Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 27 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Ridge in the west showing up a few days ago looks to have been a mirage. All major ensembles showing the trough out there through 384. January looking more and more like a punt month. Hopefully we score a measurable light snowfall with those shortwaves next week because after that looks like it’s time to close the blinds again. I'm not going to disagree with you here. But I will just say ens can't even agree on some of the longwave features next week so it is tough to say we punt. I mean, if you are just using a seasonal look and siding with that moving forward I see your theory. I'm holding out hope still....MJO is finally looking to progress into 8-1. *IF* that happens it could be a game changer. I'm certainly.not willing to hang my hat on it but we are starting to see some changes in ssts in the equatorial PAC and with the jet retraction next week, so there is hope. Maybe you can get the punt team ready on the sideline, coach, but I wouldn't get them on the field just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Means nothing (or maybe?) but NBC10 has us in blowtorch red color for Jan. I mean the shitiest hot temp color according to his scale. Steve Sosna was the Met. I was trying to find a image but no-go... 55F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 It's a shame the ground is so wet, otherwise it would be a great day for a mow. 57F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Means nothing (or maybe?) but NBC10 has us in blowtorch red color for Jan. I mean the shitiest hot temp color according to his scale. Steve Sosna was the Met. I was trying to find a image but no-go... 55F I can't tell you the last time I watched a TV Met....not much they give you except the latest GFS.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Currently 61, dewpoint of 57. Feels like a warm summer morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm not going to disagree with you here. But I will just say ens can't even agree on some of the longwave features next week so it is tough to say we punt. I mean, if you are just using a seasonal look and siding with that moving forward I see your theory. I'm holding out hope still....MJO is finally looking to progress into 8-1. *IF* that happens it could be a game changer. I'm certainly.not willing to hang my hat on it but we are starting to see some changes in ssts in the equatorial PAC and with the jet retraction next week, so there is hope. Maybe you can get the punt team ready on the sideline, coach, but I wouldn't get them on the field just yet. I will say it's pretty encouraging that the mid range has 2-3 legit threats for measurable snow. None are perfect threats and all are looking fairly minor, but I'd be fairly surprised at this point if none of them bring measurable snow. They look messy, ie rain to snow or snow to rain, but I'm growing more confident that we at least see a 1-3"er in there so we at least will be over a trace on the season hopefully... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 63F Checking for bee's today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Best chance all yearN stream disturbance on 11th is our 50/50 which helps lock in whatever comes from the PAC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 27 minutes ago, RedSky said: 63F Checking for bee's today I saw a honey bee earlier, and thought of you, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 44 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I will say it's pretty encouraging that the mid range has 2-3 legit threats for measurable snow. None are perfect threats and all are looking fairly minor, but I'd be fairly surprised at this point if none of them bring measurable snow. They look messy, ie rain to snow or snow to rain, but I'm growing more confident that we at least see a 1-3"er in there so we at least will be over a trace on the season hopefully... The Sunday night possibility seems to have legs, definitely a thread the needle situation. It's got the wiggum rule working for it as of today, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 OT but was looking out west at some of the snow forecasts, this one at Mt. Shasta is wild! 73 to 95" of snow with gusts up to 115 MPH over 36 hours. Imagine witnessing that, basically a snowicane Today Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 20. Wind chill values as low as -16. Windy, with a south wind 60 to 70 mph increasing to 75 to 85 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 19 to 25 inches possible. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 12. Wind chill values as low as -15. Windy, with a south wind 80 to 90 mph increasing to 90 to 100 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 37 to 43 inches possible. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 12 by 3pm. Wind chill values as low as -17. Windy, with a south wind 80 to 90 mph decreasing to 70 to 80 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 19 to 25 inches possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, ChescoWx said: I can't tell you the last time I watched a TV Met....not much they give you except the latest GFS.... It's not like I watch them, news is on and they pop up. They say something and everyone fake giggles for no apparent reason. They know the majority of people like warm weather so they cater to them for ratings like 1+1 = 2...sinners! 64F/Darker clouds to the W over the abandoned McKeevers tavern where good times happened upstairs... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, ChescoWx said: I can't tell you the last time I watched a TV Met....not much they give you except the latest GFS.... Same. Only thing I check is Mt Holly because I have monster respect for the folks that work at that office @MGorse etc 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Newman said: Currently 61, dewpoint of 57. Feels like a warm summer morning. Flakes coming soon...several 60s around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Heisy said: Best chance all year N stream disturbance on 11th is our 50/50 which helps lock in whatever comes from the PAC . When we relied on the 50/50 for a threat back in December the NAO bamboozled us and weakened then the 50/50 became progressive and we failed. Not saying one way or the other just stating the facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 Soooo we've moved ahead from 2 discrete threats in the mid range that could get us on the board to a fantasy storm at Day 10ish because it is a better setup? OK, got it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 64F, at least something is moving in and active. Ain't snow but something. 