it to 58 this afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now