Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2022 Author Share Posted December 29, 2022 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Have a drink Ralph you still have all of February and March man. I have strep and start of scarlet fever. Only thing I'm drinking is pedialyte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I have strep and start of scarlet fever. Only thing I'm drinking is pedialyte Hard liquor kills all them bad germs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: In lieu of time restraints I can't repost the disco of mine from the Mid Atl thread. You should take a look. Progressing exactly as most have been stating....as long as not a head fake of course. Not sure how you can look at this and say pattern is crap: CPF even evident. Cmon man, you're better. The only thing going on in that forum is a 300-level statistics course A gorgeous sunny, 53F out there today. Heater catching a nice break after working overtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2022 Author Share Posted December 29, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2022 Author Share Posted December 29, 2022 Getting closer. Still have 8-9 days to adjust for better or worse. Let's thread this needle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 Getting closer. Still have 8-9 days to adjust for better or worse. Let's thread this needlePosted it over on NE. Need that TPV energy in SE Canada to continue to dive SE and trend stronger. Keep the separation between that and main wave and we got a shot. Hopefully start of a trend. Here is 18z vs 12z note difference in SE Canada. 18z front clears and HP gets to build in. Little too late this run for city but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2022 Author Share Posted December 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Posted it over on NE. Need that TPV energy in SE Canada to continue to dive SE and trend stronger. Keep the separation between that and main wave and we got a shot. Hopefully start of a trend. Here is 18z vs 12z note difference in SE Canada. 18z front clears and HP gets to build in. Little too late this run for city but close . I would lmao if this big warmup was shorter than anyone including myself thought and we enter our 'transition' period tracking legit discreet events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Getting closer. Still have 8-9 days to adjust for better or worse. Let's thread this needle You know the GFS rule you want this hundreds of miles off the coast, future cutter 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Getting closer. Still have 8-9 days to adjust for better or worse. Let's thread this needle As modeled and not the final outcome most likely but that would likely produce a sloppy inch or two in Media Delaware County rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I honestly don't think we see much of anything...some flakes maybe. No real support on the ens. The premise of my post was more to show the roller coaster with us possibly touching 60 then flakes a few days later. Eta: Euro has the temp swing and flakes as well. I just think the effect is pretty neat and somewhat predictable Just going by memory, no data, it seems that when the wiggum rule works it's usually accumulating snow, more than just flakes. We shall see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 9 hours ago, KamuSnow said: Just going by memory, no data, it seems that when the wiggum rule works it's usually accumulating snow, more than just flakes. We shall see! There is some truth in this. About 75% of the case studies were accumulating snow with 90% of those being greater than 2". GFS from 6z wants to fall into this category: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 Hopefully not a Nina head fake but 6z run was snow on snow on snow weenie run with things progressing much more favorably as mid January approaches with the woof woof building at the end. Ens are supportive of the progression towards a very workable pattern with a less hostile PAC that actually plays to our favor down the road. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 Pretty nice shift on the ens mean away from a PAC firehose extention with equatorial reach to a 250mb PAC retraction and poleward shift and beautiful split flow out West. Progression of the pattern going as expected with the transition being around the 7th (op actually uses a coastal to signal a more sudden/drastic shift) then fully evolved by the 15th. Ways out there but not much else to talk about during our current reload. Pretty much same evolution as 4 weeks ago but this time as we move ahead our rain storms from Dec should have better frozen chances as we enter prime climo. That is if the lw progression mimics the last. With the retract: Eta: I actually like how the NAO isn't as stout as 2 weeks ago here. Get the PAC side working....I will take my chances with a neutral NAO imstead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 ^^^that may not be a big dog KU slow crawling coastal signature but that is MUCH better than current and implies a wave train moving under the region with us on the proper side of the boundary. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 Just want to use the eps as a quick example since it anchors the TPV over Siberia and blocks any true CPF and has a more toasty look up top: Someone yesterday posted 2m temp anomaly maps like above to support their theory that the pattern going forward is crud. Again, I'm using the least favorable look EPS up top wrt those temp anomalies to show you we don't need a perfect setup or even near normal to get the surface near freezing. Even slightly AN 2m works during prime climo. It is below freezing at the surface same time on the means: In any event, I would not be basing the pattern on 2m temps. Look at the lw pattern overall. And while the EPS isnt as stout as the GEFS (more reliable lately) and GEPS, it still has enough cold to the North via the Aleutian low and EPO nose. The key is getting the 250mb pac to retract which all signs say that will happen. The cold will rebuild thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Looks SECSy, but not gonna pounce till the Euro, and CMC catch on. Considering the last storm, they may have it cut through Cleveland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Another beauty of a day coming up today with temps rising into the upper 50's - normal high temps are around 40 degrees. Rain moves in tomorrow afternoon and will last through New Years Eve. Sunday and Monday look to continue warm and sunny with temps in the low to mid 50's, More showers arrive on Tuesday night and Wednesday. We look to chill back closer to normal by Thursday and into next weekend. The record high for today is 63 degrees set way back in 1898. The record low is 9 below zero set in 1917. The daily rain record is 1.56" from 1912. Our daily snow record is the 3.8" that fell just 5 years ago in 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Was outside and needed to get out of the sun, too hot I was baking 60F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 The car's a furnace inside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Wear light, loose-fitting clothes and remember to drink plenty of fluids. 54F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Wear light, loose-fitting clothes and remember to drink plenty of fluids. 54F and check on the elderly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 12z GFS: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Fantasy storms are at a premium this winter relish the ones you get, at least the new improved GFS can still spit them out. 61F 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: There is some truth in this. About 75% of the case studies were accumulating snow with 90% of those being greater than 2". GFS from 6z wants to fall into this category: Yea the only problem is it's one run here and there. Our luck it most likely will find a way to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 High temp 62F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Those now very chilly ocean water temps 44 degrees are now impacting the NJ shore points...at the AC Airport it is currently 64 degrees while here on the barrier islands...in Sea Isle City NJ we are sitting at 48.2 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said: Yea the only problem is it's one run here and there. Our luck it most likely will find a way to fail. My expectations thru Jan 12 are lowish so I'm not expecting much outside of some fluke flakes or a fluke event we back into as we transition. My expectations for mid Jan forward are on the relatively higher side....not expecting wall to wall winter or a bunch of MECS but certainly more activity and finally cashing in with a few legit events. My patience is very high this season. We may very well have to deal with more warmups with colder active windows sandwiched inside. I mentioned this in my preseason outlook and stand by this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 One step forward, two steps backwards . 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 Wiggum Rule headed for a rare fail. 61F here today and I dont see how we muster a flake over the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 18z GFS and ensemble really like next week event. Only guidance really giving it a chance though. Funny how 6z and 18z GEFS snowfall mean look completely different than 12z. 6z/18z give the event a chance by separating the shortwaves and allowing it to redevelop. A sign for 00z runs or a GFS mirage? Find out in 5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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