Hurricane Agnes Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Some RERs for record warm low at some sites yesterday - My own "low" for Wednesday was 51 just before midnight last night. My high for yesterday was 55 and I got another 0.01" of leftover rain for a total of 0.12", and 0.98" as a 2-day event total. It's currently 48, partly cloudy with a Full Cold Moon setting, and dp 46. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 ^+500dm -NAO.. 4 SD's I think negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 GFS waffling between tasty wound up storms in the LR and shred factory not letting any sw survive the fast flow of the northern jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 So to summarize, we got another week of temps above freezing. Then the front next weekend will give us that first legit shot of cold air followed by what might be the first legit snow threat? We got two weeks to work with. Strap in kids! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Oh, Earth, is your reality internal or external! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 36 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: So to summarize, we got another week of temps above freezing. Then the front next weekend will give us that first legit shot of cold air followed by what might be the first legit snow threat? We got two weeks to work with. Strap in kids! Until the PNA cooperates, the way it appears to my old eyes is the EPO ridge forces the cold in behind these powerful fronts pushing the PJ underneath us. Thats obviously an ingredient we need. But in a Nina base we are always fighting the SER and the flow around it. So when the cold is plowing thru it fights against the SE ridge that wants to flex. This can work with neutral PNA (minus a raging EPO ridge) and we can cash in on gradient or boundary waves which is a more common pattern that can produce. But from my experience when we fight a -PNA and rely on a strong -EPO alone, we generally go cold/dry with sheared out systems under us. Not making a forecast on this but saying we want the -PNA to ease and not rely solely on a stout -EPO on the Pac side....otherwise we can get too much of a good thing (cold). We should be watching the ens and cpc to see what is going to happen with the PNA. A weak split off the W Coast could help too and there is sone promise down the road. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 The PNA will go.. Positive Dec19-29, watch models skew/trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The PNA will go.. Positive Dec19-29, watch models skew/trend Chuck im fine with a neutral or pos PNA. Im not a huge fan of seeing the EPO flex tho as it brings back memories of some past Nina's that were just cold/dry with a shred factory under us. We want the PNA to do as you noted and will monitor this but moreso keeping tabs on the EPO that ens are starting to flex. Eta: and with the tendencies for higher heights at high lat already being persistent this season, the EPO flex is a definite possibility. We could go warm/wet to cold dry back and forth. We will have chances but are going to need patience. We could be grinding teeth for periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 ENSO is kind of getting broadbrushed by greater global happenings. In the subsurface there is a +5-7f warm pool, when this moves across 180W, we usually go +PNA. This will be 3/3 indicators for the Dec19-29 period (another is global 40-45N consistency since Aug). Another is the strong reverse correlation of -0.70 to -0.90 of last years conditions: And last year we had our strongest -PNA on record for 10 days. That's like -0.90 correlation. I like that the STJ is wetter than normal. That's not that common for a La Nina, but that Kelvin wave hitting the central subsurface could be correlated (last years Kelvin wave was drier). I hate -EPO now as it's High pressure in the north, and today we have +500dm -NAO and record lows by 4-5 degrees. they eventually skew the overall pattern warmer. (Sorry I hate wasting my energy.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: ENSO is kind of getting broadbrushed by greater global happenings. In the subsurface there is a +5-7f warm pool, when this moves across 180W, we usually go +PNA. This will be 3/3 indicators for the Dec19-29 period (another is global 40-45N consistency since Aug). Another is the strong reverse correlation of -0.70 to -0.90 of last years conditions: And last year we had our strongest -PNA on record for 10 days. That's like -0.90 correlation. I like that the STJ is wetter than normal. That's not that common for a La Nina, but that Kelvin wave hitting the central subsurface could be correlated (last years Kelvin wave was drier). I hate -EPO now as it's High pressure in the north, and today we have +500dm -NAO and record lows by 4-5 degrees. they eventually skew the overall pattern warmer. (Sorry I hate wasting my energy.) Energy not wasted at all. Appreciate the engagement in a constructive discussion. Thanks for your research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Today looks to be our last above normal temp day for quite a while. Our temperatures looks to average near to below normal for most days between now and Christmas Day. There will also be multiple chances of some wintry weather. The first chance will be some snow mixing in with rain on Sunday into Sunday night and again on Wednesday. Mainly higher spots in the county over 550 ft will have chances to see some minor small accumulations on non-paved surfaces. The record high for today is 70 degrees from 1980. Our record low is 12 degrees from 1959. Daily rain record is the 1.94" from 1978. The daily snow record is 4.7" from 1917. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Overcast/ 48F Snow weenie trying to recruit more snow weenies for any upcoming snow removal on CL under gigs... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 12z trends look to be going north....on to next "event" or rumor of event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Anybody notice the new and worse GFS run comes out slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Anybody notice the new and worse GFS run comes out slower. And yet it still manages to produce a Festivus miracle with a GL low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 46 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: 12z trends look to be going north....on to next "event" or rumor of event! Ji? Let's hope it gets better. Low clouds, 50F. Looks like 40s highs for tomorrow and moving forward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Another overcast mostly sunny day. Keeps happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Back to back cutters with snow good one new GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 18 minutes ago, RedSky said: Another overcast mostly sunny day. Keeps happening. Shore cams were showing partly/mostly skies earlier. I'm happy w/my early fog/low clouds/overcast and 50F temps. Don't want any parts of sunshine. Overcast days you can put your hard labored outdoor lights on and people can see them and don't have to wait till nightfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Chistmas week is looking SECSY on the GEPS. That's a great 500 MB look if it comes to fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Just now, The Iceman said: Chistmas week is looking SECSY on the GEPS. That's a great 500 MB look if it comes to fruition. GEFS isn't bad either, not as pronounced +PNA but still much better than we are currently working with. Starting to like the potential from the 20th-30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Chistmas week is looking SECSY on the GEPS. That's a great 500 MB look if it comes to fruition. Paul Kocin would approve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Starting to like the potential from the 20th-30th. Just a few days ago we were looking at major warmth for Christmas week across guidance. Another flip-flop. We should get thru this week and next before jumping 336+ hours. That IS quite the unicorn on the GEPS tho ngl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 Ensembles continue to trend with the pattern and the gfs op seeing the pattern in effect. 6z delivers: Catalyst is the PNA popping out west. Watch the trends here as the NAO acrually retracts and retrogrades West eventually to the epo beyond this. Said +heights link up with a ridge centered over the Rockies. Really cool to watch the trends here and textbook how the NAO relaxes briefly as all this happens: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 6z gfs was a weenie run...at least 3 chances with another maybe largest threat brewing for late Dec 25ish. Not going to play out like this whatsoever but the model is feeling the effects of the pattern and reflecting in it's progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 We are starting a pattern today of seasonably cold temperatures that should last through much of the holiday season. In addition there will be multiple chances of rain and snow every few days during this stretch. The first such chance will be with some snow possibly arriving by Sunday AM changing to rain. More mixed wintry precipitation could arrive Wednesday night. The latest US Model (GFS) hints at a major snowstorm by next weekend....but we don't shovel models! The record high for today is the 71 degrees from 1966 (during the following 3 weeks almost 3 feet of snow would fall including over 20" with lightning on Christmas Eve 1966) The record low for today is 6 degrees from 1989. Record rain is the 1.80" from 2009. Our record snow was the 7.8" that fell today in 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 As we track model snow totals for the season - here is our 1st nice weenie map between now and Christmas Eve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 36 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: As we track model snow totals for the season - here is our 1st nice weenie map between now and Christmas Eve. @greenskeeper is lurking and tossing weenies....direct correlation between this and snowfall potential. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Digital snow/weenie clown maps is a start. I mean, there are years we don't even get that. 37F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now