64F and sunny in Jan would be more depressing to me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 with the Pacific Ocean controlling the storm production in this upcoming week, no one can count on the mid range GFS models. Period!!!! I would say, when snow shows up on the NAM/GEM, then get excited. The ocean lack of buoys in the western pacific are absolutely critical in providing data ingestion for accuracy in long range and especially mid range models. We have to wait for the storms to hit the coast first for more reliable data. This is the old fart way of handling this LA Nina pattern dying situation. This is coming from the ole Navy air traffic controller too. Be patient. By Sunday, we will have a better idea when the MJO swings into phase 8 too whether this new pattern can stay alive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 (Darth Vader voice) Never underestimate the power of the Pacific firehose This could be the strongest one of all time too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Soooo we've moved ahead from 2 discrete threats in the mid range that could get us on the board to a fantasy storm at Day 10ish because it is a better setup? OK, got it I haven't, I'm hoping we get a 1-3" "surprise" from at least one of them. Euro wants nothing to do with either of them though at 12z... Threat in the long range is basically noise to me at this point, lets see how it looks once we get into the mid range. A precarious set up that may lead to a SECS isn't something to be overly excited over at day 10. We've seen much better set ups this winter basically go to complete shit. In a progressive flow like we are in, there's almost no shot the models are nailing that set up 10 days out. Something to keep an eye on but I'd much rather focus on getting on the board for now and there's 2 threats in the mid range with that potential albeit minor. 1-3" will feel like 6-12" after the winter we've had so far... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Up to 65 here now for the high. Wiggum Rule in effect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 18 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I haven't, I'm hoping we get a 1-3" "surprise" from at least one of them. Euro wants nothing to do with either of them though at 12z... Threat in the long range is basically noise to me at this point, lets see how it looks once we get into the mid range. A precarious set up that may lead to a SECS isn't something to be overly excited over at day 10. We've seen much better set ups this winter basically go to complete shit. In a progressive flow like we are in, there's almost no shot the models are nailing that set up 10 days out. Something to keep an eye on but I'd much rather focus on getting on the board for now and there's 2 threats in the mid range with that potential albeit minor. 1-3" will feel like 6-12" after the winter we've had so far... Not you, just in general speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 10 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Up to 65 here now for the high. Wiggum Rule in effect Down to 62F, super light rain coating the ground. I'm very excited about this event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Same. Only thing I check is Mt Holly because I have monster respect for the folks that work at that office @MGorse etc Same here. I don't want to hear about what the "models" are showing. Do some damn forecasting, will ya? Anyway, yeah....NWS only for me. High of 65.9F today. Spring time! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 57 minutes ago, RedSky said: (Darth Vader voice) Never underestimate the power of the Pacific firehose This could be the strongest one of all time too "Atmospheric river". Sounds more menacing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 64.2F high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Made it up to 64 yesterday after a low of 50. Was expecting rain but it pretty much missed to the west and/or evaporated. Currently partly cloudy (much of it cirrus), a full moon setting at post time, and 55, with dp 55. Haven't seen fog here yet but I expect it might come soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 16 hours ago, The Iceman said: I haven't, I'm hoping we get a 1-3" "surprise" from at least one of them. Euro wants nothing to do with either of them though at 12z... Threat in the long range is basically noise to me at this point, lets see how it looks once we get into the mid range. A precarious set up that may lead to a SECS isn't something to be overly excited over at day 10. We've seen much better set ups this winter basically go to complete shit. In a progressive flow like we are in, there's almost no shot the models are nailing that set up 10 days out. Something to keep an eye on but I'd much rather focus on getting on the board for now and there's 2 threats in the mid range with that potential albeit minor. 1-3" will feel like 6-12" after the winter we've had so far... Well, the 2 threats in the MR are either doa or on life support. Looking at the lr ens don't exactly give a warm (pun intended) fuzzy feeling either. Tho we seem to have had the lr ens means fail verification quite regularly lately, so maybe we can verify opposite the crud looks depicted. @RedSky we just took a 13 yard loss on a 2nd down sack. 3rd and long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Well, the 2 threats in the MR are either doa or on life support. Looking at the lr ens don't exactly give a warm (pun intended) fuzzy feeling either. Tho we seem to have had the lr ens means fail verification quite regularly lately, so maybe we can verify opposite the crud looks depicted. @RedSky we just took a 13 yard loss on a 2nd down sack. 3rd and long? Looking like threat 3 in the long range is our last hope for awhile. Maybe we can pull off the one HECS then winter over like 2016? Similar to 2016 it’s been showing up consistently on the OPs and ensembles from a long way out. It’s a brief favorable window before the pattern goes back to hell. Maybe we get lucky again? Right now it looks like the pattern leans towards suppression and though that hasn’t been an issue this winter, it’s typical in Nina’s that you are sandwiched between cutters and suppressed. Im not all in on this threat yet but it’s definitely our best look of the winter so far. If that one fails though we are almost certainly looking at futility through at least the end of January. We can’t possibly have 2 all-time snowless winters in a 4 year period can we? Since its 3rd and 30, hopefully Mother Nature has Gannon as the d coordinator…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Getting weak...need snow soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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