Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2022 Author Share Posted December 31, 2022 EPS on board with the pattern progression now as well. Showed hints past few runs but finally jumped all-in with the EPO, quasi CPF, split out west, deep stj coming south of Baja under the pna, lower height anomalies in the se quadrant of the country, near normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 And the Dense Fog Advisory was extended to 6 pm. I had just heard on KYW at the top of the hour (3:02 pm) that the bridges were all down to 25 mph restrictions due to the dense fog. Quote Dense Fog Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 148 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2022 DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>022-026-027- PAZ054-055-061-062-070-071-101>106-312300- /O.EXT.KPHI.FG.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-221231T2300Z/ New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex-Warren- Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth- Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden- Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Coastal Ocean- Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware- Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery- Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Millville, Hammonton, Long Beach Island, Wharton State Forest, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Allentown, Bethlehem, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown 148 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2022 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central, northern, northwest and southern New Jersey and east central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you. && $$ Currently still foggy and 54 with dp 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Mt. Holly gave up and the Dense Fog Advisory is up until 4 am tomorrow morning. Quote Dense Fog Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 548 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2022 DEZ001-NJZ001-007>010-012>022-026-027-PAZ054-055-061-062-070-071- 101>106-010900- /O.EXT.KPHI.FG.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-230101T0900Z/ New Castle-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex- Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden- Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Coastal Ocean- Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware- Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery- Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Millville, Hammonton, Long Beach Island, Wharton State Forest, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown 548 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2022 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog. * WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware, central, northern, northwest and southern New Jersey and east central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you. && $$ Johnson The rain today - at least in the Philly metro area - hasn't been heavy enough to scour out the fog. Am guessing that will wil make for some freaky fireworks. Currently getting some light rain (have 0.04" in the bucket at the moment) and 53 with dp 53. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 @Ralph Wiggum and @Birds~69 hope you guys feel better soon! And Happy New Year to you and everyone in this subforum! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yo bud....doctors orders....well, not a real doc but a few buddies from this forum. Seems to be working, just woke from a slumber. LR gefs looks pretty amazing. Patience. Irish approved 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This is a solid look. Pattern progression mimicking past 4 weeks. Should see legit opportunities by mid month latest and moving forward from there. Is @The Icemanstill on a bridge preparing to jump? Wish he would see the light. Alright Ralph I’ll bite. The looks advertised on both the GEFS and EPS after day 11 look solid. And should get us favorable storm tracks. However still concerned about temps. GEFS has cold building and leaking into the lower 48 by the end of the run but EPS still doesn’t show a great air source. Combine that with warm ocean temps and I think 95 will have precip type issues even if we get good storm tracks. But still a more wintry look than wet. A lot better than these next 7 days at least. Have a happy new year! let’s hope the look holds the next 5 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Author Share Posted January 1, 2023 GFS is threading the needle for Friday. Light event but something. Verbatim probably issues accumulating due to precip intensity and warmish surface going in. That's the Euro and gfs on board for now. Eta: cmc on board but different looks more like a norlun waiting for UL energy to catch up to it Happy New Year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Happy New Year to the Philly forum. May this new year bring some good things to track! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Yeah so, am I truly the only one noticing/weirded out by this persistent sky glow/inversion/trapped light pollution pattern of recent weeks? Can anyone else back me up here? I keep consulting people in knowledgeable circles and people just ask me to get my health checked out. I’m not crazy and I do think I’m noticing an anomaly. In fact I think it had a big role in amplifying our fog today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Author Share Posted January 1, 2023 Happy 2023! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Author Share Posted January 1, 2023 A few frozen chances on the ops over the next 10 days. Nothing screaming monster storm but let's just get on the board. More robust chances coming after the 10th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Happy New Year! Yes, let's start by getting some flakes in the air, hopefully we'll have things to track as we get deeper into Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Author Share Posted January 1, 2023 Better look with the LP, worse look with HP. Been calling this one a thread the needle event and you can see why....a real balancing act. I think outside of some mangled wet flakes mixing this one is on life support but we do still have 5 days. An antecedent cold air mass would have done wonders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 East Nantmeal Township – Chester County PA (129 years of weather records) 2022 Climate Summary 2022 was the coolest year since 2014 and marks the 2nd consecutive year with average temperatures declining at both East Nantmeal and Glenmoore in Chester County PA. While East Nantmeal finished with just slightly above (+0.2) average temperatures, Glenmoore finished at 0.2 degrees below normal. Average High Temperature: 61.0 degrees (- 0.6 below normal) Average Low Temperature: 44.2 degrees (+1.0 above normal) Average Temperature:52.6 degrees (+0.2 above normal) Highest Temperature: 89.7 on July 23rd Lowest Temperature: 2.8 on the December 24th Total Precipitation: 52.42” (+2.24” above normal) Total Snowfall: 21.3” (14.5” below normal) 90-degree days: (1) which is 10 days below normal Growing Season (Freeze Free days): 182 days (11 days less than normal) Climate Notes: · 2022 was the 52nd warmest year on record the top 5 warmest being: 1) 1913 - 55.7 degrees 2) 1900 - 55.0 degrees 3) 1921 - 54.9 degrees 4) 1931 - 54.8 degrees 5) 2020 - 54.7 degrees 2022 was the 27th wettest year on record – the top 5 being:: 1) 2018 – 79.21” 2) 1996 – 75.12” 3) 2003 – 68.85” 4) 1979 – 66.88” 5) 1975 – 60.51” 2022 was the 36th least snowy year on record – the top 5 snowiest being: 1) 1899 (82.1”) 2) 1907 (75.7”) 3) 2014 (75.3”) 4) 2010 (72.4”) 5) 1996 (68.3”) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Looks like we also took a little step back on the potential good looking pattern mid month. Ugh. Gotta hope we get lucky I guess . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Author Share Posted January 1, 2023 13 minutes ago, Heisy said: Looks like we also took a little step back on the potential good looking pattern mid month. Ugh. Gotta hope we get lucky I guess . Only on the gefs. Geps and eps are full-on. The fact the gefs have been good in the lr is bothersome tho. Buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Author Share Posted January 1, 2023 Looks like the gefs backed off on the bridge jump from 6z in the lr. 12z better. Definite signal that guidance is struggling with a big pattern change. The transition Jan 5-7 should shed light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Author Share Posted January 1, 2023 That's a pretty deep slight neg tilt DEEP eastern US trof on the 12z gefs. There are increasing signals for something between the 11th and 15th give or take for days across guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Even though EPS looks “good” in LR it still concerns me that the snow mean is so garbage. Basically tells me that even though the average height pattern Jan 15-16 is good, how we get there on each individual ensemble member almost always doesn’t result in snow. Wake me up when we start getting some darker blues in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Finally, here is the best news in the few weeks. The pattern change appears to be coming around the 9th through the 11th. Looks like the ground may be at least white for a few weeks based on the MJO as it rounds the bases and maybe even goes through Phase 1 to 2. Looks real promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 9 hours ago, Albedoman said: Finally, here is the best news in the few weeks. The pattern change appears to be coming around the 9th through the 11th. Looks like the ground may be at least white for a few weeks based on the MJO as it rounds the bases and maybe even goes through Phase 1 to 2. Looks real promising. The GFS/GEFS don't quite get there though although some members are appearing in phase 8, but still not really a strong signal as yet. As some obs, after a 39 low on New Year's I made it up to 53 as a high (also finished the year with 0.37" of rain on 12/31, giving me a 2022 total liquid equivalent of a whopping 55.91"). Currently 41, with a little low stratus, and dp 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Our mild weather will continue through Thursday before a turn to more typical January temperatures by Friday. With the mild temps will come rain chances starting later tonight till Thursday morning and then again Thursday night into Friday. The record high for today is 62 set in 2000. The record low is 7 below zero from 1899. The daily rain record is 2.09" from 1948. Record daily snow is the 9" that fell today in 1925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 So this is the 23rd time in 129 years of recorded Chester County history that we have received less than 1" of snow through December. In only 3 of those 23 instances have we ended up with above normal snowfall for the remainder of the snow season. So the odds of above normal snowfall looks low. However, as we know our 3 snowiest months on average still lie ahead of us. So don't put away those snow blowers just yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Sounding like a pending SSW event was a head fake as I suspected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 We're scraping for flurries these days...rough times again. 54F/Mostly cloudy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Blinds shut and windows boarded over. On a positive note, it was a nice day to get out there and take down the outside Christmas decorations, 54F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 35 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Blinds shut and windows boarded over. On a positive note, it was a nice day to get out there and take down the outside Christmas decorations, 54F. I usually keep the inside/outside lights up/on till the Birds lose and done for the year. This way I may actually see snow one year w/the lights still up/on... 54F/Overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Showers/rain, dark to my W... 54F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 2 hours ago, Birds~69 said: I usually keep the inside/outside lights up/on till the Birds lose and done for the year. This way I may actually see snow one year w/the lights still up/on... 54F/Overcast Yeah we often keep them on one tree outside until sometime in March, lol, whenever it looks like we are done with snow, for that reason. It does look nice (with snow). Problem is, this year we never got around to putting them up. We had some on that tree but a buck must've got his antlers tangled in them, cuz we found a string in the field about 40 feet away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Here are some pictures from Niagra Falls NY. The first picture was exactly 7 days ago. The second is from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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